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Bolsonaro wave interrupted in SP and MG
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2018

The last four electoral polls conducted by Ibope in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the most populous states in the country, show that the pro-Bolsonaro wave has plateaued. Comparing yesterday’s poll (October 3) with Monday’s poll, Bolsonaro only continued to grow in Rio de Janeiro, w...

China’s Belt and Road: Debt trap – for China?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Oct 2018

I spent three days at the end of September in the city of Astana in Kazakhstan, at a conference that was part of a larger effort by Nazarbayev University to create a China Centre. Kazakhstan is feeling pressure due to its location between China and Russia and is seeking greater depth of knowledge...

Bolsonaro vs. Haddad contest practically certain
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2018

The Ibope poll released yesterday, October 3, reinforces the idea that the presidential race will most likely be decided in a runoff round between Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT). Compared to Monday’s Ibope poll, the candidates oscillated within the 2-percentage point margin of erro...

Will the revised new Mining Charter spur more investment in mining?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Oct 2018

Echoing President Ramaphosa’s statement during his delivery of the economic stimulus package on September 21, Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe argued that with the new Mining Charter 2018, gazetted on September 27, the government aims to create more regulatory certainty in the sector. In...

Bolsonaro vs. Haddad contest consolidated
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Oct 2018

In the Datafolha poll released yesterday, October 2, Jair Bolsonaro expanded his lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) to 11 points. The other candidates remained stable. The result confirms the data presented by Ibope on October 1 and shows that the Bolsonaro vs. Haddad runoff round scenario is an incr...

September inflation: Ugly numbers
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2018

September CPI-inflation came in at a much higher than expected 6.3%, m/m (consensus: 3.6%), raising the 12-month rate sharply higher to 24.5%, from 17.9% in August, while the increase in producer prices, at 10.9% in the month, was even steeper, with the 12-month rate rising to a whopping 46.2%, f...

Good news and bad news about fiscal policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Oct 2018

There seems to be indeed some excitement about the end-2018 government debt ratio, judged by the flow of recent announcements by high-ranking officials, and also the data work carried out by the statistical office (KSH).To start with, the KSH revised its historical GDP numbers upwards the other d...

Is rising household debt helping China to rebalance?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 02 Oct 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * It is not meaningful to refer to a rebalancing of the Chinese economy if the growth in the consumption share of GDP is powered by rising household debt. The goal of rebalancing is to allow China to grow without a worsening of the country’s debt burden...

Bolsonaro expands his lead over Haddad and is growing on Lula’s turf
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2018

The Ibope poll released yesterday, October 1, shows that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) improved his performance compared to the previous poll and has expanded his lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) who remains the runner up, but has stalled in his growth. The other candidates oscillated within the 2-percentag...

Good economic news in the midst of uncertainty
INDONESIA · Report · 02 Oct 2018

This publication reports on developments in September prior to the tragic earthquake over the past weekend. We will keep you apprised of that situation in coming reports. The month of September 2018 brought several pieces of good economic news. The first was the report of the Minister of Finan...

Growth is hectic
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 02 Oct 2018

Economic expansion continues to be powerful. GDP growth January-July was up 6.7% from the same period last year, with all activities registering relatively high growth rates. Monetary policy also continues stable. The restricted monetary base December-August was down 5.41%; the broad monetar...

Palocci plea bargain deal could harm Haddad
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2018

There is a new fact in the presidential race, and this time it hurts the PT. Today (October 1, 2018), Judge Sérgio Moro lifted the secrecy of the plea bargain deal signed by former Minister under the PT, Antonio Palocci. Arko had previously alerted clients about the possibility of the plea barga...

Economic data mixed but some positive signs, and AMLO holds all the cards, for now
MEXICO · Forecast · 01 Oct 2018

There was plenty of data published this past month confirming a further slowing of the Mexican economy. Between April and June, GDP decelerated from levels of the previous five quarters year, a development that reinforced our January forecast that growth will slow to 1.9% this year. Factory acti...

Countdown to the elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2018

This is the final week of the campaign before the first round of the elections (October 7). Electoral ads will continue to air on TV and radio until Thursday, October 4, the date of the last televised presidential debate, which will air on TV Globo. Several electoral polls will be released throug...

Finally, good news on free trade
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Oct 2018

Finally, after two years of uncertainty --created by President Trump-- and 13 months of hard negotiations a trilateral trade pact between Mexico, Canada and the US was agreed at the last minute. In the future this agreement will be known as USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement). Legal texts have jus...

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