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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 22
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Brazil Economics databank Aug 17
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Central America databank Jul 30
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Chile databank Jul 31
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 3
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Ecuador databank Jul 28
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 14
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Hungary databank Jul 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jun 24
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Panama databank Jul 6
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Peru databank Jul 30
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Philippines databank Aug 7
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Poland databank Jun 18
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Russia Economics databank Aug 14
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South Africa databank Aug 12
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Turkey databank May 11
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Ukraine databank Jun 15
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Venezuela databank Aug 6
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Rumor that Russia will reduce share of USD in National Wealth Fund
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019
On November 7 media stories appeared saying it is rumored that Russia will cut the share of USD in its sovereign reserves. An anonymous source in the Ministry of Finance was cited. The government is changing the fund's structure with a view to improving the pension system. Russia has been de-doll...
Polarization likely to remain intense and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2019
President Jair Bolsonaro will deliver a set of post-Pension Reform proposals to Congress. Pre-salt auctions take place on Wednesday. The Senate may vote on the Parallel Pension Reform proposal, which includes states and municipalities. On Thursday, the Federal Supreme Court resumes discussion on ...
Davids beat the Goliaths
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Nov 2019
Many an analyst is puzzled that the Central Bank has been holding interest rates constant, while its regional counterparts have started cutting. And the fact that the Bank’s next move next year might be a hike is considered by some to add insult to injury. But we don’t see a puzzle: Colombia is i...
Russia launches icebreaker warship
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019
On October 25 Russia announced the existence of a new combat icebreaker named Ivan Papanin. The purpose of the vessel is to defend the Russian Arctic. Earlier in October over 12 000 troops participated in nuclear war drills in the Russian Far North. Russian claims some of the Arctic Shelf althoug...
It is official, Alberto Fernández is the new president-elect
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019 · 1 response
Past midnight, with 97.1% of the voting tables accounted for and an overall participation rate of 80.9%, it is official now. Alberto Fernández (AF) and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) are the new presidents-elect of Argentina. AF managed to obtain 48% of the votes (surpassing the 45% hurdle ...
E-day
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Oct 2019
Today’s results of the general elections in Argentina, which are expected to be published between 9 pm and midnight, will put an end to the political limbo that emerged after the surprising result of the primaries in August. The electoral outlook that had been previously nourished by polls, drast...
Bank of Russia cuts interest rates
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Oct 2019
On October 25 the Bank of Russia cut the interest rate to 6.5%. The atmosphere of low inflation, poor domestic growth and the distinct possibility of a worldwide economic slowdown all contributed to the decision. The previous interest rate was 7%. The bank also cited the government's tardiness is...
Policy debates and poor implementation in South Africa are further delaying economic recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 24 Oct 2019
Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: Recovery of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019 helped to contain the growing pessimism regarding the South African (SA) economy. Not only did GDP growth surprise on the upside, but it also meant an aversion of a second technical recession in...
South Africa’s main opposition party in a leadership crisis as three leaders resign in one week
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Oct 2019
South Africa’s main opposition party is the Democratic Alliance (DA), and yesterday its leader, Mmusi Maimane, resigned as party leader. His resignation follows this week’s earlier resignation by DA’s Herman Mashaba as mayor of Johannesburg (the country’s most prosperous region), of which the DA ...
Gulf support likely if Lebanon's budget mollifies other donors
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Oct 2019
The cabinet approval of an ambitious 2020 budget is an important step but it still needs parliamentary approval and many details remain unclear, particularly on cutting interest on local debt. Its proposal to cut the deficit by 10 percentage to -0.6% of GDP is unrealistic but even going half this...
Hopes for an economic rally rise
UKRAINE · Forecast · 22 Oct 2019
People are calling the new Verkhovna Rada the “green (or mad) printer”: green for the Sluha Narodu’s party colors, and printer due to the speed at which this legislature is spitting out bills. Debates over legislation are very brief and largely token, which means that Ukraine will likely discover...
Oslo talks, uncertainty, and sanctions will continue
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Oct 2019
After two months of silence, the regime seems to have presented a counteroffer to Norwegian diplomats mediating Venezuelan regime–opposition talks. The details aren’t public, but it’s likely that it follows the agreement the regime reached with the four minority ‘loyal” opposition parties. That a...
Essential CIS Politics: October 2019
CIS POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2019
The Russian economy is growing only very modestly, but public finances are sound. The Ukrainian conflict has slowed down, and Kyiv and Moscow have agreed to the Steinmeier Formula, which has caused protests in Ukraine. Belarus and Russia have agreed in principle to tangible progress on reunificat...
Low risk of alteration in the Pension Reform proposal and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2019
President Bolsonaro will spend the week travelling through Asia and the Middle East. The Senate votes on the second round of Pension Reform. The government has promised to announce a post-Pension Reform agenda on Wednesday, October 23. The STF discusses arrests following conviction by a higher co...
Politics: Legislative tide, failed security policy
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2019
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has achieved a great deal in Congress in the past few months and weeks to advance the cause of his broader political project. This week we look at a dozen of his most important legislative accomplishments to date as well as a number of lesser bills. While man...