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The Party Congress Date is Set
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 31 Aug 2017

The Party Congress has been officially set for October 18, which seems smack in the middle of the expected range. I asked one of my students to get me the previous dates, and she told me: 18th Congress: 2012.11.8 17th Congress: 2007.10.15 16th Congress: 2002.11.8 15th Congress: 1997.9.12 One piec...

New threats, familiar dilemmas
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Aug 2017

U.S. sanctions against Venezuela aim to starve its public sector of resources but leave enough room for Venezuela to meet foreign debt obligations. Though we perceive that the risk of messy default has grown, we continue to believe that the government will go to great lengths to prevent the chaos...

Canal Prepares for Greater Global Competition as Panama Prepares for Financial Transparency
PANAMA · Report · 30 Aug 2017

In this report, we review the most recent economic data, and present two positive themes that support our medium-term forecast: initiatives to promote transparency in the financial sector, and several logistics projects in the Canal area Recent data show that service and exports sectors are ex...

Guatemala: No Surprises, But Rising Worry
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Aug 2017

The outlook for the Guatemalan economy has not changed significantly since March, when we discussed our 2017-2018 outlook. Growth continues to be moderate; support for the current account remains positive, basically due to a rise in private remittances; the fiscal situation remains under control;...

Assessing the impact of sanctions
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Aug 2017

The 24 August 2017 batch of U.S. sanctions aims at closing the Venezuelan government’s access to new funding through operations with U.S. persons and dealings in the United States, including transactions settled through U.S. institutions, whether as a result of clearing U.S. dollar payments throu...

No Good News, But Glimmers of Hope
CHILE · Report · 29 Aug 2017 · 1 response

The latest national accounts were unequivocal about the sluggishness of the economy during H1; we cannot find a single sign of recovery.GDP expanded just 0.5% y/y during the first semester, making it the worst half since H2 2009. Yet there are a few signs of improved expectations. Strong domes...

​Indonesia: Full Confidence on Independence Day
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Aug 2017

Indonesian Independence Day on August 17 was celebrated with high self-confidence from the government. The celebration was marked by a variety of traditional dress from around the country, and it displayed the cultural variety this country has always enjoyed. President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) wore t...

Some background for S&P's improvement of Hungary's BBB- outlook to positive
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Aug 2017

Honestly, S&P's latest move to raise the outlook on Hungary's BBB- long-term credit rating to positive from stable took analysts, including us, by surprise. Previously, there was some mentioning of a potential for a step like this, but only as a possible secondary scenario.In hindsight, nonethele...

Week of August 28
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2017

President Michel Temer travels to China to take part in the BRICS Summit and meetings with authorities and investors. The government will send the 2018 Budget to Congress by Thursday, August 31. In the Lower House, a new effort to vote on Political Reform. The Senate holds confirmation hearings f...

Economics: Nafta Talks Off to an Opaque Start
MEXICO · Report · 28 Aug 2017

The joint statement issued by Nafta countries following the first round of renegotiations contained only the vaguest generalities about what they discussed and if any progress was achieved. Stakeholders briefed on the talks were similarly circumspect, but much can be gleaned from the texts of the...

Vice President Jorge Glass Included in Criminal Case
ECUADOR · In Brief · 28 Aug 2017 · 1 response

Last Friday, the absolute majority of the Assemblywith absolute majority approved the inclusion of Vice-President Jorge Glass in a criminal case related to corruption during his office under President Correa's mandate. The figure is that of "illicit association" --somewhat of lower level compared...

Managing Financial Outflows with Cautions
CHINA · Report · 28 Aug 2017

Growth remained generally stable in July. Industrial output was up 6.4% y/y, similar to previous months. But fixed asset investment, the key growth driver, climbed only 6.8% y/y in real terms, its lowest rate this year, and was down 1.5 pps from Q2. Its adjusted growth rate is less than 5%, which...

Economic Recovery and the Credit Channel
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Aug 2017

With inflation expectations firmly anchored to the target and current inflation subdued, the size of the monetary easing cycle will be dictated by how fast activity recovers. Strong evidence of various types exists that the period of contracting GDP is over, but there are also many indicators tha...

Politics: AMLO picks the Mexico City Candidate
MEXICO · Report · 28 Aug 2017

Late last Thursday evening a key piece of the 2018 electoral puzzle fell into place as Morena leaders leaked the name of the party’s nominee to be the next mayor of Mexico City. The choice of Claudia Sheinbaum, a respected scientist and the head of government in the capital’s Tlalpan borough did ...

No clear and present danger
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Aug 2017

We will start our official coverage next week, but seeing how EM currencies became suddenly popular once again after Yellen and Draghi speeches at Jackson Hole, I felt it was incumbent upon me to give a run-down on political risks to determine whether they could derail the TL rally. The brief ans...

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