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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

True improvement vs. lockdown noise?
TURKEY · Report · 04 May 2020

Consumer prices rose by 0.85%, m/m, somewhat higher than the market consensus, with the 12-month CPI inflation easing to 10.9% from 11.9% in March. Domestic-PPI inflation registered 1.3%, m/m, increase, leading to a decline in the 12-month rate to 6.7%, from 8.5% in the previous month. The wor...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 May 2020

The month of April 2020 will be remembered as one of the most unique ever experienced by the country. Circumstances were created assuring the concomitant aggravation of three major crises: the pandemic, the political crisis and the economic crisis. The number of deaths caused by the Covid-19 viru...

The growth in employment will be crucial for recovery
ISRAEL · Report · 04 May 2020

Highlights: Although official unemployment rose only slightly in March to 3.4%, this does not represent the actual state of the labor market. * Those on forced non-pay vacation are not considered unemployed. * If this segment is included, it is estimated that 817k were out of wor...

Russian drug prices soaring
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2020

On April 29 Russian newspaper Vedomosti reported that prices for medicines are soaring. On certain routes transport costs are up sixfold due to coronavirus. This would make some medicines loss makers for manufacturers. Supply chains have been disrupted. Some Russian pharmaceutical manufacturers a...

The growth in employment will be crucial for recovery
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 May 2020

Highlights of our upcoming weekly review:Although official unemployment rose only slightly in March to 3.4%, this does not represent the actual state of the labour market.Those on forced non-pay vacation are not considered unemployed.If this segment is included, it is estimated that 817k were out...

Corona damage becoming visible
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2020

In as much as official figures may be misleading, Turkey is making good progress on eradicating COVID-19, while the government has switched to a cautious stance vis-à-vis re-opening the economy. Administration members now caution the public that Turkey will remain on emergency footing for some ...

Chair of Kazakhstan Senate suddenly fired
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 May 2020

On May 2 the President of Kazakhstan fired the Chair of the Senate. President Tokayev thanked Dariga Nazarbayeva for her work and offered no explanation for the unheralded announcement. Chair of the Senate is the successor to the president if he dies in office or is incapacitated. Dariga Nazarbay...

S&P has taken back the positive outlook from its BBB sovereign rating for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 May 2020

Well, it did not take a very long time. S&P announced the positive outlook on February 14 this year, signalling that it would soon consider an upgrade for the Hungarian sovereign's BBB rating. But then came Covid-19, and in an extraordinary statement released on April 28, the outlook was announce...

Disobedience probe: alarming ring of big reshuffle
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 May 2020

Yesterday we witnessed events, which might be the first signal of big shift in Ukrainian politics. Mayor of Cherkasy, a town in central Ukraine with near 280 thnd inhabitants, eased quarantine restrictions from May 1st ahead of any orders from Kyiv. President Zelenskiy in his regular video-addres...

Procter and Gamble gaining in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 May 2020

30-50% of Russian economic output has been closed down to coronavirus. Procter and Gamble (P&G) is allowed to continue as normal. It produces coronavirus necessaries. These include Fairy and Tide.P & G has posted some of its best ever results for Q1. Sales are up. People have stocked up. 60% of P...

GULF WEEKLY: Coronavirus slows, Saudi/Qatar fiscal data, Oman/Dubai GRE downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 May 2020 · 1 response

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rose by about $5 over the week, and the new OPEC+ quotas came into effect today. * Coronavirus growth rates finally began to slo...

Severe Q2 economic contraction expected
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 01 May 2020

The number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise. As of last week, more than 6,500 people had been confirmed positive, and nearly 300 had died. The daily number of new infections has declined, which could mean social distancing is working. But it’s early to draw conclusions. The number of daily tes...

China’s “special” stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 May 2020

China relies less on monetary stimulus through the banks and more on fiscal expansion through targeted investments. Even when it supplies credit to the banks through a monetary expansion, as it is doing currently through various programs, these come with fiscal restrictions – orders from the regu...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar: The depth of recession and the ramp of recovery​
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 May 2020

Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discuss Colombia’s macro and fiscal outlook in response to the coronavirus crisis.​

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series featuring Lucas de Aragao: The consequences of Sergio Moro's resignation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 May 2020

In this call, Lucas de Aragao discussed the political environment in the aftermath of Sergio Moro's resignation, including President Bolsonaro's positioning and support, and the prospects for Brazil's reform agenda.

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