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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Initial signs of strain in the AMLO coalition
MEXICO · Report · 17 Sep 2018 · 1 response

We are still roughly two and a half months away from President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador's taking office and yet the last two weeks have provided all-too-early signs of the predictable fragility of a coalition that includes people drawn from even the farthest corners of the political spec...

Economics: Addressing more than minimum wages
MEXICO · Report · 17 Sep 2018

Perhaps the labor-related issue that then-presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador spoke about the most on the campaign trail was his promise to significantly raise federally mandated minimum wage levels. He had no monopoly on the idea as even his center-right rival, Ricardo Anaya, made...

Credit upgrade to BBB is not happening yet
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Sep 2018

In August, both Fitch and S&P failed to upgrade the government from BBB-/Positive in their pre-announced review dates, in line with market expectation but contrary to the hopes of high-ranking officials in Hungary. We think that no upgrade from a major agency is likely any time soon, especially b...

Profile of the supporters of each candidate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Sep 2018

The deadline to replace candidates in the upcoming elections is Monday, September 17. New national and state-level polls will be released. Three debates are scheduled: Poder360/Piauí magazine, Veja magazine and TV Aparecida. In the economy, we highlight the GDP preview (IBC-Br) and the Central Ba...

Lower-than-expected inflation and shekel appreciation are likely to postpone tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Sep 2018

The most recent policy rate statement signaled a slightly more hawkish stance, noting the beginning of inflation entrenchment within target. Meanwhile, PC indicators point to slowing household demand for domestic goods. The shekel has appreciated since the rate decision, which is likely to make a...

Drama in IL&FS and its implications
INDIA · Report · 17 Sep 2018

IL&FS is a financial/infrastructure conglomerate with a consolidated balance sheet of about Rs.1 trillion. Reflecting the difficulties of the economy and the financial system, this firm has been under credit stress for many years. Some of its subsidiaries recently defaulted. This could potentiall...

The disappointing real retail sales and consumption numbers
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Sep 2018

One of the hopes for stronger recovery in 2018 was the acceleration of household consumption in 2017. More specifically, the hope was that the combination of lower real interest rates and reduced household debt service ratios would lead to maintenance, or even elevation, of the quarterly growth r...

In stable, but critical condition
TURKEY · Report · 16 Sep 2018

Turkey breathed a sigh of collective relief, as pressure from Turkey and the international community forced Assad to back off from an assault on Idlib City and the CBRT, contrary to consensus, over-delivered. Yet, this is most likely only a brief respite, before even more daunting contests of wil...

Saving and raising
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2018

United Russia predictably won most regional elections in dozens of Russian federal entities due to severely limited competition as most opposition candidates were not given a chance to participate. Despite landslide victories in the largest and most important ones, United Russia supported candida...

Datafolha: Bolsonaro leads; Ciro and Haddad fight for Lula’s supporters
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2018

A new poll released yesterday(September 14) by Datafolha presents important information: * Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) is on a trajectory of growth. While he made gains within the margin of error (two percentage points), compared to late August, he gained four points and has practically secured a spot ...

China’s debt-strapped consumer
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Sep 2018

Chinese consumption has been a major contributor to China’s GDP, adding an estimated 60% to GDP growth. In addition, the government increasingly has been turning to private capital, including savings from private citizens, to pay for infrastructure and other stimulus projects through bond sales, ...

A new battle cry
PERU · Report · 14 Sep 2018

The short-lived calm after Martín Vizcarra’s assumption of the presidency was shattered by the president’s bold July 28th Independence Day speech, in which he proposed controversial reforms to address the major ongoing judicial scandal. The president’s proposals include change in the political re...

Joy of a Victory: Ukraine Wins London Court Appeal on “Russian Bonds”
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Sep 2018

So, London judges finally recognized that politics was important part of a $3 billion deal between ex-president Victor Yanukovitch and Russian authorities. For Ukraine that’s a critical turning point in all disputes about Russian aggression and damages that Russian military intervention created. ...

Replacement of candidates
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2018

Due to the delicate recovery process faced by presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), Arko Advice has been frequently questioned about the possible consequences of a candidate’s death on the electoral race. Before we provide any answers, we would like to make it clear that we are hoping for ...

MPC: Back from the brink, again…
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Sep 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the policy rate (weekly-repo) by a markedly higher than expected 625 bps to 24% at today’s meeting, from 17.75% earlier. As all funding was being provided at the O/N rate of 19.25%, the move corresponds to a 475 bps hike, de facto, assuming all funding will no...

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