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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Encouraging news from the oil sector
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Feb 2018

An increase in price for the Ecuadorian crude oil basket to around $60/b is not the only good news coming from the sector. Minister Carlos Perez announced the Republic will continue to develop the Refinery from the Pacific, now the Refinery from Manabi, but now under more reasonable and attractiv...

The MNB this week: just as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2018

Yes, we had a rate-setting meeting on Tuesday and the second MIRS auction today. But everything went smoothly, just as expected.On Tuesday, the Monetary Council took no action and said essentially nothing new, may be except for saying that the MNB already started to buy mortgage bonds in January....

A blueprint for public expenditure in the future
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Feb 2018

An independent commission charged with making recommendations about the size, composition and efficiency of public spending in Colombia hasn’t advocated spending cuts, but has focused on efficiency, inflexibility and income redistribution. The Public Spending and Investment Commission (PSIC) h...

Lula still leads after conviction, but his ability to transfer votes declines
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2018

The first electoral poll released by Datafolha after the conviction of former President Lula by the TRF-4 Court shows that he retains his lead in the race but his image has suffered. More than half of voters would not vote for a candidate supported by the former president.

Bad legal news for Martinelli, bad political news for president Varela, good news for the economy
PANAMA · Report · 31 Jan 2018

U.S. District Judge Marcia Cooke declined to accept the writ of habeas corpus submitted by Martinelli´s defense and ratified judge Edwin Torres’ decision to approve Martinelli´s extradition to Panama for illegally monitoring phone calls and other communications of 150 people using a surveillance ...

The stock index continued to rise
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Jan 2018

The Indonesian capital market has seen new momentum since the beginning of 2018. After climbing by almost 20% in 2017 to reach a level of 6,355.65, the stock market index continued to rise to reach over 6,600 in the third week of January 2018, meaning that in a period of three weeks the Indonesia...

The abyss
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jan 2018 · 1 response

By moving up the date of the presidential election and imposing measures to rig it further in its favor, the government has all but killed mediated talks and the possibility of sanctions alleviation and minimal legitimacy abroad. Opposition leaders have announced that it will reject any deal t...

Week of January 29
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2018

While the Constitution states that congressional work resumes on February 2, Senate President Eunício Oliveira has extended the recess through February 5. Two new presidential election polls (Ipsos and Datafolha) will be released this week. The government is expected to draft a decree on the budg...

The Monetary Council is expected to be more or less passive at tomorrow's meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2018

The Monetary Council is scheduled to hold a rate-setting meeting tomorrow (January 30). Analysts unanimously expect the Council to leave interest rates untouched, and to do or say little new in general on this occasion. The widespread analyst expectation appears to be that the MNB is going to rem...

Economics: Mixed labor and industrial indicators amidst a structural side to a rising homicide rate
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2018

Economic data over the past month shows that industrial activity slowed again in November by falling slightly on a sequential basis, and by an annual 1.6%, as growth in manufacturing and utilities were not enough to offset the continuing contraction in mining and construction. The picture is m...

Favorable international scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2018

The causes of Brazil’s fiscal crisis and weak economic growth are exclusively domestic. Only structural reforms can avoid further unsustainable growth of the public debt and maintain the rising confidence and low real interest rates. While waiting for these reforms, however, the Brazilian economy...

Pessimism notwithstanding, growth picks up
CHINA · Report · 29 Jan 2018

Growth was robust and stable throughout 2017, even as fixed asset investment and consumption kept weakening. Exports rose, after two years of decline. Producer prices were elevated, while CPI showed little volatility. Monetary policy returned to moderately neutral levels, from its previous tight ...

Continuity ++
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Jan 2018

​His job was going to be “the most important appointment” that President Rodrigo Duterte was going to make.That was what Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez told the President, who was then less than a year in office, about his upcoming choice for the next governor of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipin...

Enjoy it while it lasts
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jan 2018

The politics section of the Monthly advances the hypothesis that markets are underpricing Turkey’s political risk. In our heuristic approach, we assert that conventional measures of country risk, such as CDS spreads or TL option volatility are swamped by exuberant risk appetite, masking the long-...

The “Turkish Trilemma” and the Road to November 2019
TURKEY · Presentation · 26 Jan 2018

* On the global front, we have “growth euphoria”, with “synchronized” growth and “secular stagnation (possibly) morphing into secular expansion”? * But caution is advised -- sharp divergence between geopolitics and markets, long term productivity concerns, etc. Need to be watchful of, among oth...

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