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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Ready to grow
CHILE · Report · 23 Jun 2017

The Central Bank kept the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) at 2.5% at its June Monetary Policy Meeting. Likewise, the communiqué barely changed from May. The June communique corroborated the minutes of May’s meeting and the latest Inflation Report that 2.5% is a floor for the TPM. Only significant addi...

Pre-Holiday (Contrarian) Musings
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jun 2017

Turkish markets will be closed on Monday-Tuesday, as part of the end-of-Ramadan holiday (Eid Al-Fitr) that starts over the weekend. We thought it’d be useful to recap some of the recent data releases and share a few somewhat contrarian thoughts on where things stand on the economy front. Turki...

Will there be peace?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Jun 2017

It has been one month since President Rodrigo Duterte declared martial law in Mindanao following what he said was an act of rebellion by a group of Muslim extremists that had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (ISIS). Fighting between government forces and the extremists has been intense but...

Bad Economic Benchmarks in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Jun 2017

A fund manager recently told me he relies on three sets of data to monitor the strength of the Chinese economy: 1. Interbank interest rates. 2. The value of the yuan. 3. The rise or decline of China’s foreign exchange holdings. However, I would disagree with the use of these three benchmarks ...

Economics: The Financing Tap is Tightening
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jun 2017

The issuance of credit to the non bank private sector slowed during the first quarter of 2017 relative to the pace of previous years. Both the business and consumer credit segments continue to grow at better than 5%, but that is well below the levels of past years, especially 2016, when growth wa...

Finance Minister Alfredo Thorne will resign.
PERU · In Brief · 21 Jun 2017

Finance Minister Alfredo Thorne will resign after Congress denied him a confidence vote he formally requested. His resignation comes as part of the fallout concerning the government efforts to revive the proposed airport project at Chinchero, Cuzco. The construction and operation PPP project was ...

Politics: Elections and Democracy in Question
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jun 2017

Opposition parties and candidates are mounting legal challenges to the official vote counts in two of the June 4 gubernatorial elections (Coahuila and the State of Mexico), in a pattern that has become all too predictable in Mexico for decades, in which there is often extensive documentation of w...

People’s Bank promotion?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Jun 2017

Special points to highlight in this issue: • It has long been expected that Zhou Xiaochuan will soon retire as governor of the People’s Bank of China. Guo Shuqing and Yi Gang have usually been suggested as his most likely replacement, with Liu Shiyu sometimes mentioned as a possibility. • Anot...

The Current Account Deficit Widens in the First Quarter of 2017
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Jun 2017

Despite the South African trade surplus’ being sustained for the second consecutive quarter in Jan-Mar 2017 (registering R57 billion in first quarter of 2017 and R56 billion in the final quarter of 2016), the deficit of the current account balance widened from R76 billion in the last quarter of 2...

Week of June 19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jun 2017 · 1 response

The interview given by businessman Joesley Batista to Época magazine will continue to reverberate in Brasília. Federal Police may conclude the expert analysis of the tape recording of the conversation between Batista and President Michel Temer. The President will be abroad (Russia and Norway) th...

The Political Crisis and the Worsening of the Economic Scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 19 Jun 2017

From a purely economic standpoint and a strictly short-term scenario, the current crisis is not as severe as many of the previous ones, but in the political realm the story is very different. Governability has eroded, making it virtually impossible to win approval of a reasonable version of the p...

Will Correa Wait Four Years To Return?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Jun 2017 · 1 response

President Lenín Boltaire Moreno is facing, and will continue to face, many challenges. Not all of them come from the outside. It took former president Rafael Correa less than a month to publicly air his disagreements with some of Moreno’s decisions, especially with his naming of a new anti-corr...

Stronger Economy, Weaker Politics
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Jun 2017

The optimism of official and market forecasters regarding this year’s growth prospects has been justified so far by actual data, even though the government’s 4.1% GDP growth forecast still seems to be at the upper end of existing forecasts. But growth is following a pattern different from largely...

The Signs of Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Jun 2017

Last week was filled with positive data on April’s economic activity, suggesting the recovery recorded in the first quarter might extend to the second. Along with the continuing fall of the interest rate, other forces are also acting in the direction of economic recovery, but even though the wors...

No change in policy rate expected
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Jun 2017

How likely is it that the BSP will raise interest rates when the Monetary Board meets on Thursday, June 22? The question has come up following the US Fed’s decision to hike its policy rate by 25bp on Wednesday. The move brought the cumulative increase in the US policy rate since December last yea...

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