GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU or EEU) is the latest and most comprehensive of decades-long attempts to use economic interdependence in the Eurasian continent, to keep former Soviet Republics under the sphere of influence of Moscow. Today, the EEU is a limited Customs Union with a Common Exter...

Ending the year with optimism

INDONESIA · Report · 30 Dec 2019

In his speech during the Annual Bankers' Dinner recently hosted by Bank Indonesia, President Jokowi appeared confident that the Indonesian economy will remain resilient in the face of the slowdown of the global economy. At the same time, he emphasized the need to look for new resources to keep th...

Growth slowly recovers

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 30 Dec 2019

Preliminary figures indicate that economic activity has continued to slowly recover. The monthly indicator of economic activity for September and October estimated real GDP growth at 5.1% and 5.2%, respectively (to August, the monthly average was 4.7%). We expect that November and December figure...

How different could 2020 be?

PERU · Report · 27 Dec 2019

The electoral campaign to replace the dissolved Congress seems to have failed to gain momentum. The latest polls find that nearly half of voters haven’t decided who to vote for in the January 26th contest. While some surprises could emerge, the results will most probably favor President Martín Vi...

Gulf weekly: Khashoggi trial concludes, Divided Zone oil restart is agreed

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. As of today, we are shifting to a Friday publication schedule in an effort to provide swifter coverage than our previous Sunday schedule. Headlines include: * The tria...

Stick and carrot

ECUADOR · Report · 24 Dec 2019

After the unsettling riots of last October, the Assembly has given stick and carrot to the government. First, a majority of over 70 votes denied the proposed economic bill sent by the Ministry of Finance as urgent at the beginning of November. Albeit there were political motives behind this den...

Economics: Ending 2019 on a low note

MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The economic indicators and news from the final weeks of 2019 added to the general impression of a softening economy, with especially troubling declines in both consumer spending and private investment, even as the retreat in industrial production deepened. Gross fixed investment accelerated its ...

The Cabinet decided today to withdraw a controversial proposal for Constitutional reform and called for a “national debate” sponsored by the UNDP (United Nations).

PANAMA · In Brief · 23 Dec 2019

The reform was a leading campaign issue by all the parties in the recent presidential contest. Cortizo and the PRD party opted for following a long process of modifications established in the Constitution: two approvals by the Legislative Assembly plus a national referendum. The draft of the init...

Politics: Potential democratic institutional demise

MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey coincides with all the other polling data published in the past month on the seemingly contradictory phenomenon of President López Obrador's continuing to enjoy strong yet somewhat weaker approval numbers at the same time as the government he presides over gets...

SAUDI: Khashoggi verdict won't mitigate criticisms that are discouraging FDI

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 23 Dec 2019

Sentences were issued today by the Saudi court trying those accused by the public prosecutor of involvement in the October 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. A brief statement from the public prosecutor said that, of the 11 Saudi nationals put on trial, 5 were sentenced to death fo...

Inflation likely to surprise on the upside in 2020

ISRAEL · Report · 23 Dec 2019

Recent indicators (IP, revenues) point to steady growth in early Q4 2019, unsupportive of lower rates. Residential starts/completions remain fairly strong, supportive of a modest increase in housing/rental prices. We expect inflation to reach 1.2% in the NTM, above market expectations.

2020 growth target likely to be about 6%

CHINA · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held by top leaders December 10th-12th emphasized “stabilities.” We believe that “around 6%” is the likeliest 2020 growth target. Infrastructure investment was mentioned, suggesting that infrastructure spending will be used to support the economy...

Forecast with a fork

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 23 Dec 2019

We visualize a single base case for 2020 that splits into two scenarios for 2021–2022. In 2020, the Maduro government runs public policy all year, incentivized by the promise of an electoral victory. The policy stance on price setting and exchange rates stays relaxed, although the legal appara...

Russia risks damaging relationships over Libyan intervention

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2019

On December 22 the US expressed is concern over Russian military support for the rebels in Libya. The United States accused Russian mercenaries Wagner of fighting alongside Khalifa Haftar's forces to overthrow the internationally recognized government. Haftar's men are called the Libyan National ...

US sanctions on Russian pipeline alarm Germany

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2019

On December 20 the US Congress approved further sanctions on Russia. Trump signed the bill. The latest round of sanctions is aimed at the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline. The US 11 billion pipeline is from Russia to Germany passing through Denmark's territorial water. The Germans say the sanctions meddles...