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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Institutional crisis continues to be fueled
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2020

Despite the increase of coronavirus cases in the country, the institutional crisis between the president and the governors continues and is even affecting President Bolsonaro’s cabinet. On Sunday, the president – who has seen several of his advisers and assistants infected by the virus – took to ...

Economics: A lowered outlook on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 30 Mar 2020 · 2 responses

A review of the economic news published in March reinforces the image of a recessionary economy at a time when official policy leaves Mexico particularly exposed to the unprecedented challenges posed globally. Well before oil prices crashed, and COVID 19 and its potential ramifications began to e...

Politics: AMLO approval slips, perceptions flip
MEXICO · Report · 30 Mar 2020

The huge margin of approval enjoyed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador throughout his first year in office has vanished, according to the latest GEA-ISA poll. The president should find those results especially troubling considering the wide edge he enjoyed throughout the spring and early autumn. Furt...

Congress's fight against the coronavirus crisis and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2020

The deadline for creation of political parties and party affiliations ahead of the October elections is April 4. Representative Rodrigo Maia may conclude a constitutional amendment proposal on the “war budget”, which would give the government greater flexibility to tackle the crisis created by th...

COVID-19 hit heavily
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Mar 2020

Just one day after our previous report was released, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced the first two cases of coronavirus in Jakarta. The first two cases were part of a cluster in a dancing club where a foreigner had recently been. Apparently, the foreigner was infected by the COVID-19 v...

Parliament approves anti-Kolomoyskiy bill, new Finance Minister appointed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Mar 2020

Parliament has voted in so called anti-Kolomoyskiy law from the ‘list-to-do’ of the IMF. The law blocks return of nationalized Privatbank to its former owners Igor Kolomoyskiy and Genadiy Boholyubov. It was only first reading and more work should be done but it’s already a great step forward. Res...

The little we know: an overview of bits and pieces
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Mar 2020

The Covid-19 epidemic has still failed to explode in Hungary (thanks God). The cumulative number of total cases was 447 this morning, and it is slowly building up day by day, without any notable acceleration. What is accelerating, though, is the number of virus tests (currently at 13301), given t...

Limits to China’s fiscal stimulus
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Mar 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The debate about 2020 growth expectations continues to intensify in policymaking circles, with CICC reducing its 2020 GDP growth forecast last week from 6.1 percent to 2.6 percent. • While many officials continue to call for China to return as quickl...

The Recession Depth and Fiscal Consequences
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Mar 2020

There are two possible reactions to the propagation of the COVID-19: impose social distancing (lockdown), which attenuates the loss of lives; or allow it to evolve until producing “herd immunity”, which happens when the number of people who have been infected is large enough that the virus cannot...

Deflation appears likely in 2020
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Mar 2020

With a partial lockdown in effect (and tightening), a sharp recession is expected in the second quarter at minimum. Inflation is expected to be negative this year due to weak demand, lower rental prices and lower energy prices. A unity government is likely to facilitate budget approval and a more...

U.S. indictments escalate pressures
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Mar 2020

On March 26, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed indictments against 14 members of the Maduro regime, including Nicolás Maduro, Diosdado Cabello, Maikel Moreno, Chief Justice of the Supreme Tribunal, and Vladimir Padrino, minister of Defense. Charges include money laundering, drug trafficking...

Fiscal deficit likely to reach 8%-9% GDP this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Mar 2020

The fiscal deficit is like reach 8%-9% GDP this year. We are taking into account the following assumptions: Israel was running an underlying deficit of around 3.0%-3.5% before the crisis, if we ignore the demands and past legislation which would have pushed this deficit even higher. This addition...

Deflation appears likely in 2020
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Mar 2020

Highlights of our weekly macro report: The Employment Agency is reporting a huge increase in the demand for unemployment benefits. Unemployment is expected to reach 20%. We are revising our inflation forecast down to -0.3% in the NTM. This downward revision is due to the recession, lower energy p...

Minister of finance and Minister of healthcare resign
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Mar 2020

Minister of finance, Igor Umanskiy and Minister of healthcare, Ilya Yemets have resigned, according to Facebook page of Iryna Gerashchenko, an MP from European Solidarity. Several media confirmed that candidates for the vacant posts have been interviewed today by MPs from Servant of the People. M...

Health and economic anxiety escalating
TURKEY · Report · 29 Mar 2020 · 2 responses

Turkey begins a critical week in its battle against the COVID-19, as the rise in patients reach the stage of explosive growth. At an estimated rate of cases doubling every three days, Turkey could report as many as 30K patients by the end of next week, which would overwhelm the health system. Pre...

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