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Hungary prospects for 2021 depend on vaccines and EU talks
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Nov 2020

Finance minister Varga spoke yesterday on Hungary's economic prospects, in the context of a three-year fiscal plan that the government is currently working on. He said that for 2020 they expect -6.4% GDP growth, a fiscal deficit of 9% of GDP and an end-year debt ratio of 78-80%. For 2021, there i...

The National Dialogue begins amid dismal GDP numbers: what to expect on both issues
PANAMA · Report · 25 Nov 2020

November 26 is the government's date to open the discussion of the reforms on several important issues for the basic institutions of the country, with the participation of the main stakeholders in the Panamanian society under the United Nations' aegis. The dialogue - called "Closing the Gap" - wi...

Covid-19 weekly update – confusion in the growth of industrial stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 Nov 2020

Weaker property sales, declining traffic volume in some cities suggest a decline in economic activity. However, float glass prices remain strong and blast furnace operating rates are near flat. Film box office showed some gains but this may be the result of a new mix of films in theaters. The...

Coronavirus rising in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2020

On November 24 Russia stated that there were 507 coronavirus deaths. That is the highest ever. There were close to 27,000 new infections. The healthcare system is struggling. The death toll is almost 38 000. Many believe that the true figure is much higher. There have been 120 000 more deaths YoY...

Russia prolongs food sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2020

On November 21 Moscow announced that the counter-sanctions on Western food products will last until at least the end of 2021. This is a Russia's retaliation for the sanctions most NATO nations imposed in 2014.Counter-sanctions have hit some sectors of EU farming. Russian farmers have gained from ...

​Turmoil in AKP sparks currency flash
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Nov 2020 · 2 responses

Turmoil in AKP ranks is becoming very visible, as Erdogan allows MHP leader Bahceli to dictate policy for his beloved party and regime. As Covid-19 “patient” count jumps to 7,381/day Tuesday, I witness first protests in front of overcrowded hospitals .I think the sudden jump in dollar/TL was prec...

President Ramaphosa’s drive to address South Africa’s need for investment
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Nov 2020

Since assuming office back in 2018, President Ramaphosa has been on a mission to raise capital for the SA economy’s growth recovery. From a demand perspective, three things that make up GDP can determine the quantity and direction of economic growth: domestic consumption, investment and the trade...

Ozon shares surge in American IPO
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2020

On November 24 the Russian online retail company's shares leapt by over 33% in just a few minutes trading. This is the hottest Russian IPO in years. The company now has valuation of over USD 7 billion.Ozon is the second biggest online retailer in Russia. It aims to achieve market dominance.The NA...

Georgian ruling party wins election due to opposition boycott
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2020

On November 21 the Georgian Dream Party won the parliamentary election. This was the second round. The first round was in October.Opposition parties demanded that the first round be rerun due to what they said was cheating. Georgian Dream won 48% in that round to 27% for the United National Movem...

Preliminary Good News from the IMF
ECUADOR · In Brief · 23 Nov 2020

The statement published by the technical team from the IMF provides good news regarding the latest review of the necessary requirements to access to the upcoming second disbursement of $2.0b under the program. The staff considers those requirements have been met, and albeit this assessment has to...

Ukraine sanctions Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2020

On November 20 Kyiv announced sanctions against Belarus. Ukraine did this along with Northern Macedonia and Montenegro. These three countries are striving to be accepted into the EU. Ukraine said the move was due to the violent crackdown against peaceful protesters. The sanctions include asset fr...

Politics: The rising toll of presidential mismanagement
MEXICO · Report · 23 Nov 2020

Political and economic analysts are beginning to ask the basic question of how much worse the economic, health, and security crises can get and, above all, when and how the growing social discontent with the president's problems and mistakes will be expressed. Two developments in the past two wee...

Russia’s 2021 Outlook: Economy to bounce back amid low base effect
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 23 Nov 2020

In 2020 Russian GDP is expected to contract less, namely by 3.3-3.4%, than was considered previously – not least due to upward revisions of some of the previously published statistical data. In 2021 the economy can grow about 3.2% - assuming other factors being equal, namely no major deterioratio...

Guatemala: Back to the streets
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Nov 2020 · 1 response

Major civil protests asking for the resignation of President Alejandro Giammattei and opposing the large deficit in next year´s budget took place in the streets of Guatemala City and some other major domestic locations this weekend. As usually happens in events of this type, small groups took a m...

Economics: Myopic view of debt portfolios
MEXICO · Report · 23 Nov 2020

The cumulative flow of financial and economic data points to an extension of the negative impacts that accompanied the novel coronavirus pandemic, an effect that could be further exacerbated next year in some sectors. The authorities have been blindly flailing with the policies they have applied ...

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