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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Voters more critical, AMLO approval drops
MEXICO · Report · 21 Sep 2020

The latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey of opinion among the country’s registered voters recorded a continuing shift toward increasingly negative perceptions of the current state of the country and the extent to which the economic crisis is upending people’s lives six months into the pandemic. Since ...

The government counts on economic conditions potentially remaining bad in 2021
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Sep 2020

The are two new pieces of evidence for this. One is the weekend decision to extend the existing mandatory moratorium on the service of bank debt generated before March 2020. As PM Orbán announced on Saturday, the moratorium, which affects 1.6 million individuals and 60k enterprises in the context...

The debate on Renda Brasil and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2020

Senator Márcio Bittar (MDB-AC), rapporteur of the budget, may present a proposal creating a social program to replace the emergency aid payments. On Saturday, September 26, electoral advertising begins ahead of the November municipal elections. This week's Talking Points * Evaluation of po...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2020

* Russia’s economic recovery has continued slowly but there are energy price worries. * Nord Stream 2 continues, with some calls for Germany to cancel it. * In Belarus the president is holding on and has secured Russian support. * In Ukraine, the ceasefire is at risk.

Belarus will repay USD 330 million to Gazprom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2020

On September 20 Russian Finance Minister Siluanov announced that Belarus will use some of the latest 1.5 billion to repay a debt to Russian state gas company Gazprom. USD 1 billion will be lent to Belarus by the end of December 2020. A further USD 500 million will be lent early in 2021. Belarussi...

Deflation and renewed closure likely to support further loosening
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Sep 2020

Inflation in August surprised on the downside, with core inflation moving deeper into negative territory (-0.5% y/y). Despite recent indicators of growth acceleration, the renewed closure will clearly reverse this trend. The combination of slowing growth and pronounced deflation support a more ac...

Economics: The short budget leash of 2021
MEXICO · Report · 21 Sep 2020

This week we are following up on our analysis of the López Obrador Administration’s Economic Package for 2021, which is comprised of the General Economic Policy Criteria (GEPC), the Budget Proposal and the Federal Revenue Law Initiative. Unsurprisingly, this administration has handed us for ...

Deflation and renewed closure likely to support further loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Sep 2020

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 21.9.20 Inflation surprises on the downside Inflation remained stable m/m in August below market expectations of 0.2% m/m. Inflation in August declined to -0.8% y/y (from -0.6% in July). Core inflation move lower to -0.5% y/y (from -0.4% in July). Eig...

A date with fate
TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2020

Going deeply against the grain, we call only for minor sanctions from the EU at the upcoming Leaders’ Summit on September 26th, maintaining our view that short of a Biden Presidency, foreign policy shocks are very likely to be too mild, compared to the domestic political-cum-economic ones. Yet, w...

Russia keeps interest rate steady
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Sep 2020

On September 18 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) decided not to cut the interest rate. There have been several successive cuts over the past two years. Inflation increased surprisingly on Q3 2020 and the RUB fell. These moves may have promoted the September 18 decision. The Governor of the CBR sa...

Belarus strengthens borders
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Sep 2020

On September 17 Lukashenka announced that borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia would be closed because of interference with Belarus' affairs. In fact this has not happened. However, the border has been strengthened. It is rumored that Lukashenka's favorite son Nikolai, 16, has been sent to s...

Uzbek companies transferred
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2020

On September 18 Ozodlik published an article saying that cabinet sources revealed that six major industrial and energy companies have been transferred to the trust of SFI Management Group. SFI Management Group is owned by Alisher Usmanov who is a Russian-Uzbek oligarch.Usmanov said that the compa...

Unemployment lines at the INSS are challenging for the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Sep 2020

The increase in unemployment lines and the accumulation of lawsuits at the National Institute of Social Security (INSS), a consequence of specialty doctors who refuse to return to in-person work, are putting pressure on the government in the social arena. Today, the Institute of Brazilian Geograp...

The Russian economy in August: slow recovery continues
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2020

Rosstat reported that in August, the economic recovery continued across the board, albeit slowly. Most of the indicators looked better y-o-y than in July, especially taking into account that this year August had fewer working days than a year ago. Some previous data have been revised up slightly,...

Russia approves coronavirus drugs for sale
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2020

Two Russian manufactured coronavirus drugs have been licensed for sale in drug stores on September 17. Both of them are version of favirpirvir which was originally an anti-flu medicine invented in Japan. The drugs are in pill form. Trials prove that recovery times are speedy. India and China have...

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