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BCV's designation as SDN
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2019

The designation of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) as a Specially Designated National and Blocked Person (SDN) by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on 17 April 2019 focuses on the central bank's foreign reserve management. Licenses issued in conjunction with the designation exclude ...

Editing Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2019

The main item on the agenda in the Lower House is the Pension Reform vote in the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). The government is dealing with the risk of a truckers’ strike. On Monday, the government may announce a set of measures to increase productivity, employment and economic acti...

Developments in financial stress
INDIA · Report · 22 Apr 2019

The defining problem of the Indian economy is the lack of private investment. A stressed financial system is one factor hampering private investment. In this note, we review the stress in a few components of the financial system. About 35% of the non-financial firms' balance sheet is under str...

The magnitude of the fiscal effort needed and the perspectives for success
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2019

​When the Temer administration realized that without controlling expenditures it would be impossible to end the explosive growth of the public debt, it submitted a proposed constitutional amendment to Congress in order to freeze primary spending in real terms. This was a correct choice, given tha...

A rate hike cannot be ruled out in May
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Apr 2019

Recent economic indicators point to fairly robust growth in Q1 2019, with exports rebounding, private consumption fairly steady and demand for new housing up. The last rate decision was a 4-1 vote, with all members noting the acceleration of the inflation environment. A rate hike in the next rat...

Exit Polls: Zelenskiy Wins with 73.2% Support
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Apr 2019

Volodymyr Zelenskiy – 73.2% Petro Poroshenko – 25.3% The final result might differ a bit but the winner of the race is obvious. Variety of versions why Poroshenko got that dramatic defeat. My personal view, Ukrainians did not forgive his greediness and permissiveness for cronies. That’s why all a...

Cliffhanger weeks
TURKEY · Report · 21 Apr 2019 · 1 response

CHP’s Ekrem Imamoglu is sitting on the mayor’s throne, but not resting easy or on his laurels -- yet. Appeals by AKP-MHP should be ruled upon by the High Election Council by the end of the next week. AKP-MHP’s reasons for repeal are not convincing, but it will be the President who shall say the f...

Import substitution runs into difficulties
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2019

Putin's economic aide Andrei Belousov said that national projects are to use Russian equipment insofar as possible. These projects were announced in May 2018. Belousov ordered the Ministry of Trade and Industry to draw up a list of Russian equipment for these projects and to propose legislative a...

Last year’s deep pessimism seems to have abated
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Apr 2019 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * While China’s first quarter GDP growth came in above expectations, at 6.4 percent year on year, this does not represent the recovery in the underlying economy that many analysts are claiming, not because the growth numbers are fake but simply bec...

China’s private stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Apr 2019

China has a significant economic “hangover” from the ten-year-old fiscal stimulus in 2009. That stimulus relied primarily on bank loans as a quick injection of capital to rejuvenate economic growth. Since then, policy has shifted through several phases and a variety of financial intermediaries an...

Ukrainian presidential debate will probably not save Poroshenko
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Apr 2019

The two Ukrainian presidential candidates are due to debate at 19:00 local time today. President Poroshenko is hoping he can expose his challenger Zelenskiy as a leightweight. Even if it goes well for Poroshenko it is probably too late as polling day is April 21. One poll showed 72% of people wil...

Healthy profits for Russian hydrocarbons but no coherent strategy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Apr 2019

OPEC + is considering how to handle the market supply balance. Oil prices are reaching USD 70 a barrel. This is good news for Rosneft and other Russian oil companies. Russia has only reduced production by half as much as OPEC asked. OPEC members are considering raising production. Too abrupt a pr...

GDP growth between 1% and 1.5% in 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Apr 2019

Analyzing the latest data, along with the recent performance of activity and the perspectives for the coming quarters, we have revised our growth projection for 2019 downward. The interval of our new projection is between 1% and 1.5%, with bias towards the lower limit​. At the end of 2018 ther...

Postponement of the Pension Reform in the CCJ
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2019

The postponement of the Pension Reform vote for the next week reduces the chance of the Lower House concluding the vote before the recess (July 18). According to a timetable drawn up by Arko Advice, if all the minimum procedural deadlines were met, and without any hitch in the political articu...

'Tightening' has made monetary conditions looser
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Apr 2019 · 1 response

On March 26, the MNB carried out a small policy tightening, for the first time since December 2011. However, what was done fell short of the market’s expectations, and so it led to a moderately weaker forint and, consequently, to somewhat looser monetary conditions. This was because the MNB combi...

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