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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Squaring off in decisive Legislature
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2020

The third and last year of the federal legislature elected along with President López Obrador in 2018 holds special importance for AMLO’s governing project. Given the risk that the government’s commanding majority in the Chamber of Deputies may not survive the June 6 midterms, he is looking to lo...

Economics: External accounts project uncertainty in the near future
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2020

External account data clearly captured the extent of the profound economic contraction in April-May, including a precipitous fall in demand that tended to ease up during June-July, but as yet there is no evidence of a clear recovery trend. Second quarter balance of payments results showed Mexi...

Two bits of good news on retail sales and industrial output
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2020

Most recent data releases by the Statistical Office (KSH) have provided for some rare good news on the economy, even if only in relative terms.For one, retail sales rose by 1% yoy in July, following -4.3% yoy in Q2, the latter contributing to a -8.6% yoy outcome for household consumption in the s...

Fiscal deficit reaches 8.1% GDP LTM, tax revenues surge in August
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Sep 2020

Domestic demand improved in August, but renewed closure likely: • Weekly credit card purchases increased by 3.8% m/m in August, both due to summer seasonality but in addition the fact that Israelis remain home this summer is private consumption supportive. • Consumer confidence improved in Augu...

Kazakhstan bans foreign accounts for bureaucrats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Sep 2020

On September 2 Kazakhstan announced that politicians, bureaucrats, judges and relatives thereof will be forbidden from having bank accounts in other countries. This is because some public officials have been found to have salted away huge sums of money that cannot be accounted for. Media reports ...

Gas hopes, harsh realities
TURKEY · Forecast · 06 Sep 2020

Ankara is trying to turn around a weak economy and poor local sentiment through divisive politics, confrontational foreign policy and promises of great riches from gas discoveries. Will it work? We don’t see how it possibly could, which means further market volatility is highly likely, making the...

Fiscal deficit reaches 8.1% GDP LTM, tax revenues surge in August
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Sep 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 7.9.20 Domestic demand improved in August, but renewed closure likely: Weekly credit card purchases increased by 3.8% m/m in August, both due to summer seasonality but in addition the fact that Israelis remain home this summer is private consumption suppo...

Government forced to finance a 9.3% of GDP deficit
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 06 Sep 2020

Just two weeks after taking office, President Luis Abinader faces the urgent task of financing a public deficit that is almost four times higher than it was before the pandemic. Due to the fall in tax revenues, and to greater pressure on spending to address the health crisis and reactivate the...

It’s time to (cautiously) reopen
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Sep 2020

The unprecedented 15.7% contraction in Q2 was hardly a surprise. But there is uncertainty over the distribution of “pain” across sectors and aggregate demand, and the depth of the collapse. Almost all sectors were hard hit. But agriculture, financial and insurance activities, and real estate acti...

Government withdraws request for urgent status for the Tax Reform proposal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2020

Today, September 4, the government withdrew its request for urgent status for the Tax Reform proposal it submitted to Congress. If the request for urgent status (submitted on July 21 along with the proposal) were granted, the text would block the agenda next week, preventing the Lower House from ...

No deflation in August, by year-end inflation is likely to exceed 4%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020

Rosstat reported that m-o-m inflation was at 0% in August, even though some deflation due to seasonal factors was earlier expected. Even though prices of fruits and vegetables fell, so that food prices in total were down by 0.9% m-o-m, and by 1.0% y-o-y, it was not enough to offset increased pric...

Russia’s political and pandemic update: Russia’s alienation to deepen amid Navalny saga
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2020

As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Russia exceeded 1 mln people, while Russian economic performance has improved in recent months, Russians became a bit more optimistic in August, even though the daily numbers of newly infected people stopped declining in mid-August and fluctuated below...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai issues, Oman VAT approved, PMIs weaken, Israelis fly to UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Sep 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Dubai issued $2bn in bonds and sukuk, and Bahrain started talks with banks about an issuance to take advantage of the sharp fall in yields. * The first Israel-UAE flight t...

US concerned about new Chinese army base in Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020

On September 2 the US Government said that China is seeking to establish a military base. Beijing has a deeply sympathetic relationship with Dushanbe. Chinese companies are increasingly important in the economy. There are 7,000 Russian troops in Tajikistan. Russia regards this former Soviet count...

President of Kazakhstan plans to reorganize the state
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020

On September 1 Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev addressed his people. He announced a major overhaul of state structures. The Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms will be set up. Another as-yet-unnamed agency will be created to manage economic competition.There is growing disenchantment with economic sta...

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