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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Everyone is a winner, but some more so than others
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2019

At 07:00 am Istanbul time, High Election Council (HEC) kept mum about who won Istanbul, as both candidates claimed victory by the tiniest of margins.Social media is aflame with rumors of skirmishes within HEC, with at least one of the judges injured.Yet, I shall not play the forensics poll analys...

Welcome to the jungle
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

It is 2:00 Monday, Istanbul time, or 2 hours after Mr. Yildirimdeclared victory in Istanbul, even though according to the unofficial tally of Anatolian Agencyroughly 110K of votes had remained to be counted, with Yildirim only ahead by 4,441. Then, CHP candidate Imamoglu and chairman Kilicdaroglu...

​Istanbul at razor’s edge, Erdogan downcast
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

At 22:48 Turkey time, with 96% of the votes counted, Yildirim’s lead in Istanbul shrank to 60K votes, as the few opposition TV channels began to complain about irregularities.In some of the less pro-AKP channels, impartial experts still predict Yildirim winning by 30K votes or so, and being so fa...

No Surprises: Zelenskiy & Poroshenko Pass to Second Round
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

National exit polls replicated survey results we’ve been observing over the last few months. The only surprise was for Ihor Smeshko, ex-Head of Security Bureau of Ukraine who managed to collect substantial support starting from zero just few months ago. Yulia Tymoshenko most likely will not recog...

​First Update: No earthquake, just tremors
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

At 21:30 Turkish time the outcome of the municipal elections is shaping up gradually, though at least in 7 provinces it is too close to call the results. The province-based tally is as follows:AKP is ahead in 39, CHP 20, MHP 10 and HDP 8 provinces.The rebel province of Tunceli could choosea commu...

Ukraine going to the polls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2019

Volodymyr Zelenskiy is the frontrunner on 24.8% according to the Razmukov Center. President Poroshenko is on 22% in the same poll. Yulia Tymoshenko is rated at 14.8%. As Poroshenko controls the election commission it might be who counts the votes and not who gets most votes that counts! One thing...

The year starts slowly…but exports of copper may change the trend. Martinelli´s trial may heat up the headlines
PANAMA · Report · 29 Mar 2019

The economic data for the first month of 2019 suggests a weak start to the year. The recently published Monthly Economic Index for January point in that direction (see Graph 1 below). Surprisingly, the effect of the World Youth Meeting in January, which should have increased internal demand by 0....

The politics of credit allocation in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Mar 2019

Discussions of China’s various stimulus programs focus on the growth of total social financing, bond purchases, swaps and other announced “official” credit policies. However, one important aspect of credit intermediation has been overlooked: geography. This political credit allocation by geograph...

The curious case of CBRT reserves, a recap
TURKEY · Report · 29 Mar 2019 · 9 responses

CBRT reserves have been the markets’ focus since last week because of substantial drops in net reserves that could not be attributed to the familiar factors. As a lot of numbers have been floating around since then, we thought it would be useful to provide some background on where these numbers a...

The South African Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged as consumer inflation remains contained
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Mar 2019

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee concluded its three-day March meeting today with Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago’s announcement that the Reserve Bank would be keeping the benchmark interest rate at 6.75%. This means the prime interest rate will also remain at 10....

Explanatory statement from the MNB: no policy cycle, next revision in late June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2019

MNB vice governor Márton Nagy made an interesting statement at an investment seminar today, providing some explanation, but also a refining, to the view presented by governor Matolcsy right after the Monetary Council meeting on Tuesday, March 26.Mr. Nagy essentially repeated the Governor's words ...

South Africa’s May 2019 general elections polls – let the race begin
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Mar 2019

South Africa’s general elections are fast approaching, and the race is heating up. The election date of May 8, 2019 was announced by President Ramaphosa during the State of the Nation (SONA) address at the beginning of February 2019, but the proclamation was officially signed by the President on ...

Essential CIS Politics: Russia is surprisingly relaxed about the threat of more US sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2019

* Russia is surprisingly relaxed about the threat of more US sanctions. * The Ukrainian presidential election is wide open. * The TAPI pipeline could be a game changer for Turkmenistan.

​Final Words: CHP-IYIP have wind in their sails
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2019 · 1 response

It is time to spell out my final predictions on Sunday’s municipal elections. Before I cut to the chase, a few words on my method and thought process needs to be said, because covering this election campaign was a harrowing experience. Since the 2010 referendum, I used a trimmed mean of poll resu...

Russian shipbuilding stalls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2019

Last year Russia built 89 large and medium sized ships. This includes 46 civilian and 43 military vessels. The cost was USD 2.6 billion. In 2017 the figure was 98 ships for USD 1.6 billion. 70% of the value or the orders comes from the Russian Navy. The increase in the money spent on ships is mai...

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