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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

This time is different
TURKEY · Forecast · 28 Oct 2018 · 1 response

After an exceptionally volatile August, markets have stabilized and turned even constructive in recent weeks, relatively speaking, on the back of myriad of interventions by the government, but most importantly thanks to the release of Pastor Brunson from prison. Yet, the damage is done. We fear t...

Elements of fiscal adjustment are appearing here and there
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Oct 2018

Following the cutback of maximum advance payments on EU-backed development projects in September, new elements of fiscal restraint appeared, thus far sporadically, in recent weeks. These included:- the discontinuation of a 30% government subsidy on payments into building society schemes, effectiv...

Despite a six-point drop, Bolsonaro remains the favorite
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2018

The new Datafolha poll on the presidential race shows that Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) has dropped from 18 to 12 percentage points. The six-point reduction in Bolsonaro’s lead is still not a threat to his probability of winning, for the following reasons: 1) Because ...

Monetary noise from Beijing: Little support for equities - yet
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Oct 2018

Chinese equities ended the week higher after senior Chinese officials expressed support for the markets. The comments by officials in the central bank and the central economic leadership were interpreted as indications of a support for stocks. However, the comments focused more on the fundamental...

Macroeconomic Outlook
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 26 Oct 2018

Challenges for the new administration include the fate of the tax reform, the aftermath of the peace plan, and a strategy for Venezuelan refugees into the country. Specifics topics in this Colombia presentation are: • Possible content of financing law, according to the director of DIAN and our ...

Eurobonds Ahead of the IMF
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2018

We have raised $2 billion through Eurobonds. Ahead of the IMF wire. The funds appeared to be quite expensive and we hear many local observers already crying foul about this placement. Nevertheless, it’s a very good deal for Ukraine improving our chances to survive smoothly the doubled elections y...

South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 2018: Fiscal déjà vu
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Oct 2018

Just two weeks after assuming the position of South Africa’s Finance Minister, Tito Mboweni had the unenviable task of tabling his maiden Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on October 24, 2018. The MTBPS is tabled annually in parliament in October and sets out the economic context and as...

Policy rate unchanged, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Oct 2018

At today’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the policy (one-week repo) rate was left unchanged at 24% (simple), as expected (see chart). There were a few outliers in the polls, expecting (or hoping?) that the Bank would hike rates with a view to rebuilding its credibility and/or because real po...

A vote on Finance Minister Carrasquilla in Congress?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 24 Oct 2018 · 1 response

An eventual no-confidence vote (moción de censura) against Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla would be an unwelcome event. Some congressmen would like to exploit this as an opportunity to force the Duque administration to negotiate. We think that the prospect of the government’s losing its mos...

Economic projections for 2019 are optimistic…but some issues must be closely followed
PANAMA · Report · 24 Oct 2018

International analysts are bullish about the growth of the Panamanian economy next year: the IMF projects 6.8%, the World Bank 5.4%, ECLAC 5.2%, and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) assumed an implicit real growth rate of 5.8% in the budget (not yet approved). We projected a 5% growth ra...

The Maduro Plan, two months later
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Oct 2018

Two months after Maduro’s wayward speech introducing his so-called “Recovery, Growth, and Prosperity Program”, we have a clearer idea of the government’s playbook and objectives. We are equally clear on the fact that said plan is bad, and its implementation will be worse. Maduro’s base seems t...

Reduced lead does not alter Bolsonaro’s favoritism
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2018

The new Ibope poll on the runoff round of the presidential election shows that, considering valid votes, Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) decreased from 18 to 14 percentage points. The reduced lead over Haddad is a consequence of recent attacks on the PSL candidate. Asid...

​AKP-MHP suspend alliance, as Erdogan rips apart Saudi account of Khashoggi murder
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2018

Let’s put first things first.Tuesday witnessed a monumental development in Turkish politics, as MHP leader Mr. Bahceli broke off the alliance in upcoming March local elections with AKP. While the status of the broader alliance is up in the air, as far as I am concerned, it has ended in practice, ...

Economics: New push to expand Banxico mandate
MEXICO · Report · 22 Oct 2018

The Workers Party (PT) recently proposed in Congress constitutional reforms aimed at expanding Banco de México’s constitutional mandate to include the promotion of economic growth and employment in addition to its current focus on defending “buying power”. It also aims to assure that the monetary...

Bolsonaro almost there and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2018

This is the final week of the campaign before the runoff round in the presidential election and 14 gubernatorial races. Candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) is unlikely to participate in the debates scheduled for this week. Gubernatorial debates are also scheduled. Several electoral polls are scheduled...

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