Politics: Fragile Presidential Nomination Process
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2017

Most major parties are facing a tough, uphill battle to come up with a winning presidential candidate at a time when a growing slice of the electorate is fed up with parties, and such voters are more inclined to cast their ballots for the candidates who appear to have the most appealing personali...

Infrastructure Drive
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Jul 2017

The Indonesian economy has been relatively sanguine through the end of the second quarter. Kohlberg Kravis and Roberts, a large private equity fund, made a bullish report on the Indonesian economy based on their recent visit to the country. The strong endorsement by the firm promoted further favo...

Cost Rica: Staring Down Tough Times
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Jul 2017

The Costa Rican economy will keep adjusting over the next 18 months. The strategy of low interest rates and relative currency stability followed in 2015-2016 started to break down in H1 2017, as shown by the events in Q2, when the Central Bank raised its monetary policy rate five times, from 1.7...

MPC: Still On Hold, As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), as expected, did not alter any of the short-term interest rates at today’s meeting, leaving the Late Liquidity Window rate at 12.25%, the one-week repo rate at 8.0%, and the O/N lending/borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respectively (Graph 1).

The medium term: More questions than answers
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 27 Jul 2017

Several signs indicate that the Colombian economy is still not recovering. In employment indicators, retail trade, manufacturing and construction, things do not look very promising. Most retail sub-sectors are either falling, or performing very poorly. So the slowdown drags on, with no recovery ...

President Poroshenko deprives Mikheil Saakashvili Ukrainian citizenship
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Jul 2017

It seems that silent summer has ended. Yesterday State migration service of Ukraine reported that President Petro Poroshenko deprived Ukrainian citizenship Mikheil Saakashvili, ex-president of Georgia and currently leader of opposition party ‘Movement of new forces’. The decision was justified wi...

Financial Risk Likely to Be Contained
CHINA · Report · 26 Jul 2017

GDP rose 6.9% y/y in H1, up only 0.1 pps from Q4 2016. Industrial output rose 6.9% y/y, up 0.8 pps, and fixed asset investment rose 8.6%. But fixed asset investment’s real growth rate was just 3.8% y/y, down 5 pps from last year. Negatively affected by weak investment growth, we expect H2 growth ...

On Volatility and Predictability
CHILE · Report · 25 Jul 2017

Retail sales in May looked relatively strong, but monthly data should be taken with a grain of salt, as it has become increasingly volatile. Retail sales still may be favored by a recovery in the stock of durable goods, especially in cars. Manufacturing in May had a better performance than in pre...

Good but Sad
UKRAINE · Forecast · 25 Jul 2017 · 1 response

The general picture for Ukraine’s economy is both good and not so good. The economy is now in the black, and GDP grew a much better than expected 2.5% y/y in Q1 2017. Still, growth was driven by a temporary improvement in the balance of trade — a trend that shifted during April. We now expect GDP...

Dicom auctions: A Band-aid
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Jul 2017

After two months of auctions, the Dicom system proves to be not much more than a Band-aid to Venezuela’s foreign exchange system. Gains are modest: it opened up a more transparent channel to official forex, establishes a (tenuous) relationship between the exchange rate and market conditions, and ...

Ukraine puts up for sale state shares of eight electricity distributing companies
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jul 2017 · 1 response

Yesterday the State property fund of Ukraine announced start of auctions on sale of state shares (25% for each company) of eight electricity distributing companies. The list for sale includes Odesaoblenergo, DTEK Dniprooblenergo, DTEK Dniproenergo, Donetskoblenergo, Donbasenergo, Sumyoblenergo, Z...

State of the Nation Address, Year 2 (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2017

As it turned out, somewhere in the middle of the President's two-hour speech, in between a lengthy denunciation of communist insurgents and his demand that America returned the historic Balangiga church bells taken in 1901 during the Philippine American war, President Rodrigo Duterte mentioned th...

Week of July 24
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2017

In the final week of the parliamentary recess, intense negotiations continue to revolve around the vote on the accusation against President Michel Temer in the Lower House. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Central Bank meets to set the benchmark interest rate. Several important indicators will be re...

“No, The Table Wasn’t Set”
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Jul 2017 · 1 response

“No, the table wasn’t set.” That was President Lenín Moreno’s reply to former president Rafael Correa, who claimed he left the table “set for the new government” -- referring to a supposedly buoyant economic situation (assessed as such only by Correa and his loyal followers in Congress, and by so...

We Forecast the SELIC Rate at the End of the Year will be 7.5%
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jul 2017

We have altered our projection for the SELIC rate at the end of 2017 to 7.5% a year, for three reasons. First, although the economy is on the verge of recovery, all indications are that it will be very slow, keeping the GDP gap negative for a good while longer. Second, mainly due to a highly favo...