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Russia war games
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2020

On September 21 military exercises began in southern Russia. The exercises are called Caucasus 2020. China is participating along with Belarus, Iran, Myanmar and Kazakhstan. India had been due to take part but withdrew citing coronavirus. It is suspected that the ulterior reason was India's borde...

Implausible but most welcome: Moody's improved its Baa3 outlook from Stable to Positive yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2020

What is so surprising about this announcement is not so much the fact that Moody's has finally decided to move Hungary upward on its scale, towards the BBB/Stable ratings maintained both by Fitch Ratings and S&P. It is much more the timing of the decision, the fact that Moody's made this step exa...

More resources for Pronampe
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2020

The government will inject more resources into the National Support Program for Micro and Small Enterprises (Pronampe). The announcement was made by Senators Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL) and Kátia Abreu (PP-TO) after a meeting with the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes. The announcement made ...

Yandex shares soar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2020

On September 23 Yandex shares leapt 13% to their highest level after Yandex signed a deal with Tinkoff for USD 5.5 billion. The previous day they had jumped 11%. The shares have since fallen back considerably but they are still substantially above where they were on September 22. Yandex is likely...

FinCEN leak lifts the lid on Ukrainian corruption
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2020

The files showed that Barclays Bank transferred money for Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov. This was despite filing Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) about it. Akhmetov is now the main bankroller of the Servant of the People - the party of Zelensky. Over USD 2 billion was transacted for for ...

​GULF WEEKLY: Qatar affirmed, Kuwait downgraded, Oman may issue, Libya partly restarts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Sep 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Libya reopened some oil fields and export terminals, but less than a third of its capacity. * The US asserted UN sanctions had snapped back on Iran, while the UN Sec Gen s...

Mexico webinar featuring Mauricio Gonzalez and Guillermo Valdes – Budget 2021 and the macro and political outlook for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2020

Mauricio Gonzalez and Guillermo Valdes discuss the economic prospects for Mexico in light of the 2021 Budget, as well as the public’s appraisal of the recent performance of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s government.

Moscow reintroduces coronavirus restrictions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2020

On September 25 Moscow City asked people to work from home where possible from September 28. People over 65 are asked to stay inside as much as possible. The city is responding to 1,000 + cases of coronavirus being confirmed on September 24. This is the worst since June. The number of people admi...

Russia's coronavirus vaccine licensed in 23 countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2020

On September 24 Russia's sovereign wealth fund said that Avifair will be on the market in 23 countries. It is already sold in 6, and a further 17 countries have licensed it. Avifavir is made by ChemRar. It is on sale in Ukraine, Turkmenistan, Bolivia, Kazakhstan and other countries. It is not ava...

Sberbank announces new services
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2020

On September 24 the Russian state-owned bank announced that there will be new services such as those Apple and Amazon offer. The corporate brand will no longer use the word "bank". It is now "Sber". Sber is trying to become part of tech.The Chief Executive German Gref made the announcement. There...

Encouraging, but still playing catch-up
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2020

A step in the right direction, but still playing catch up with reality. This, in a nutshell, sums up our reaction to today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to raise the policy rate (weekly repo) by 200 bps, from 8.25% to 10.25% (simple), which means commensurate increases in both O/N a...

The MNB has just raised the sterilisation rate to 0.75%, to preempt increasing inflationary pressures
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2020

The MNB has called its usual 1-week deposit tender with a fix 0.75% interest rate today, deviating from the unchanged 0.6% base rate and from its practice used so far, according to which the 1-week rate, which is the effective sterilisation rate, was always the same as the base rate. Later, the M...

Recovery reaches pre-pandemic level
CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2020

Industrial output was up 5.6% y/y, up 0.8 pps from July, reaching the average growth rate of 2019. We expect growth might slightly exceed the pre-pandemic level for the rest of the year. Investment fell -0.3% y/y January-August, up 1.3 pps from previous months. The driving force is switching from...

​Is the EU sanctions threat over?
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2020

EU’s extraordinary leaders’ summit scheduled for this weekend was postponed for a week on account of Council President Charles Michel being in COVID-19 quarantine, which gives Turkey, EU and the anti-Turkey hardliners to work out a compromise in the interim. Despite press reports to the contrary,...

Government bets on exemption and reforms
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2020

After a meeting with President Jair Bolsonaro and members of the government’s political and economic wings, the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, said that the country must extend companies’ payroll tax exemption. And, for that reason, it will need to look for “alternative taxes”. Paulo G...

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