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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The hawks are out
CHILE · Report · 19 Sep 2018

The Central Bank’s September Monetary Policy Report (IPOM) was surprisingly hawkish. It stated that the upward cycle would begin “in coming months,” implying in either mid-October or early December. The Bank’s base scenario is that the monetary policy interest rate will be between 4% and 4.5% dur...

Yes, but what the hell did the MNB do yesterday?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Sep 2018

Analyst views on what exactly the MNB did yesterday seem to differ significantly, depending on who one is talking to. This is not necessarily the fault of respondents, but much more the problem of the significantly overburdened and not entirely coherent system of policy tools maintained by the MN...

Ibope reinforces trend of a Bolsonaro vs. Haddad runoff
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2018

The Ibope poll released yesterday, September 18, shows that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) is firmly in the lead in the presidential race and that Fernando Haddad has taken second place. As expected, the PT candidate has attracted support by exploiting his ties to former President Lula.

GDP sped up to 3.8% y/y in 2Q 2018, updated statistics
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Sep 2018

State statistics office reported a 3.8% y/y GDP increase in 2Q 2018. Provisional estimate was +3.6% y/y. Thus in 1H 2018 GDP sped up to 3.5% y/y vs. 2.7% y/y in 1H 2017. In 2Q 2018 private consumption and investments in fixed assets slowed but remained strong. In particular, private consumption i...

Draft budget 2019: No gas prices increase included
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Sep 2018

Yesterday, on September 17 details of draft budget 2019 have been released. Spending plan was suggested unusually modest as for the election year: spending increased only 10.4% y/y. However, for some reason housing subsidies have been cut down to UAH 55.1 billion vs. UAH 77.1 billion envisaged fo...

Following the right path, albeit too slowly
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Sep 2018

Ecuador is one of the countries facing a humanitarian crisis of large proportions brought on by the massive exodus of millions of Venezuelans escaping from heart-breaking living conditions. Last week, President Moreno, represented by Minister of Foreign Affairs Jose Valencia, led an international...

China’s highly distorted private equity funding
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Sep 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Economists usually try to evaluate a country’s debt position according to various debt ratios, but what often matters even more is how institutional distortions affect debt dynamics. China’s financial system is locked into a process in which excessiv...

With ample support Laurentino Cortizo won the primaries of the PRD Party
PANAMA · In Brief · 17 Sep 2018

Laurentino Cortizo (Nito) was elected presidential candidate of the PRD for the May 2019 elections in Sunday’s primaries. Several key issues are relevant for the future: (1) The participation of the party members was higher than expectations (60.5% of the affiliated members, or more than three hu...

Politics: Initial signs of strain in the AMLO coalition
MEXICO · Report · 17 Sep 2018 · 1 response

We are still roughly two and a half months away from President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador's taking office and yet the last two weeks have provided all-too-early signs of the predictable fragility of a coalition that includes people drawn from even the farthest corners of the political spec...

Economics: Addressing more than minimum wages
MEXICO · Report · 17 Sep 2018

Perhaps the labor-related issue that then-presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador spoke about the most on the campaign trail was his promise to significantly raise federally mandated minimum wage levels. He had no monopoly on the idea as even his center-right rival, Ricardo Anaya, made...

Credit upgrade to BBB is not happening yet
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Sep 2018

In August, both Fitch and S&P failed to upgrade the government from BBB-/Positive in their pre-announced review dates, in line with market expectation but contrary to the hopes of high-ranking officials in Hungary. We think that no upgrade from a major agency is likely any time soon, especially b...

Profile of the supporters of each candidate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Sep 2018

The deadline to replace candidates in the upcoming elections is Monday, September 17. New national and state-level polls will be released. Three debates are scheduled: Poder360/Piauí magazine, Veja magazine and TV Aparecida. In the economy, we highlight the GDP preview (IBC-Br) and the Central Ba...

Lower-than-expected inflation and shekel appreciation are likely to postpone tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Sep 2018

The most recent policy rate statement signaled a slightly more hawkish stance, noting the beginning of inflation entrenchment within target. Meanwhile, PC indicators point to slowing household demand for domestic goods. The shekel has appreciated since the rate decision, which is likely to make a...

Drama in IL&FS and its implications
INDIA · Report · 17 Sep 2018

IL&FS is a financial/infrastructure conglomerate with a consolidated balance sheet of about Rs.1 trillion. Reflecting the difficulties of the economy and the financial system, this firm has been under credit stress for many years. Some of its subsidiaries recently defaulted. This could potentiall...

The disappointing real retail sales and consumption numbers
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Sep 2018

One of the hopes for stronger recovery in 2018 was the acceleration of household consumption in 2017. More specifically, the hope was that the combination of lower real interest rates and reduced household debt service ratios would lead to maintenance, or even elevation, of the quarterly growth r...

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