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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

EU to lend EUR 1.2 billion to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

On April 22 the EU announced that it would give a EUR 1.2 billion soft loan to Ukraine to deal coronavirus. This is because Ukraine is an EU enlargement country i.e., it has the long-term goal of joining the EU. The first installment is said to be imminent. The second installment will depend on U...

The consequences of Moro’s resignation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The exit of the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Sergio Moro, from the Bolsonaro administration on the heels of the dismissal of the general-director of the Federal Police, Maurício Valeixo, has the potential to provoke profound changes. It is important to note that Moro’s exit, as the mo...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil plummets, Trump-Iran tensions return, Bahrain cuts spending
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * The latest crash in oil prices, which saw Brent touch $16, weighed on Gulf markets. * Trump and Iran exchanged threats about destroy...

Hungary sold EUR 2bn of 6 and 12-year bonds yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

Well, it did not take too much time for the government to adjust its 2020 financing plan to the new situation and to start the implementation of the amended financing plan right away.The amended government budget, which raised the deficit target for this year from 1% to 2.7% of GDP, has identifie...

President Duterte extends ECQ in key regions
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

President Rodrigo Duterte today announced the extension until May 15 of Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) in key parts of Luzon island deemed “high-risk”, including the three top contributors to GDP, Metro Manila (36%), Calabarzon (17%) and Central Luzon (9.8%). He also decided to transition se...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: Russia's response to the crisis: a mix of easing and tightening
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Apr 2020

In the webinar, Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin provided insight into Russia's ability to weather the dual impact of the coronavirus lockdown and the oil crisis on its economy and external accounts

Last french fries factory in Russia shut temporarily
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

On April 24 the only French fries factory in Russia closed for the time being. Belaya Dacha Factory opened in 2018 in Lipestk. 100 000 tons of French fries were produced there in 2019. Fast food joints no longer had to import fries. Fast food restaurants have stopped operating.Belaya Dacha has 20...

Dispute over the direction of the economy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2020

The announcement of the Pró-Brasil program – public investment measures to increase job creation and economic growth with a focus on infrastructure – evinced a dispute in the Jair Bolsonaro government over the direction of the economy in the post-pandemic period. Practically at the same time that...

The NBU slashes prime rate down to 8%, anticipates better CAD amid COVID-19 crisis
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2020

The NBU Board slashed prime rate by 200 basis points down to 8% today. Low inflation (+2.3% y/y in March), no dramatic impact of COVID-19 crisis on external accounts so far, stabilized hryvnia and falling prices for hydrocarbons are behind this decision. That strong a cut was not expected, to be ...

Government intensifies political articulation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2020

Negotiations are underway with the aim of easing relations between the Planalto Palace and the National Congress. Alongside the military wing’s actions to mend the relationship between Jair Bolsonaro and Rodrigo Maia, the president of the Republic will also meet with the Mayor of Salvador, ACM Ne...

Mikheil Saakashvili is back
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2020

Mikheil Saakashvili will be appointed Vice-Prime Minister coordinating reforms, according to his Facebook page. Recall Saakashvili entered Ukrainian politics after the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. Ex-president Petro Poroshenko named him ‘an old friend’ and in 2015 appointed Saakashvili governor...

GCC fiscal deficit could reach $250bn in 2020 with a 16% drop in non-oil output
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 22 Apr 2020 · 1 response

Recent forecasts of the impact of COVID-19 have looked optimistic. We have built a model to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on the GCC states in different scenarios. In our baseline, we assume a 23% drop in non-oil output for 6 months and an oil price of $30 on average in 2020-21. In this scenari...

Russia: Pandemic update
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020

Economy taking a hitRosstat reported that industrial output was up by a mere 0.3% y-o-y in March, which brought the 1Q20 y-o-y growth figure to just 1.5%. Seasonally adjusted March figure was 1.3% down m-o-m. Mining y-o-y was flat in 1Q20 and down by 1.3% in March, while manufacturing growth in M...

South Africa’s bold R500 billion Covid-19 relief package announced on Day 25 of the nationwide lockdown
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Apr 2020

In a previous report we highlighted the fact that, although South African government coffers are in a precarious state, the government still had to find ways to mobilize funds for tackling the Covid-19 pandemic’s catastrophic health, social and economic impact. The government has found a way to d...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2020

▪ Coronavirus has hit all countries in the region. The oil exporting ones are suffering most heavily, with several percentage points likely to be wiped off GDP. ▪ Belarus is carrying on as though Covid-19 is no threat despite admitting to some cases. ▪ The end of the OPEC+ oil deal caused econo...

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