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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Current Account Deficit Contracts in 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Mar 2017

Following an increase during the third quarter of 2016 (to 3.8% of GDP), the deficit on the current account narrowed markedly during the fourth quarter of 2016 to register 1.7% of GDP. In a similar manner, the current account deficit for 2016 as a whole declined to 3.3% of GDP from 4.4% of GDP in...

Lenin Moreno leads electoral polls
ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Mar 2017

Four pollsters published electoral forecasts yesterday and all of them give an advantage to the official candidate Lenin Moreno that is around 4% to 5% of valid votes. The trend, however, seems to favor Moreno which makes it quite difficult for Lasso to turn this result around. On average they pl...

After the National People’s Congress
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Mar 2017

Special points to highlight in this issue: • There have been many arguments proffered over the past several years in favor of both depreciating and stabilizing the RMB and in favor of both raising and lowering Chinese interest rates. • From a purely economic point of view, the benefits for Ch...

A Sleepy Summer
CHILE · Report · 21 Mar 2017

The economy was off to a better-than-expected start in 2017. In the 12 months to January, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (Imacec) expanded 1.7%. Yet activity is still weak. Correcting for the number of business days, the Imacec in January grew by a modest 1.5% y/y. Imacec in February will...

Week of March 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Mar 2017

The government will announce cuts to the Federal Budget and will indicate the need for tax increases to meet the year’s R$ 130 billion deficit target. The requests for inquiries presented by General Prosecutor of the Republic Rodrigo Janot will be received by the rapporteur of the Lava Jato in th...

The GDP Gap and the Behavior of Potential GDP
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2017

Why has inflation been falling? The explanation rests in the combination the power of monetary policy, whose effects can be belated, but will not fail to occur, and the large and persistent negative output gap. Not only is the unemployment rate now below the NAIRU (the rate that does not accelera...

The Surplus Budget Is Back in Early 2017
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Mar 2017

Following a massive spending campaign in December, the central government’s cash budget turned back into a seasonally unjustified, significant surplus in the first two months of 2017. The monthly surplus of February was especially notable, as it had no precedent in the previous fifteen years at l...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 19 Mar 2017

There was dearth of new branded polls last week, which is rarity for Turkey. Several pollsters commented that because of the high ratio of undecideds they have chosen not to publish results.Less reliable evidence confirms our finding that the race is a dead heat. We suspect AKP will find new gimm...

The IMF shifts Executive Board meeting on Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Mar 2017

Interesting turn of events. Just one day before the IMF Executive Board meeting on Ukraine, scheduled previously on March 20th, the meeting was cancelled. Finance Ministry immediately published explanation claiming that the IMF requested estimates of macro-economic consequences of the official ba...

Politics: PRI Electoral Dilemmas
MEXICO · Report · 16 Mar 2017

The PRI’s recent celebration of its 88th anniversary embodied all the organization’s existential woes as it heads into a crucial showdown in the State of Mexico and prepares for the 2018 presidential elections. One of the most uninspired, disorganized and poorly attended on record, the event fail...

Economics: Mixed Data on Consumption
MEXICO · Report · 16 Mar 2017

Private consumption grew at a real 12 month rate of 3.3% during 2016, the strongest percentage increase since 2012 and an extension of a growth trend dating back to 2015. The report also reaffirmed this demand component’s role as the Mexican economy’s main growth driver throughout 2016. But th...

Dominguez’s tax reform?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Mar 2017

When President Duterte was asked in Tuesday’s press briefing whether he supported the tax reform bill, his answer was an unequivocal “Yes.” When pressed further about whether he also supported the increases in excise taxes on oil and automobiles embedded in the Department of Finance’s (DoF) packa...

More “Temporary” Tightening, As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 16 Mar 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate by 75 bps today, to 11.75%, while keeping all other short term rates intact (see chart). The move, which is a compromise of sorts -- because it raises rates temporarily through liquidity operations without altering the fram...

Official Ban on Cargo Traffic with Donbas
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Mar 2017

Forceful dismantling of one of the block-posts, which prevented coal supplies from Donbas, triggered quite dangerous developments. Few parliamentary parties Samopomitch (led by Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyy) and UKROP (funded by oligarch Igor Kolomoyskiy) made very harsh public statements and star...

Watch out on March 28: an advance warning on monetary policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Mar 2017

Two weeks ahead of the next regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council on March 28, when the next quarterly inflation report is also due to be discussed, please be warned that the otherwise somewhat uneventful Hungarian central bank policy is facing an interesting situation. Thi...

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