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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The GDP Gap and the Behavior of Potential GDP
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2017

Why has inflation been falling? The explanation rests in the combination the power of monetary policy, whose effects can be belated, but will not fail to occur, and the large and persistent negative output gap. Not only is the unemployment rate now below the NAIRU (the rate that does not accelera...

The Surplus Budget Is Back in Early 2017
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Mar 2017

Following a massive spending campaign in December, the central government’s cash budget turned back into a seasonally unjustified, significant surplus in the first two months of 2017. The monthly surplus of February was especially notable, as it had no precedent in the previous fifteen years at l...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 19 Mar 2017

There was dearth of new branded polls last week, which is rarity for Turkey. Several pollsters commented that because of the high ratio of undecideds they have chosen not to publish results.Less reliable evidence confirms our finding that the race is a dead heat. We suspect AKP will find new gimm...

The IMF shifts Executive Board meeting on Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Mar 2017

Interesting turn of events. Just one day before the IMF Executive Board meeting on Ukraine, scheduled previously on March 20th, the meeting was cancelled. Finance Ministry immediately published explanation claiming that the IMF requested estimates of macro-economic consequences of the official ba...

Politics: PRI Electoral Dilemmas
MEXICO · Report · 16 Mar 2017

The PRI’s recent celebration of its 88th anniversary embodied all the organization’s existential woes as it heads into a crucial showdown in the State of Mexico and prepares for the 2018 presidential elections. One of the most uninspired, disorganized and poorly attended on record, the event fail...

Economics: Mixed Data on Consumption
MEXICO · Report · 16 Mar 2017

Private consumption grew at a real 12 month rate of 3.3% during 2016, the strongest percentage increase since 2012 and an extension of a growth trend dating back to 2015. The report also reaffirmed this demand component’s role as the Mexican economy’s main growth driver throughout 2016. But th...

Dominguez’s tax reform?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Mar 2017

When President Duterte was asked in Tuesday’s press briefing whether he supported the tax reform bill, his answer was an unequivocal “Yes.” When pressed further about whether he also supported the increases in excise taxes on oil and automobiles embedded in the Department of Finance’s (DoF) packa...

More “Temporary” Tightening, As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 16 Mar 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate by 75 bps today, to 11.75%, while keeping all other short term rates intact (see chart). The move, which is a compromise of sorts -- because it raises rates temporarily through liquidity operations without altering the fram...

Official Ban on Cargo Traffic with Donbas
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Mar 2017

Forceful dismantling of one of the block-posts, which prevented coal supplies from Donbas, triggered quite dangerous developments. Few parliamentary parties Samopomitch (led by Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyy) and UKROP (funded by oligarch Igor Kolomoyskiy) made very harsh public statements and star...

Watch out on March 28: an advance warning on monetary policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Mar 2017

Two weeks ahead of the next regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council on March 28, when the next quarterly inflation report is also due to be discussed, please be warned that the otherwise somewhat uneventful Hungarian central bank policy is facing an interesting situation. Thi...

One Year Before the Election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2017

The new deputy head of the Presidential Administration, Sergei Kirienko, launched his first large-scale initiative to improve regional governance ahead of the 2018 presidential election. Several regional governors having issues with local elites or regional economic development were replaced with...

Inflation slows down in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Mar 2017 · 2 responses

We forecast a slowdown in the monthly inflation rate to 16 percent in March. However, the annual rate accelerates sharply to 592 percent (from 550 percent in February). Our March forecast reflects our assumption of a 28 percent decrease in the price of the dollar in the parallel market and slight...

​Turkey’s spat with EU: How serious is it?
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Mar 2017

Living in Turkey is waking up to a new “crisis” each day. This week’s flavor is a big tiff with Netherlands, which started with the expulsion of the Minister for Family Affairs Mrs. Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya from the country because she was trying to hold an impromptu election rally in Rotterdam. Mi...

Intense Monetary Easing and Gradual Resumption of Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 Mar 2017 · 1 response

The recession is ending – GDP has almost stopped shrinking – and the steep drop in inflation has allowed an intense cycle of real interest rate easing. Although the outlook is for renewed growth, this will not happen immediately. Expansion in the first two quarters of 2017 will be small, leading ...

Week of March 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2017

The government holds the auctions for the airports of Florianópolis, Porto Alegre, Salvador and Fortaleza. The Senate may analyze the proposal on the repatriation of undeclared funds held by Brazilians abroad. Based on information from Odebrecht’s plea bargain deal, the Prosecutor General of the ...

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