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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

COSTA RICA: Dismal news
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Oct 2018 · 1 response

Worrying economic news continues in Costa Rica. Unlike what we’ve highlighted in previous reports, negative trends now dominate short-term economic indicator trends: we’re seeing a slowdown in economic activity, merchandise and services exports, credit to the private sector and fiscal revenues. T...

A milestone in the institutional structure of RBI
INDIA · In Brief · 31 Oct 2018

1. Under the existing RBI Act, there is no autonomy of the RBI. Section 7 of the RBI Act empowers the government to give `directions' to the RBI on any subject, without any transparency provisions. This feature of the RBI Act has always been present. Many people in the Indian discourse have loose...

Bye-bye, cyclical recovery.
CHILE · Report · 30 Oct 2018

The Central Bank has raised the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) to 2.75%, after keeping it at 2.5% for 17 months. The Bank will likely raise the TPM another 25 bp in the next RPM in December. More importantly, the Bank says that, under the base scenario, it will bring the TPM to at least 4% by 2020. ...

AMLO unveiled by the cancellation of Mexico's City new airport
MEXICO · In Brief · 29 Oct 2018

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), announced today that the construction of Mexico City’s new airport will be cancelled. AMLO has unveiled his personal priorities and it is clear he’ll choose political gain over economic stability. Markets reacted negatively not only due to the importance of thi...

Tough macroeconomic adjustment is supported by IMF program, while more severe stagflation raises political uncertainty
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 29 Oct 2018

From the second week of August until the end of September, Argentina suffered its second currency crisis of the year, with the peso depreciating from 28 to 42 pesos to the dollar. The first currency crisis had happened at the beginning of May, and lasted until the end of June, when the price of t...

Panama: The Presidential race is on
PANAMA · In Brief · 29 Oct 2018

This Sunday, two parties held their primaries: the incumbent Panameñista Party and the hard-liner leftist Frente Amplio por la Democracia (FAD). The major of Panama City, José I. Blandón defeated by an ample margin (56.7% vs. 38.1 %) his main opponent, Mario Etchelecu (former Minister of Housing)...

Economics: Risks of federal government overhaul
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2018

A recent proposal by the next governing party’s leader in the Chamber of Deputies to amend the Organic Law of Federal Public Administration included many changes that had been expected and clarified some of the mechanisms for achieving objectives that had already been announced. But it and other ...

Politics: Implications of the new reform proposal
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2018 · 1 response

A reform proposal advanced last week by the head of the Morena caucus in the Chamber of Deputies would significantly modify the federal government’s structure and mode of functioning, concentrating power, budget and authority in the hands of the President of the Republic, as various major governm...

Monetary Policy: No surprises for now
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Oct 2018

At the next COPOM meeting the Central Bank should keep the SELIC rate at 6.5%, with the communiqué and minutes repeating two warnings that have been expressed repeatedly. The first refers to the changes that have been occurring in the international scenario, which is not as favorable as it was un...

The success of international events in the midst of disaster recovery
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Oct 2018

In the month of September 2018, disasters hit the area of Central Sulawesi, especially in Palu, Donggala and Sigi. A huge earthquake created deadly tsunamis and flooding, which especially hit Palu just shortly after the earthquake. That earthquake followed another large earthquake that hit Lombok...

Russia supports Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi issue
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2018

The Russian Government has backed Saudi Arabia's version of events with relation to the death of Jamal Khashoggi. Dmitry Peskov said that no one has any reason to doubt the explanation of the Saudi Arabian Government. No other country outside the Middle East has offered such support. Peskov is Pr...

Brazil presidential election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Oct 2018 · 3 responses

Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) was elected President of the Republic with 55.13% of the valid votes and impeded the fifth consecutive victory of the PT. Bolsonaro had 10.26% percentage points more than in the first round. Fernando Haddad (PT) had 44.87% of valid votes. It is the worst performance of the Wo...

FDI keeps flowing in
CHINA · Report · 29 Oct 2018

Growth slowed in Q3, though it remained in a stable zone, with GDP expanding 6.5% y/y, down 0.3 pps from H1. Although the most uncertain factor is the U.S.-China trade war, trade is booming: in Q3, exports were up 10.3% y/y, and up 7 pps from Q2. Imports were up 19% y/y, up 8 pps from Q2. Trade a...

The tightening labor market and weaker shekel (if it continues) are rate hike supportive
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Oct 2018

The labor market continues to tighten, with job vacancies up, supportive of wage/inflationary pressure. Israeli savings institutions were net purchasers of 0.5bn USD in August, slowing from 1.1bn in July. Our inflation forecast stands at 1.1% in 2019, with the main risk coming from a weaker shek...

President Ramaphosa celebrates Investment Summit positive outcomes
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Oct 2018

Investment and economic growth are interconnected, with higher investment proven to lead to higher growth. The inverse is also true, countries that have low investment levels are slow to grow, and even stagnate, leading to poor quality of life in general. The South African economy is no different...

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