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Inflation momentum slows
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Nov 2018

Headline inflation was unchanged at 6.7% year-on-year in October, reflecting slowing inflation momentum with the month-on-month rate decelerating to 0.3% from 0.9% in the previous month. The easing of price pressures may be traced largely to steady food prices even as prices of non-food items, ti...

Politics: Airport cancellation raises concerns
MEXICO · Report · 05 Nov 2018 · 2 responses

The decision by President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador to cancel the construction of the New Mexico City International Airport in Texcoco following a “public consultation” has sparked major public criticism by business leaders and analysts. The obvious questions are why did López Obrador do ...

The perspectives for Pension Reform this year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2018

Jair Bolsonaro may announce the names of cabinet ministers, as well as details about the structure of each ministry (the number of cabinet ministries should be reduced to 15-17). The president-elect will meet with President Michel Temer in Brasília. Judge Sérgio Moro, the future Minister of Justi...

Economics: The economy slowed slightly in August
MEXICO · Report · 05 Nov 2018

In general, the indicators released in October suggested a slowing of the economy, although some indicators showed improvements over levels of a year earlier. The Mexican economy grew a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in August compared to the same month a year earlier, according to the IGAE. The imp...

Challenges facing the new government: Fiscal consolidation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Nov 2018

The new government will have to face huge challenges. It will need to move beyond the current sluggish cyclical recovery as soon as possible and then promote acceleration of potential growth. To achieve these goals, it will have to execute an agenda of reforms, of which the most important necessa...

Present investment flows do not support a major shekel depreciation
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Nov 2018

Several economic indicators and surveys point to steady and fairly robust growth in Q318. Robust growth and a tight labor market are rate hike supportive, if inflation continues to be within target. We cannot rule out a rate hike on November 26, despite the fact that the MPC will be without an of...

October inflation: a relative moderation
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2018

Consumer price inflation came in at 2.7%, m/m, in October -- higher than the market consensus of around 2%, m/m -- with the 12-month rate hence rising further to 25.2%, from 24.5% in September. Domestic-PPI inflation was 0.9%, which meant a moderate decline in the 12-month rate to 45%, from 46.2%...

Further delay in Brexit talks represents a risk for the EU budget and Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2018

Well, Brexit is not only a problem for the EU budget because it will most probably take away some 9% of the latter's revenues, but also because delays in the conclusion of Brexit talks may cause a serious delay to the upcoming negotiations on the EU budget framework for 2021-2027. Very simply, th...

The great divergence
TURKEY · Report · 04 Nov 2018 · 1 response

Politics and the economy are moving in opposite directions, with the former improving visibly, as economic challenges seem to deepen. On the politics front, we expect the US to grant Turkey waivers from sundry Iran sanctions and hush up the Halkbank investigation, as Erdogan and Trump get read...

COSTA RICA: Interest rate adjustments. Right direction, but “too little…too late”
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 02 Nov 2018

On Wednesday October 31st, The Central Bank increased its whole spectrum of interest rates, in order to tackle two different, although related, problems. In doing so, the Bank´s president Rodrigo Cubero reaffirmed the control of inflation as the main objective of its policy under the current infl...

Sergio Moro in the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2018

It is clear that the appointment of Sergio Moro to the Ministry of Justice will have exceptionally positive repercussions among Jair Bolsonaro’s electorate and for his government as a whole. The appointment is positive because it creates expectations of a tough stance against systemic corruption ...

VEB will probably receive USD 4.6 Bn in budgetary funds.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2018

Vnescheconombank (VEB)'s board met with the government on 30 October with a view to agreeing the bank's recapitalization. A bill has been prepared by the Ministry of Finance and was discussed by the cabinet on 31 October.VEB is one of the largest banks and sponsors one of Moscow's top football te...

Bad news for China from Brazil; no news in the Chinese data
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 31 Oct 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Jair Bolsonaro’s election Sunday as President of Brazil is not, at least on paper, especially good news for China. The “tropical Trump” has attacked China consistently in his speeches, but even if he has no intention of following through, to the exte...

CBRT: Prepare for volatility in inflation
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Oct 2018

The CBRT has released this year's final Inflation Report today.2018 yearend inflation forecast was revised sharply up to 23.5% (midpoint of a range between 21.9% and 25.1%) from 13.4% previously, which is close to 24.2% of the latest CBRT expectation survey (October results), but higher than New ...

Trade war not yet hitting trade
CHINA · Forecast · 31 Oct 2018

Growth slowed in Q3, though it remained in a stable zone, with GDP expanding 6.5% y/y, down 0.3 pps from H1. Though the most uncertain factor is the U.S.-China trade war, trade is booming: in Q3, exports were up 10.3% y/y, and up 7 pps from Q2. Imports were up 19% y/y, up 8 pps from Q2. Trade als...

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