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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Can India use macro policy in responding to the pandemic?
INDIA · In Brief · 11 Mar 2020

In many countries, macro policy is responding to the pandemic. In some ways, the situation is reminiscent of the 2008 crisis. It is important to point out one key difference. Most countries started out with a strong fiscal situation, and relatively high policy rates, in 2007/2008. This gave room ...

Presidential candidates picked women as their ticket companions
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Mar 2020

Last night, all presidential candidates completed their ballots for the elections in May and in the three largest parties all vice-presidential nominees are women. About two weeks ago, Gonzalo Castillo, candidate of the PLD, elected the current vice president Margarita Cedeño. The presence of Ced...

PM Orbán, minister Varga pessimistic about Covid-19 impact, see need for new fiscal stimulus
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Mar 2020

Over the past two days, PM Orbán and finance minister Varga made pessimistic statements about the possible impact of the coronavirus disease on the Euro Area and Hungary. Mr. Orbán said the government budgets for 2020-2021 will have to be reworked (for 2021, this can obviously mean amendments to ...

Russian Central Bank supporting RUB
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Mar 2020

On March 10 the Russian Central Bank (CBR) began selling foreign currency in a bid to raise the value of the RUB. RUB slumped to a four year low against the USD on March 9. The move had an immediate effect raising the RUB 4%.Russia has a fiscal rule. Oil revenue above USD 42.4 are used to buy for...

The end game for Yes Bank
INDIA · Report · 10 Mar 2020

It was known for a while that Yes Bank had difficulties. There is no institutional arrangement for the resolution of financial firms in India. Each resolution is cobbled together, on the fly, by the Ministry of Finance with support from various financial agencies. However, in the past, when th...

Putin keeps open option to run in 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2020

On March 10 Russian President Vladimir Putin said he supported a constitutional amendment that would allow his presidential terms already served to be zeroed. This would thus allow him to run in 2024 and serve again as president. The amendment is contingent on approval from the Constitutional Cou...

Inflation lower in February but still remains above expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2020

CPI-inflation for February came out at 4.4% yoy this morning. The not negligible good news is that it indeed fell from 4.7% yoy in January, which was a big negative surprise then. But the bad news is that it did not shrink at the rate expected by the MNB (to 4.2% yoy) or the analyst consensus (4....

Disinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Mar 2020

We revise down our estimate for February 2020 inflation to 21 percent from 31 percent, meaning we now estimate disinflation. We also revise down our estimate for January inflation, to 67 percent from 71 percent. These numbers compound to an accumulated inflation rate for the first two months of t...

Coronavirus threatens to depress growth
PERU · Report · 09 Mar 2020

Nine parties will be represented in Congress for the next 16 months, led by a new informal alliance of Acción Popular, Alianza para el Progreso, Somos Perú and Podemos Perú, which together hold 69 of the 130 seats. This majority will allow them to name the president and vice presidents of Congres...

Economics: Pemex ‒ even worse than 2018
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2020 · 1 response

This week we are revisiting a topic we touched on three weeks ago in offering a preliminary assessment of Petróleos Mexicanos’ latest quarterly and full-year results, which for 2019 revealed a further deterioration of the company’s operational and financial health. The report showed some areas of...

Impact of the oil price rout on Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 09 Mar 2020

The collapse of oil prices significantly worsens Venezuela’s already dire conditions. Oil output is falling, albeit at a slower pace than a year ago, when two nationwide blackouts compounded the effect of US sanctions. Current changes in Pdvsa’s organizational structure and staffing are unlikely ...

Tension between the branches and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2020

Minister Paulo Guedes is expected to send a Tax Reform proposal to Congress. On Wednesday, March 11, he will take part in a public hearing in the Joint Committee on Tax Reform. Revised GDP projections for 2020 will be released. Congress analyzes bills from the Executive on the Compulsory Budget. ...

2020 – Another Year of Weak Growth and Low Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 09 Mar 2020

The Coronavirus outbreak is a supply shock, against which central banks have few tools. If the world were facing a systemic banking crisis, like in 2008-09, there would be a risk of a global recession, but in the current situation there is simply a risk of greater deceleration of growth. It isn’t...

GDP and Coronavirus – Another Factor to Frustrate Growth in 2020
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Mar 2020

On the heels of the GDP growth of only 1.1% in 2019, now comes concern over the effects of Coronavirus epidemics in various countries. This is predominantly a supply shock on a worldwide scale, which is more heavily affecting the industry of countries that are integrated in global supply chains. ...

Politics: The potential cost of Covid-19 inaction
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2020

It has been just over a week since the first confirmed case in Mexico of Covid-19 was reported, followed in short order by five more, and the detection of 26 people suspected of carrying the virus. No one has died of the disease to date, and all confirmed cases were contracted while outside the c...

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