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Country Insights

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Ibope Poll: Dilma Widens Lead, But Majority Wants Change
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 19 Nov 2013
Ibope released a new poll on the 2014 presidential race, conducted from November 7-11. Four possible scenarios were polled. In every scenario, Dilma Rousseff (PT) has a strong lead over her possible adversaries. In the first scenario, presented in Table 1, President Dilma widened her lead over he...

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A Very Small Step in the Right Direction
TURKEY - In Brief 19 Nov 2013
Today, the CBT/MPC kept all policy rates (weekly repo and O/N corridor) unchanged as expected, but said the following: "In order to contain the impact of these developments on the pricing behavior, the Committee decided to strengthen the cautious stance and reduce the volatility of short term mon...

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Political Cycles: 2010 and 2014
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Nov 2013
Election years are usually accompanied by political cycles: governments abandon fiscal and monetary austerity in search of ways to stimulate aggregate demand and reduce unemployment. The overall aim is to boost the popularity of the candidate supported by the party in power. This happened in Braz...

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Untimely Facelift
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 18 Nov 2013
Executive SummaryTrade data revisions and the South African Reserve Bank’s new asset allocation strategy are the latest facelift features of the South African economic landscape. On close inspection, it seems the timing of these measures is reactive. Policymaking has shifted into firefighting gea...

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Political Insights: Week of November 18
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Nov 2013
President Dilma Rousseff begins the week trying to impede the voting on bills with fiscal impact.On Monday, she meets with senators and, on Tuesday, with her Political Council. In the House, we highlight the vote on the Internet Framework Law. Congress will try to vote on the LDO and the bill tha...

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Presidential Election: We Have a Second Round
CHILE - In Brief 17 Nov 2013
Michelle Bachelet obtained a solid 47% of the votes this Sunday in the Presidential election. But this result is not enough to be elected president. She needed 50% (plus one) of the votes. In the second round, Bachelet will face Evelyn Matthei who obtained 25% of the preferences. Marco Enriquez c...

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Weekly Tracker: November 17-23
TURKEY - Report 17 Nov 2013
Executive Summary Rojava Kurds declared “autonomy”, an act that will change the progress of the Syrian war and Turkey’s own Peace Process. As the line of first defense, PM Erdogan invited Iraqi Kurdish leader Mr. Barzani to Diyarbakir to sponsor his party and the Peace Process. There are rumors t...

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Little Reason to Cheer
VENEZUELA - Forecast 15 Nov 2013
Executive SummaryWe extend our forecast horizon to 2015 and see little reason to cheer. The shift toward deeper state intervention that began last October endures. Monetary, exchange rate, fiscal, and price control policy frameworks are kept in place, worsening distortions and sharpening imbalanc...

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A Court’s Ruling Divides The Country
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Forecast 15 Nov 2013
Executive SummaryPreliminary figures set GDP growth for January-September 2013 at 2.9%, most of which is due to the growth registered in Q3, estimated at 5.5%. Leading activities during the period were mining, finance, hotels, bars and restaurants, health services, communications, education, othe...

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Trying Times
PHILIPPINES - Forecast 14 Nov 2013
Executive SummaryThese are trying times for President Benigno Simeon Aquino III. Since late July, the nation’s leader has had to face down an armed conflict in the south, deal with public anger over the theft of public funds and the pork barrel system, counter questions about the legality of his ...

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Marching Steadily Ahead
CHINA - Report 13 Nov 2013
Executive Summary Though news that the economy grew 7.7% this year through Q3 was enthusiastically welcomed by China’s policy community, many are concerned about what Q4 will bring. The most powerful contributor to Q3 growth was the accelerated rise in industrial output, up 9.6% for the fir...

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Retail Sales: Unequal Performance Among Sectors
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Nov 2013
In September, while real retail sales in the restricted sense (without cars and construction materials) grew 0.5%, sales in the augmented sense fell 0.7% (Graph 1). With this, the result for the third quarter was highly discrepant between these two categories: in the restricted sense sales growth...

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Budgetary Sleight of Hand
MEXICO - Report 12 Nov 2013
Executive Summary The most significant economic news out of Mexico last week was the decision by the country’s central bank to adjust its economic growth projections for this year and next. Banco de México (Banxico) said that economic activity indicators for the first half of the year had proven ...

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Stuck on Political Reform
MEXICO - Report 12 Nov 2013
Executive Summary With just over a month to go before the current session concludes, Congress has little to show for its efforts other than progress on budget and tax policy. And although lawmakers are well behind schedule in addressing crucial structural reform issues that the major parties had ...

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Political Insights: Week of November 12
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 12 Nov 2013
The Friday, November 15, holiday means reduced activities in Congress. In the House, we highlight the vote on the Internet Framework Law. In the Senate, the first round vote on the compulsory budget may be concluded. The Federal Supreme Court (STF) analyzes the Mensalão case on Wednesday and Thur...