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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: New risks to the pace of inflation
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2018

The unexpected high at which inflation ended in 2017 has sparked considerable discussion and concern due both to the extent and pace at which consumer prices have risen. We at GEA have long reported on expectations of an acceleration owing to gains seen for some time in prices for diverse inpu...

China’s hidden stimulus: LGFVs local investment platforms load up on bonds
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Jan 2018

Chinese officials have made many statements in recent months about reducing risk in the financial system, and “deleveraging.” However, while tools such as higher interest rates and rules to reduce risky assets have targeted the weakest banks, credit continues to flow into the economy. Credit s...

Effective deeds and not only sweet words
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Jan 2018

Alianza Pais, the most powerful political party of the last 10 years, finally broke last week when the hard Correista group decided to exit the party and create a new one called The People’s Revolution headed once more by Rafael Correa. This group is actively campaigning against the “yes” to t...

The fiscal challenge
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jan 2018

The recession is over and the next challenges facing the country are to achieve reforms in two areas: fiscal control and productivity growth. In this report we reiterate the magnitude of the fiscal challenge in the medium term. The problem of the debt dynamic will not be resolved only with approv...

Zuma Count Down: the "non-president" president of SA
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 22 Jan 2018 · 1 response

over the past couple of days, it has become clear that Zuma's days are numbered. On Thursday last week, the newly elected National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC passed a motion to negotiate an exit plan for Zuma. Then the NEC moved quickly to demonstrate that Zuma has no de facto president...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jan 2018

On Saturday evening, the Turkish government heralded the commencement of Operation Olive Branch to root out PYD-YPG and remaining ISIS elements out of Northwest Syrian canton of Afrin. It will not be easy to achieve that objective, considering how well-prepared and committed the pro-PKK Kurdish m...

President suggests Smoliy as replacement to Hontareva
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jan 2018

President Poroshenko finally made his decision about new Head of the National bank of Ukraine. Today he suggested for this position Ykiv Smoliy, currently acting Head of the National bank. Previously observers discussed Volodymyr Lavrenchuk (Chairman of the Board of Aval bank) and Roman Shpek (He...

New privatization law approved
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jan 2018

Today parliament finally approved new law on privatization. This law is among the IMF requirements. The key features of the law include (a) introduction of independent investment advisors that accompany sale of large state owned enterprises, (b) sale of small stakes of state property through Inte...

Golden scenario to run until end-2019, sort of
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Jan 2018

Our new quarterly forecast marks an unusually smooth macroeconomic path for Hungary in 2018-2019. This should come about with annual real GDP growth above 3%, relatively low, though rising, inflation, a material, though shrinking, external income surplus, and a moderately decreasing government de...

The reserve bank opts to keep interest rates unchanged amid credit rating uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Jan 2018

The South African Reserve Bank’s Governor Lesetja Kganyago has announced today that the MPC has voted in favour of leaving the repo rate unchanged at 6.75 and therefore the prime interest rate at 10.25. The Reserve Bank MPC’s decision to not change interest rates comes despite the latest infla...

In a stupor
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Jan 2018

Hyperinflation is an unprecedented experience in Venezuela. The population is quickly moving from stupor and bewilderment to a frantic search for survival tools. Inflation accelerates dramatically as demand for money collapses, money supply surges and shortages worsen. The monthly inflation ra...

MPC: No action, somewhat more hawkish
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2018

​In line with the consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) did not change any of the short-term interest rates at today’s meeting, keeping the Late Liquidity Window lending rate at 12.75%, one-week repo rate at 8.0%, and the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respect...

New ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa injects some optimism into the South African economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 17 Jan 2018

South Africa’s Growth: The South African economy has managed to grow at a relatively decent rate (2.0%) during the third quarter of 2017, following the surprise 2.8% growth in the second. Generally, however, the country’s economic growth has been stuck in low gear, averaging only 2.1% over the pa...

Stronger than expected opposition downplays growth optimism
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 16 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Negotiations with governors and trade union leaders during November and discussions in Congress during December proved to be more difficult than anticipated in our previous quarterly report.​ Several desirable features of the tax and labor reforms had to be abandoned or postponed. Instead, the...

Politics: 2018 campaign entering critical phase
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jan 2018

As the three coalitions embark on the final month of the preliminary phase of the presidential race, in which they are using the nomination contests -whose outcomes have been a foregone conclusion for some time- to get their candidates better known and polish their image, they also brace for an e...

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