GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In the last two months, the Colombian government has lost every single political contest: it declined dramatically in the polls, where president Duque’s favorability is going steadily south; then it was defeated in the regional elections, where Uribe’s party lost its key strongholds; then in the ...

The first round of Constitutional reforms was a failure… but there is hope for a positive outcome next year

PANAMA · Report · 25 Nov 2019

The economy is growing slowly but steadily (3.25% through September according to the Monthly Index of Economic Activity). The 2020 budget is consistent with this pattern and therefore will not be expansive, given the limitations of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (a 2.75% deficit ratio for 2020). T...

Economics: Risks for 2020 public finance stability

MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2019

The problems posed by the strict austerity the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has pursued as it strives to sustain its deficit and public debt targets were on clear display not only in public finance results through the first nine months of the year, but also in the 2020 federal spendi...

Politics: AMLO sets his sights on the Electoral Authority

MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2019

In a pattern that has become apparent to most observers of the recent rise of populist regimes and the manner in which they manage to dismantle democratic institutions and entrench themselves in power, during its first year in power the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been...

EL SALVADOR: They still love him – weak economy and all

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Nov 2019

El Salvador experienced deflation in October, for the third month in a row, while core inflation has remained at virtually zero for the past 12 months. Economic activity continued to gradually slow, as merchandise exports fell, and foreign remittances and lending to the private sector were depres...

Russia tries to increase RUB transactions

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

On November 25 major Russian business newspaper RBK reported that the Ministry of Economic Development is aiming to increase the % of foreign transactions done in RUB from 20% at present to 30% by 2024. In 2019 14% of exports are paid for in RUB and these are mostly to former Soviet countries. 30...

Rates remain on hold today

ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

Policy rates remained stable but the loosening bias was maintained. The summarizing statement was clear:"it will be necessary to leave the interest rate at its current level for a prolonged period or to reduce it in order to support a process at the end of which inflation will stabilize around th...

Russia might be banned from the Olympics

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2019

On November 22 the World Anti Doping Agency (WADA) announced that it recommended that Russia be regarded as non-compliant. The decision has not yet been reached. WADA stated that there was proof of data from the Russian Anti Doping Agency (ADA) being tampered with. On December 9 WADA's executive ...

The IMF leaves: no signs of close deal

UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Nov 2019

The IMF mission left Ukraine today. The Minister of Finance posted on her Facebook page the letter below. She commented that everything goes well and they’ve reached substantial progress in negotiations. Media wrote the IMF asks questions about Kolomoyskiy and keeps concerns on the NBU independen...

Russian policymakers spar over growth

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2019

On November 20 VTB held its annual Russian Calling Investment Forum. Top Russian ministers rowed over who is culpable for the country's anaemic economic growth. The Minister for Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin said that low demand explained feeble growth and that the central bank has miscalcu...

Another round of elections appears increasingly likely

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Nov 2019

The head of Blue and White (Gantz) announced that he has failed to form a coalition in the 28 days allotted to him, following a similar period in which Netanyahu tried to form a government.We now go to a 21-day period in which anyone can try to form a coalition, but this will require the approval...

The government submits a new tax reform

ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Nov 2019

Minister Martinez will be submitting today a new tax reform much leaner than the failed bill of last week. The new bill needs to have different proposals to be considered as new piece of legislation and be treated as urgent and be in effect next year. This reform if approved will help the governm...

Land reform in Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2019

A bill is going through the Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) that would speed up land reform. There is a seven year minimum term for the lease of farm land. The government is trying to abolish this limit. There are restrictions on the sale of 41 million hectares. In 2001 a law was passed which banned ...

Economics: Mixed credit market signals in 3Q19

MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2019

The economic slowdown has partially discouraged businesses from taking out loans or tapping into other financing sources in Mexico, but demand for consumer credit remains strong while mortgages and other housing-related credit grew slightly. We observed the private sector making more debt pl...

The “Alliance for Brazil” marks a restructuring of Brazil’s party system and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2019

Arrests after a higher court conviction will be a point of discussion in the Lower House and Senate. Wednesday is the deadline for the presentation of amendments to MP #905/19, which deals with labor contracts. The Senate will vote on the Parallel Pension Proposal. On Thursday, the First National...