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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of August 8
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2016

This week the Senate decides if it will proceed with the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. The day after the decision, the president will release an open letter to Senators .In the House, the floor will attempt to vote on the bill on state debt with the federal government. The case calling...

The Good News
INDIA · Report · 08 Aug 2016

The 122nd Amendment to the Constitution, which is essential to the GST (Goods and Services Tax), was approved in the Upper House (where the BJP does not have a majority). This is an important milestone in terms of politics. When the BJP was in opposition, it ran a scorched earth policy, blocki...

Beijing must implement balance-sheet reforms
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Aug 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Forecasting GDP growth in China over the rest of 2016 is a fairly meaningless exercise, not because there is too much economic uncertainty for an accurate forecast but rather because growth will be determined as the outcome of a political exercise b...

End of the Recession and Perspectives for Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Aug 2016

If the end of a recession is defined as the moment when GDP stops contracting, then it is highly likely that the current recession will end in the third quarter this year, after completing 9 quarters. This is what our leading indicator portends, supported by the latest numbers on industrial produ...

Great Expectations
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 08 Aug 2016

From a little known local politician this time last year, the one-month-old President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, now holds the record for the highest start-of-term level of public trust. He and his team have hit the ground running, exuding an air of impatience, no doubt intending to tr...

Depression and inflation but no default
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 08 Aug 2016 · 1 response

In our central scenario, we forecast that, in 2016–2017, Venezuela’s economy will continue to shrink and that inflation will stay in the triple digits. Helped by recovering oil prices, however, the pace of contraction will slow down in the second half of 2016 and even more so in 2017. Despite the...

More Uncertainty Over the Yuan
CHINA · Forecast · 08 Aug 2016

There’s downward pressure on growth, though we also expect growth rates to stabilize. GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, flat on Q1. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y. Though growth was 0.3 pps faster than in Q1, the recovery is weak. Retail sales of social consumption goods rose 10.2% y/y in nominal t...

Turkey’s Western dilemma
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2016

Even though GlobalSource Partners Turkey is officially “on vacation”, we will continue to update our readers on important upcoming events. As far as my brief (Politics) is concerned, developments in the domestic arena are proceeding largely according to the main scenario outlined in our latest Qu...

Housing prices likely to drift higher next year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Aug 2016

Recent economic indicators point to weak growth of 1.5% SAAR in Q216 (our estimate). Merchandise exports declined while imports increased. Private consumption indicators remain robust but slower than in Q116. Both chain store sales (3.9% SAAR) and debit card purchases (7%) up in Q216. Consumer co...

The forint may be too strong from the competitiveness point of view at EURHUF 311
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Aug 2016

As it happened, the forint, which started July trading in the EURHUF 316-318 range, appreciated in the second half of the month to EURHUF 310-312 and has been hanging around that level since then. Given the big external income surplus, such an appreciating trend may easily develop whenever the MN...

PPK’s Mandate Starts Vigorously
PERU · Report · 05 Aug 2016

President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, widely known as PPK, was sworn in on July 28th, though with a Congress comfortably dominated by the party of his losing opponent, Keiko Fujimori. Kuczynski used his inaugural speech to present his vision of a modern Peru, vowing to rekindle growth, and produce a “...

South African Local Elections: Preliminary Results & Potential Consequences
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 05 Aug 2016

Over the past 48 hours, SA Local Government (Municipal) Elections (LGE 2016) results have been taking shape gradually and systemically. The country's Independent Electoral Commission(IEC) conducted its largest election exercise since 1994 within a fairly professional, tightly secure, and totally ...

Guillermo Lasso and the Ecuadorian Debt
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Aug 2016

Some of our clients have expressed their concern regarding recent statements from Presidential Candidate Guillermo Lasso regarding his intention of "reviewing all foreign debt issued under this government".The statement is surprising coming from a former banker who truly understands the rules of ...

Colombia in Plebiscite Mode
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Aug 2016 · 1 response

Peace, or better said, the end of the conflict, seems to be near. Rumor has it that a peace deal might be signed in Havana before the end of the month. However, in order to meet this deadline there has also been talk of maintaining peace negotiations after a deal is signed. Namely, a deal would b...

COSTA RICA: The Central Bank Revises Its Macroeconomic Program for 2016-2017
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Aug 2016

As prescribed by law, the Central Bank announced the revision of its macroeconomic program for 2016-2017. We consider the Bank´s view relatively optimistic compared with the view presented in our July 28 Monthly Report, especially for 2017.

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