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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Bolsonaro’s partial victory in the “war of narratives”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2020

Amid rumors about the presence of allegedly “devastating content” against President Jair Bolsonaro in the video of the ministerial cabinet meeting on April 22, the three ministers, General Augusto Heleno (Institutional Security Office), General Luiz Eduardo Ramos (Government Secretariat) and Gene...

Rescuing the financial system
INDIA · Report · 13 May 2020 · 1 response

On May 12, the Prime Minister made a speech in which he talked about Rs.20 trillion that will be brought into play (in ways that are as yet unspecified). He struck an optimistic note, suggesting that the worst of the epidemic is behind us, and that we now rebuild. There was a surprising emphasis ...

Perspectives for banking legislation in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2020

The voting agenda for the Senate tomorrow, May 14, includes a bill that limits interest rates on credit cards and overdrafts (PL 1166/2020). For next week, there are plans to include analysis of the proposal that increases the CSLL (Social Contribution on Profits) for financial institutions, insu...

“Anti-Kolomoysky” law approved, IMF’s turn to move
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 May 2020

Parliament approved “Anti-Kolomoysky” law , which prevents return of nationalized Privatbank to its previouse owners. It was a long way to go for Ukrainian authorities. Many concerns about independence of president Zelenskiy. But finally we saw that Zelenskiy is trying to make decisions with his ...

Political tension on the horizon
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2020

The testimonies given today by Ministers Augusto Heleno (Institutional Security Office), Braga Netto (Civil House) and Luiz Eduardo Ramos (Government Secretariat) may be decisive in the inquiry opened at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to investigate the accusations made by former Minister Sergio...

CBR policy: more rate cuts needed to offset quantitative tightening
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2020

There is no doubt that the impact of the lockdown on the Russian economy in April was strong, and the decision to gradually lift the imposed restrictions is quite understandable – even despite the rather high numbers of infections in Russia. In this regard it is worth reiterating that despite the...

China virus check – week ending May 12
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) A strong upturn in coal use in the power industry. 2) Strong traffic congestion but expressway traffic down due to comparisons with the week-earlier holiday. 3) Underground metro rail traffic moving up relatively stea...

Russia easing lockdown despite surging cases
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2020

On May 11 Putin said the lockdown would be eased for most people. The president claimed that the lockdown had allowed the health service to get more equipment. It begs the question why Russia was sending the doctors and aid to other countries when Russia has shortages. In Moscow the lockdown has ...

First hearing in the investigation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2020

Today began the first testimonies of the investigation into the alleged attempt by President Bolsonaro to politically interfere in the Federal Police (PF), following accusations from former Cabinet Minister Sergio Moro. The hearing of Mauricio Valeixo, the previous director of the PF,​ in Curitib...

Economics: No game plan and scant oil money
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2020 · 1 response

The Mexican economy’s fragility in the face of the global economic crisis has highlighted several structural deficiencies, including the country’s longstanding petrolization of foreign accounts and public finance dating back to the early eighties. Current account dependence on oil was corrected a...

The temptation to spend and Paulo Guedes’s exposure
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2020

President Bolsonaro may sign into law the bill that provides aid to states and municipalities. Salary increases for civil servants will be vetoed. Ministers Braga Netto (Chief of Staff), Augusto Heleno (Institutional Security) and Luiz Eduardo Ramos (Government Secretariat) will testify to Federa...

Hyperinflation will persist despite price controls
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2020

Consumer prices surged in April owing to a spike in black-market dollar prices, the arrival of Covid-19, the government response to Covid-19, and gasoline shortages. Month-on-month inflation accelerated to 50 percent in April from 23 percent in March. Consumer prices have risen by 263 percent so ...

Politics: Government inaction as violence spirals
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2020

Intentional homicides continue to reach record highs in Mexico as major drug operations, primarily the Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and Sinaloa cartels, step up war to control major trafficking routes into the United States. The former of these organizations has opened up another front as its ...

​SAUDI: Tripling the VAT is a bold move that will facilitate reforms in other states
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 May 2020 · 1 response

Saudi Arabia has announced new fiscal consolidation totalling $27bn (4% of GDP), including spending cuts, ending a key benefit for public sector employees and tripling the VAT to 15%. These will help significantly with fiscal consolidation, particularly in 2021, but at the cost of further contrac...

Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate and Fiscal and Political Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2020

The cut of 75 basis points at the last COPOM meeting took the SELIC rate to 3%, and the communiqué indicated that another cut of up to 75 basis points at most is in store at the next meeting. The disinflationary pressure caused by the magnitude of the current recession, which in light of the beha...

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