​ATTENTION: Turkey could be heading to a presidential referendum
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Oct 2016

On Tuesday, the leader of the nationalist opposition party (MHP) Mr. Bahceli bashed President Erdogan for overstepping his authority, a case which became extremely acute after the aborted coup attempt. He invited him to step back, or instruct AKP to amend the constitution to transition Turkey to ...

Government shows strength and approves Federal Spending Amendment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2016

​The government obtained an important victory in the House of Representatives in guaranteeing first-round approval of the constitutional amendment that limits federal spending. The score was 366 votes in favor, 111 against and two abstentions.

Minister of Finance Under Attack Again: Can it be the President's Last Attempt?
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 11 Oct 2016

Hot on the heel of President Zuma's potential reinstatement of 837 cases of fraud, corruption and racketeering, together with Public Protector's statement that she is going to go public about the case of State Capture (with President Zuma as the key role player) on Friday this week, the National ...

Week of October 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2016

The fiscal austerity effort will see its first big test in the House this week. There are some obstacles: dissatisfaction within the governing coalition, obstruction from the opposition and the Wednesday holiday. Nevertheless, the main text should be approved. President Michel Temer presents Soci...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Oct 2016 · 1 response

The result of the municipal elections (mayors and council members) on October 2nd unquestionably defined a new outline of the political scenario in Brazil. If any doubts remained about the end of the PT’s cycle in power, the vote tallies laid them to rest. The economic recovery has been much s...

Caution About the Start of Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Oct 2016

The most recent economic activity indicators were disappointing and make it probable that GDP will contract further in the third quarter this year. Apparently the recession will be a bit longer than was expected a few weeks ago, and the latest numbers strengthen the forecast that the monetary eas...

Another unusually big fiscal cash surplus in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2016

The NGM has just reported a HUF 272 billion (9.4% of GDP) central government cash surplus for September. This reduced the cumulative Q1-Q3 deficit to just HUF 2 billion, meaning that on cash basis, the central government budget fully balanced over this period. The cumulative deficit fell from 3.8...

In Uncharted Waters
TURKEY · Report · 09 Oct 2016

We concede that AKP’s Gulenist purge is mutating into an all-out crackdown on dissent, with Alevites and Kurds also coming down under the hammer.The purge is unlikely to end in the next three months, with the number of affected at least doubling from the current headlines. The magnitude of the st...

PC growth slows but business sentiment improves
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Oct 2016

Several indicators are pointing to slower PC demand. This follows rapid growth of 10% SAAR in Q2. Slower growth in June-Aug is apparent in chain store sales, retail trade, consumer imports and debit card purchases. The Poalim consumer confidence index declined 3.1 points in September but remains ...

Month's Data Shows More Softening, whilst a potential PAN-AMLO race shapes up
MEXICO · Report · 06 Oct 2016

Indicators published during September painted a less than encouraging picture of the direction of the Mexican economy beginning with industrial data for July that showed output increased at a mere 0.3% year on year, according to seasonally adjusted data. Though there was a slight firming of manuf...

Municipal elections: Alckmin’s winning hand
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2016

Dória wins in the first round, and the PSDB takes over 107 new city governments, the best performance of any party.

Growth Would Address Fiscal and Monetary Imbalances
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Oct 2016

This report covers three interlinked macroeconomic issues: a) the deterioration of the fiscal balance; b) the monetary impact of that deficit on Central Bank inflation targets, and the Bank’s modification of the reference rate; and c) whether high-frequency activity data sends hopeful signals for...

MTP 2017-19: Reality Bites
TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2016

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim announced the outlines of the government’s new Medium Term Program (MTP) today, the details of which will be available on Thursday. Recall that the previous MTP was originally issued in October (of 2015) but then revised in January this year. The table below provide...

Growth Smooth, and Picking Up
UKRAINE · Forecast · 04 Oct 2016

The Ukrainian economy has returned to a smooth growth trajectory. Absent any unexpected news, or shifts in macroeconomic trends, it’s hard to be displeased. External demand remains weak, and will hardly become a near-term driver of growth, though internal consumption has recovered steadily, which...

The European crisis in seven steps
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Oct 2016

As much of a threat China’s high and rising debt burden has become to its continued growth, the biggest risks to the global economy probably lie in Europe, and especially in its banking system. • Growth rates in peripheral Europe continue to be revised downwards, and deadlines for budget deficit...