NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

​MPC Preview: Between a Rock and a Hard Place
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Jul 2016

Today’s decision will arguably be one of the most critical and difficult ones for the MPC, which is stuck between a rock (politicians’ wrath) and a hard place (fundamentals). So will the MPC be compelled to pause (after a cumulative 175 bps cut of the O/N lending rate) or will it deliver another ...

Week of July 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2016

A relatively quiet week due to the “white recess” in Congress, which will resume activity in August. The municipal elections definitively enter the agenda with the beginning of party conventions to choose candidates and coalitions. We highlight the first meeting of the Copom to set the benchmark ...

Recession’s Ending Signals and Start of a Slow Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jul 2016

A large number of signs indicate that the current recession is reaching its end. The confidence indicators stopped falling at the end of last year, and since the first few months this year have been rebounding somewhat, with optimism accentuating due to the quality of the new economic team. But t...

​Growth revised upwards in Q116, PMI declines in June
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jul 2016

GDP growth in Q116 was revised to 1.7% SAAR from 1.3% in the previous estimate. The main revision was export growth which currently reflects expansion of 1.6%, up from the 1.1% contraction in the second revision. This was mostly due to the updated CBS survey of service exports, conducted once a y...

Week of July 17
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jul 2016 · 1 response

The coup attempt has been put down, leaving behind several unanswered questions. Aftershocks from the disgruntled members of the military are still a possibility, but we are more concerned about new terror attacks by PKK and ISIS. More broadly, Turkey’s future will be determined by the path th...

Coup is over, the fall-out is just starting
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Jul 2016

I’m trying to write this brief while shuttling back and forth between 6 TV channels and 10 news websites I find more or less reliable, because the rest of the media depicts events with a heavy AKP tilt. All of the analysis is provisional and will be refreshed, as event gain more clarity. Even tho...

​Coup attempt almost dealt with
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

Turkey came to the brink of a military coup on Friday night, but limited reporting on still on-the-air TV channels (two opposition ones are off the air) suggest the troops loyal to the government and police are about to deal with the rebels. Yet, it is not over. A few minutes ago I watched an F-1...

President Elect Pedro Pablo Kuczinski Reveals Names of Cabinet Members
PERU · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

President of Cabinet, Fernando Zavala Foreign Affairs, 
Ricardo Luna Mendoza Defense, Mariano González Fernández
 Finance, Alfredo Thorne Interior, 
Carlos Basombrío Education, Jaime Saavedra Health, Patricia García Funegra Labor, Alfonso Grados Carraro Agriculture, José Manuel Hernández Calderon...

​Coup attempt in Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

A few minutes after midnight Turkish time, a military entity calling itself “The National Peace Council” declared over the state-owned TRT TV that it has taken control over the government of the country. This is clearly a coup attempt, but I am still in the dark whether it has the full support of...

Improving the Context
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2016

One of Russia’s most progressive governors was publicly arrested based on corruption accusations in what was in fact a conflict between several security services and the Presidential Administration clans. The carefully planned, staged and publicized arrest shows that the rules of the game have ch...

Co-government or militaristic transition?
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2016 · 1 response

General Vladimir Padrino Lopez openly joined the political game. In addition to his role as leader of the Bolivarian National Armed Force (FANB) and defense minister, he was appointed Chief of the Great Civic-Military Mission for Sovereign and Secure Supplies by President Maduro, a sort of chief ...

No inflation surprises in June, but housing prices troubling
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

Inflation in June reached 0.3% m-o-m and -0.8% y-o-y (similar to last month). Inflation was in line with consensus and our forecast. Inflation was influenced by a 2.8% increase in petrol prices (m-o-m) and a seasonal increase in clothing prices (8.3% m-o-m, 1.3% y-o-y). Food prices declined 1.7% ...

Belling the cat (now what?)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

Barely two weeks into office, the administration of Rodrigo Duterte was handed a legal victory that it did not ask for and (probably) does not need. The award, issued by the UN-backed Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, is seen by analysts as a sweeping win for the Philippines against Ch...

Politics: Murder Rate Rebounds to Peak Levels
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2016

The May report from the National System of Public Security (SNSP) confirmed a murder rate growth trend dating back to the beginning of 2015 and a return to levels of four year ago at the peak of the government’s war on organized crime. Four northern states – Baja California, Chihuahua, Tamauli...

Government evaluation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2016

President Michel Temer once again imposed his will on the Legislative with the victory of Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ) in the election for the presidency of the House of Representatives, his most important victory since the impeachment vote in the House that removed Dilma Rousseff. Maia obtained 285 vo...