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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Positive effects of the lower risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2018

Might the Brazilian economy’s cyclical recovery accelerate at the start of the next administration? The current government has left a positive legacy of a low basic interest rate with inflation fluctuating around the target. With a still-wide negative GDP gap (unemployment rate of 12% and low uti...

Bolsonaro in Brasília again and to present elected governors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2018 · 1 response

This will be an intense week in the Lower House and Senate, despite the Thursday (November 15) holiday. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) will travel to Brasília again, where he will meet with Minister Rosa Weber (TSE). Bolsonaro and Paulo Guedes present elected governors with the new governme...

The bond market is starting to price in a possible dent in fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Nov 2018

Highlights: Wage growth is running at an annual pace of about 3.5% y/y. * Wage growth is impacted by a tight labor market and minimum wage hikes. Trend data point to recent moderation in wages. * This is fairly rapid and will have some impact on inflation. Business sector expectations f...

Taking off again
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Nov 2018

Hyperinflation took a break in October, in line with what we anticipated would happen after the September shock. We revised down our October estimate to 208%, from 224% in our previous report. The monthly inflation rate slowed significantly in October from 232 percent in September but, neverthele...

Local election dilemmas
TURKEY · Report · 11 Nov 2018

With less than five months left to critical municipal elections, AKP is rapidly losing support from voters. This means that it shall henceforth focus on the economy and elections, trying to preserve the status quo in foreign policy. The need to balance Kurdish and nationalist votes require tou...

China’s infrastructure model is broken
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Nov 2018

China’s economic growth in the near term will depend on further investment in infrastructure, which has been the main driver in the past. The switch to consumption will take time. Our analysis suggests there are inadequate fiscal resources to continue to generate significant growth through invest...

South African state-owned enterprises: A drag on fiscal position and a threat to financial stability
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Nov 2018

For sustainable economic growth, development and employment creation, nations need a financial system that is “resilient to systemic shocks, facilitates efficient financial intermediation, and mitigates the macroeconomic costs of disruptions in such a way that confidence in the system is maintain...

At a turning point?
ECUADOR · Presentation · 08 Nov 2018 · 4 responses

Ecuador is at a turning point – opportunities include a willingness to change from Correa’s economic model, optimistic perspectives on the oil industry and better relationships with trade partners. Risks include lack of political coherence and a weakening of Moreno’s popularity, as well as the po...

Surprise, surprise: bad news on CPI-inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2018

CPI-inflation for October came out at 0.5% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning, up from 3.6% yoy in the previous month, beating Portfolio.hu's 3.7% yoy analyst consensus (and even more our 3.6% yoy forecast, to tell the truth). KSH's core inflation rose to 2.6% yoy, from September's 2.4% yoy, and non-fuel...

GDP growth slides anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Nov 2018

After the disappointment in the previous quarter, today’s news that 3Q18 GDP slowed to 6.1%, a shade below the median analysts’ forecast, was less of a surprise. The pattern of growth was similar to the earlier quarters, i.e., robust domestic demand that was offset by higher net imports. However,...

Why isn’t the US a trade-surplus economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Nov 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • In a well-functioning world of global trade, the US should either run a more-or-less balanced trade account or it should run persistent trade surpluses. In standard trade theory, it is the norm for rich, mature economies with high income levels and ef...

Three glorious quarters
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 07 Nov 2018

Economic activity grew 7.3% in Q3, from Q3 2017, and cumulative 2018 growth to September was 6.9%. These are extraordinary figures that surprised even the most optimistic observers. Inflation remained very low in September, up 0.08% from August, while accumulated January-September inflation was 1...

CPI-inflation to remain unchanged in October, consumer demand is moderately cooling
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Nov 2018

KSH is scheduled to come forward with its CPI-inflation data tomorrow. We expect the headline rate at 0.3% mom, 3.6% yoy, unchanged from September, as a result of the combination of a 1.4% mom rise by fuel prices and 0.2% mom non-fuel inflation. Our fuel-price forecast is the same number by which...

Toxic gold
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 06 Nov 2018

Toxic gold President Trump's 1 November 2018 Executive Order (EO) hits Venezuelan gold, a sprawling business for the ruling elites and the main route used to circumvent the August 2017 sanctions. Fear of sanctions will slow the formal gold business in Venezuela, eventually leading to paralysis in...

Macroeconomic conditions in the Jul-Sep quarter
INDIA · In Brief · 06 Nov 2018 · 1 response

GDP measurement in India is unreliable. We have built a `coincident indicator', which is a linear combination of trusted and well-measured series, to help get a sense of business cycle conditions.We are in a position to have an estimate for the Jul-Aug-Sep 2018 quarter: +3.87% above trend. There ...

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