Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR: CHINA’S OUTLOOK IN THE TIME OF TRADE WARS...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China bank survey: The return of shadow banking
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Oct 2018

Beijing is returning to stimulus to prevent a decline of GDP at a time of the threat from the Trade War. We see this growth in lending, both on and off balance sheet, in our October bank survey. One policy that has been surprisingly effective is the increase in lending to small businesses, a key ...

Bolsonaro’s lead is practically irreversible; only a new fact could change the scenario
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2018

The new Datafolha poll on the second round of the presidential race shows that, considering only valid votes, Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) grew from 16 to 18 percentage points since last week.

The South African economy struggles to launch
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Oct 2018

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: South Africa is in a technical recession. This is the result of two consecutive quarterly contractions in the country’s gross domestic product during H1 2018. President Ramaphosa presented the country’s economic stimulus package during end-Septemb...

Higher growth, more employment means higher non-fuel inflation
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Oct 2018

GDP growth is still likely to decelerate from its recent cyclical peak between now and end-2020, but we see now higher growth rates for the next two years than we did three months ago, something similar to the current forecast from the MNB. This revision is based on the rather strong and probably...

Argentina Conference Call : On the road to stability?
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 Oct 2018

​Will the record IMF package and the new monetary policy be sufficient to stabilize the peso and Argentina's debt markets over the medium term? How will the current turbulence impact the 2019 elections?​

A small firm default that says something more
INDIA · In Brief · 17 Oct 2018

In our previous report, of 15 October, we had said: Deleveraging at NBFCs has adverse effects upon the real economy, particularly in areas where NBFCs were important, such as real estate and micro-finance. The stock market drama of 17 October turned out to be about a default by a real estate comp...

Pessimistic about Pension Reform this year, Congress believes in governability with Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2018

​A poll conducted by Arko Advice with 164 federal representatives (October 9-11) shows that, regardless of who wins the elections, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) or Fernando Haddad (PT), the majority is pessimistic about approving Pension Reform this year.

Nothing has been decided yet, but everything is being considered
ECUADOR · Forecast · 17 Oct 2018 · 1 response

The second quarter of 2018 ended with a small recovery in growth from Q1, but we do not think it is a convincing sign of a full economic recovery. Year over year GDP grew 0.9%, and quarter over quarter it is up 0.4%. Spending – both government and household – is supporting this upward trend, incr...

Bolsonaro leads by more than 20 million votes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2018

A study conducted by Arko Advice based on the Ibope poll and taking into consideration intended votes for candidates by region shows that Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) totals around 22 million votes. This means that to take the lead, Haddad would have to win over approxima...

Ibope poll reinforces Bolsonaro’s advantage
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2018

The first Ibope poll for the second round of the presidential election shows that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) has 59% of valid votes. Fernando Haddad (PT) has 41%. The 18-percentage point lead for Bolsonaro is higher than the 16-point lead registered by Datafolha last week. The poll reinforces Bolsonaro...

The trade deficit expands further in Q3
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Oct 2018

In Q318 the trade deficit increased by 26% q/q. * Manufacturing exports declined by 3.0% q/q. * Imports of consumer goods increased by 2.0%. * Imports of raw materials increased by 2.1%. * The trade deficit reached 7.7bn in Q318 following 6.1bn in Q2. The CA surplus is expected...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Oct 2018

The election results brought at least two surprises in the eyes of press observers, pollsters and political scientists alike: the unprecedented legislative turnover rate – more than half of the Chamber of Deputies and 80% of the Senate (of the 54 seats up for grabs, out of 81 total seats) – and t...

Perspectives for the second round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2018

Presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) undergoes medical evaluation on Thursday, October 18, to find out if he will be able to actively campaign and take part in the debates. This week several electoral polls will be released ahead of the runoff round. Ibope will also release polls on the ra...

Macroeconomic and financial stress in five areas
INDIA · Report · 15 Oct 2018

​In India today there are five areas of stress that are interacting with each other. They are: 1) the bond market; 2) non-bank financial companies; 3) mutual funds; 4) the banking crisis; and 5) currency depreciation. Investor flows into mutual funds, which fed demand for primary issuance of b...

Change in the global scenario: Less tolerance towards emerging countries
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Oct 2018

​With the American economy in full employment and stimulated by a strongly expansionary fiscal policy to boot, the Federal Reserve will continue raising the interest rate. The yield on 2-year Treasuries, which at the start of 2017 had risen to 1%, is now approaching 3%, attracting capital that pr...

Copyright 2025 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.