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Change in the global scenario: Less tolerance towards emerging countries
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Oct 2018

​With the American economy in full employment and stimulated by a strongly expansionary fiscal policy to boot, the Federal Reserve will continue raising the interest rate. The yield on 2-year Treasuries, which at the start of 2017 had risen to 1%, is now approaching 3%, attracting capital that pr...

An Initial Take on the USMCA
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2018

Just before a midnight deadline on September 30, Canada and the United States concluded their part of the talks following the earlier tentative deal for a new, revised Nafta that has at least tentatively been branded the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA. The consensus reached after ...

Politics: López Obrador’s airport conundrum
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2018 · 1 response

President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced this past week that he will be organizing a "public consultation" regarding the future Mexico City airport. The consultation plan calls for setting up between 1,000 and 1,500 voting booths in 538 municipalities between October 25 and 28, less ...

Next round of oil tax increase suspended
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Oct 2018

The Department of Finance (DoF) announced over the weekend that the executive will suspend the second round of oil tax adjustments under the TRAIN law that were supposed to come into effect in January. The adjustments involve a P2/liter increase in excise taxes imposed on fuel prices, importantly...

A window of opportunity opens up
TURKEY · Report · 14 Oct 2018 · 1 response

The decision to send Pastor Brunson home is testimony to President Erdogan’s flexibility, coming only 12 days after he personally accused the cleric of being a terrorist. There is now hope for sincere dialogue in areas of dispute with the US. However, the White House needs to reciprocate by endin...

Ukrainian church to receive Independence: Russia might escalate
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Oct 2018

I’m not a big expert in church affairs, but on October 11 there was a historical event in clerical world which will have far-reaching consequences for secular life in Ukraine. A bit of history to start. More than 300 years ago (1648-1657) there was a big war between Ukraine and Poland. National l...

Healthy numbers, but IMF deal is elusive
UKRAINE · Forecast · 12 Oct 2018

Things in Ukraine have grown quite confusing. At this writing, macro statistics remain mostly good. GDP is growing strongly, at +3.8% y/y in Q2, on the back of investment and consumption. The CAD remains modest, at close to 2% of GDP, though it has started widening in H2. General budget revenues ...

Vizcarra gets his way
PERU · Report · 11 Oct 2018

After gleaning that Congress was dragging its feet on his four proposed constitutional amendments, President Vizcarra addressed the nation on TV and accused the congressional majority of trying to modify them. The president implied that if his call for a referendum was delayed or denied, he could...

Bolsonaro starts the runoff with a large advantage over Haddad
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2018

The first Datafolha poll on the second round of the presidential race, published on October 10, shows a gap of 13 percentage points between Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT) in total votes (see table below). When considering only the valid vote, the distance of Bolsonaro over Haddad i...

​Brunson or sanctions?
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2018

Until the blood bath in Wall Street infected them, TL denominated assets largely outperformed EM peers despite an anti-inflation program full of hot air, primarily because global investors believe American Pastor Mr. Brunson will be released in his court hearing on Friday. In my last remarks on t...

The Legislative Assembly (Diputados) approved the new Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) and President Varela signed it today
PANAMA · In Brief · 10 Oct 2018

After a long tug-of-war between the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the Diputados, the new FRL was approved yesterday. The new fiscal architecture follows the pattern presented by the MEF in mid-year and discussed in our previous issue:1. The adjustment to the deficit (related to Panama...

KPMG to audit National Bank of Georgia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2018

KPMG TO AUDIT NATIONAL BANKThe Georgian Government announced on 27 September that they are appointing KPMG to audit the National Bank of Georgia. Georgia is eager to achieve a reputation for fiscal probity. This will make it easier to obtain loans. Tblisi has also spoken about developing itself a...

President of Uzbekistan meets President of France.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2018

President of Uzbekistan meets President of France. On 9 October the President of Uzbekistan visited Paris. President Mirziyoyev met President Macron of France. Uzbekistan considers this a major success since most Western governments were unwilling to receive the late President Karimov due to huma...

Feeling the shock
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Oct 2018

Our September 2018 inflation estimate is 231 percent, close to the August record of 236 percent. Accumulated inflation for the first nine months of the year rose to 125,748 percent and the September annual rate to 569,082 percent. For October we project a slight slowdown to 224 percent. Infla...

En route to the second round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2018

As per our expectations, the second round of the presidential elections will be a runoff between Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT). There were no surprises, despite expectations (30% likelihood) that Bolsonaro could win in the first round, or that Ciro Gomes (PDT) would substantially ...

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