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Economics: 1Q public finance tops official forecast
MEXICO · Report · 29 May 2018

Public finance results for the first quarter were in keeping with budget and finance ministry targets, but also provide evidence of an extension toward the troubling trend of rising spending, mounting public deficits and a multi-year trend toward sacrificing physical public investment. While it ...

A strike of mistakes, multiple losers and a single winner, and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 May 2018

The truckers’ strike continues to have repercussions. New rounds of negotiations are expected. This will be the main item on the agenda in the Lower House and Senate. The government drafted a provisional measure that regulates minimum pricing for roadway cargo transport. The Planalto is negotiat...

COSTA RICA: Inauguration dreams versus fiscal realities
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 May 2018

Carlos Alvarado of the Citizens Action Party was sworn in as president of Costa Rica on May 8th, and immediately sent a clear message about the need to solve the government’s fiscal problem. The challenge is complicated, though, not only by the size of the central government’s deficit, estimated ...

Politics: Little change after the second debate
MEXICO · Report · 29 May 2018

The second presidential candidates’ debate also drew a record audience and produced much better performances by all three major candidates but no clear winner. Jóse Antonio Meade of the PRI-led coalition offered by far his best showing of the campaign, Ricardo Anaya once again was the best prepar...

Truckers’ strike continues amid rising suspicions of political involvement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2018

Despite the new concessions announced by President Michel Temer this Sunday (27), the truckers’ strike continues in many cities throughout the country. The situation is very delicate, despite the fact that some roadways have been cleared. The National Association of Fuel Distributors, Lubrican...

Of deficits and rising risks
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 28 May 2018

Amidst buoyant global growth, the domestic economy expanded strongly at the start of 2018 boosted by particularly vigorous public spending. Despite this, the local mood especially in financial markets is less than jubilant. While we think the economy’s fundamentals quite solid as affirmed by S&P...

A stronger shekel supports lower inflation and will postpone tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 28 May 2018

The shekel has appreciated by 2.7% so far this month, which is supportive of lower inflation and rate hike postponement. The labor market remains tight with job vacancies up and job seekers down. Consumption of services remains robust while consumption of goods (domestically) has softened. Pol...

The truckers’ strike
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 May 2018 · 1 response

​As if the shift in the international scenario were not enough, marked by appreciation of the dollar leading to relative depreciation of emerging countries’ currencies, Brazil has now been hit by a trucker strike, with severe repercussions on the economy and politics. The international price of o...

What happened on May 27?
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 May 2018

The most amazing thing about this presidential election was that results were crystal clear one hour after voting time was up. The second one was a clear differentiation between winners and losers, that we show in Table 1.​ Turnout at 53% was impressive by Colombian standards (see Figure 1), s...

CBRT simplifies monetary policy
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 May 2018 · 1 response

The CBRT has made public today what was promised at a closed-door meeting with bankers last night, and simplified the monetary policy framework. In a short announcement, the CBRT said that one-week repo rate will be the policy rate, which will be equal to the current funding rate (of 16.50%), and...

Some useful good news on fiscal policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 May 2018

Just as the MNB seems in a little bit of a trap, as the European cycle, EURUSD, EU matters and emerging market assets are moving in the wrong direction, there seem to be two pieces of good news just having come up on domestic fundamentals, and more accurately on fiscal policy.First, the governmen...

New storms approaching
TURKEY · Report · 27 May 2018 · 1 response

In this week’s report, the Political Analyst and his Doppelganger Cosmic Strategist joined forces to place upcoming events in a market perspective, saving detailed analysis of political fundamentals for the Monthly Report we plan to publish during the week. We argue that the current calm in th...

Macroeconomic outook
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 25 May 2018

Questions of fiscal stability and growth are key as the country heads into a presidential election.

Trade war truce resolves growth uncertainties
CHINA · Report · 25 May 2018

Growth data was mixed in April. The value added for industrial firms was up 7% y/y, up 0.2 pps from Q1 and up 0.8 pps from Q4 2017. Fixed asset investment was up 6.1% y/y, down 1.4 pps from Q1, although still higher than in Q3 2017. Specifically, private investment was up 7.5% y/y, down 1.4 pps f...

The NBU keeps prime rate flat amid concerns on EM currencies
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 May 2018

On May 24 the NBU left prime rate unchanged at 17.0%. Easing inflation and hryvnia stability are the main reasons behind this decision. The press-release also mentions substantial easing of May inflation according to the NBU estimates. The NBU has provisional data on inflation and we should treat...

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