GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Russian Government and Russian state companies are becoming ever more eager to expand their presence in Africa. Arms deals, energy contracts, political expertise and military assistance are all sought by several African countries. What does Russia have to offer these African states? Russia...

Eskom and electricity cuts are once again sabotaging South Africa’s economy

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Dec 2019

The South African economy is once again being sabotaged by Eskom. This is because on top of the substantial financial burden the state owned entity (SOE) has been placing on the fiscus, Eskom resumed its infamous scheduled power cuts, normally referred to as “load shedding”, in the past week. Wha...

New program contingent on prior actions, the IMF spokesman says

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Dec 2019

Yesterday, on Dec 12 Gerry Rice, Director of the Communications Department of the IMF made an interesting comment on Ukraine at the traditional IMF Press Briefing. He mentioned about prior actions that should be delivered by Ukraine before the Executive Board might approve new program for the cou...

The NBU slashes prime rate by 200 bps down to 13.5%

UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Dec 2019

The NBU Board decided to cut prime rate by 200 basic points down to 13.5% from December 13, according to the NBU press-release. Sharp consumer inflation slowdown to +5.1% y/y in November as well as positive news about staff-level agreement with the IMF are behind the decision. More rate cuts are ...

CBRT: Toward single-digit, asap...

TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2019

The Monetary Policy Committee reduced its policy rate (one-week repo rate) by 200 bps today, versus a consensus forecast of 150 bps, bringing the cumulative cuts since July to 1200 bps. We are not too surprised because, as we’ve written several times before, the goal here is to get to single-digi...

The December Economic Work Conference

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 11 Dec 2019 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: It is too early to say for sure, but it looks like the Economic Work Conference for later this month will settle on a GDP growth target of “around 6 percent”, which I interpret to mean 5.8 percent to 6.0 percent. There has been an enormous amount of deb...

Year-end inflation call: 9,000 percent

VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2019

Consumer prices in November accelerated somewhat less than we had forecast, the result of Black Friday discounts at retail outlets and gentler-than-expected bolivar depreciation. Hence, we are revising our November inflation forecast to 34 percent from our earlier projection of 40%. We revise...

Ukraine's debt to Russia disputed in London court

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2019

On December 9 the UK Supreme Court heard arguments about whether Ukraine had to repay a USD 3 billion loan to Russia. The debt matured in December 2015 plus interest. Ukraine maintains it ought to be allowed to challenge the debt. The Court of Appeal found in favor of Ukraine. The issue has been ...

Economics: A curious Private Infrastructure Accord

MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2019

Leading private sector representatives committed themselves to invest roughly 43 billion dollars in 147 projects under a National Private Sector Infrastructure Investment Agreement plan the government announced on November 26. Many sources appeared to confuse it with the government’s six-year Nat...

Gulf weekly: OPEC cuts, Aramco IPOs, Qatar hosts rivals and Qaboos has cancer tests

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco raised $25.6bn in its IPO, but foreign investors (mainly Gulf SWF) only provided $2bn. * Qatar’s Emir was invited to the Gulf Summit in Ri...

Ukraine allows private companies to make alcohol

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2019

On December 2 the Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) voted to end the state monopoly on the production of liquor. This law was a hangover from the Soviet era. The law also provides for the total liberalization of alcohol exports.The state liquor company Ukrspirit is due to be privatized. It has 41 facto...

Manila’s water problems

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Dec 2019

On Tuesday, Manila’s business elites found themselves at the receiving end of President Duterte’s latest tirade. The cause? A ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in Singapore for government to pay Manila Water, one of the metropolis’s two water concessionaires, P7.39 billion (~$145 milli...

South Africa’s Q3 current account deficit narrows on the back of improved terms of trade

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Dec 2019

Today the South African Reserve Bank released the latest current account data that shows the country’s current account deficit narrowed in the third quarter of 2019 - falling from R208.7 billion during the second quarter of 2019 to R190.3 billion in the third quarter, a narrowing of R18.3 billion...

Russo-Chinese pipeline flows

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2019

On December 2 the first gas flowed through the Power of Siberia Pipeline. This supplies LNG from Russia to China. The 3 000 km long pipeline is operated by Gazprom the Russian State gas company. The China National Petroleum Corporation is the partner on the Chinese side. In 2014 the two countries...

Russia-Bulgaria diplomatic row

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2019

On December 5 Russia kicked out a Bulgarian diplomat in reprisal for Bulgaria refusing a visa to a Russian defense attache. In October Bulgaria expelled a Russian diplomat for 'activities incompatible with diplomatic status' which is a euphemism for spying. Russia is Bulgaria's main energy suppli...