GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Executive Summary While the Turkish press is full of reports that an AKP-MHP coalition is imminent, statements by MHP leader Bahceli cause us to exercise much caution. An AKP-CHP coalition is also not too feasible, judging by the statements made by party spokespersons. Early elections still comma...

Ukraine to keep paying on debts, Jaresko said

UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jun 2015

On June 22nd Ukraine will pay $73.3 million of interest to Russia on $3 billion Eurobonds, Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said today during briefing. In fact, this payment was the main intrigue after the IMF agreed to finance Ukraine disregard potential problems with debt servicing. As we wrote...

Stock Market Boom Amid a Down Economy

CHINA · Report · 19 Jun 2015

Executive Summary We believe the growth slowdown has already bottomed out, and think growth will slowly rebound from here. Fixed asset investment rose 10% y/y in May, up 0.6 pps from April, while value added for major industrial firms rose 6.1% y/y, up 0.5 pps from its lowest level in March. Reta...

Will Mr. Roxas run?

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Jun 2015

In past weeks, a number of aspiring Presidential candidates have visibly stepped up their game in apparent efforts to influence survey numbers. Today, one of the leading pollsters, Pulse Asia, released the results of its much-awaited June 2015 survey showing very interesting results to the questi...

Economics: Snapshot by State

MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2015

Executive Summary The economies of each of Mexico’s 32 states developed in 2014 in a context of moderate GDP growth nationally, as the country’s GDP expanded by a mere 2.1%, which at least marked an improvement over its 2013 performance. The main drivers of the national economy last year were man...

Politics: Congressional Election Results

MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Although the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) experienced a net loss of votes compared to past elections and obtained only 29.2% of the vote, that proved to be enough to win 176, or slightly more than 60% of the 300 single member, relative majority districts. Th...

Bahceli shuts the door to AKP and CHP

TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Jun 2015

In Turkey’s political pundit community I am be alone in relying almost exclusively on public statements by party authorities, while others prefer divining ulterior motives and listening to Ankara rumors. According to my unique method, early elections suddenly came to outrank both AKP and CHP led ...

Fiscal Adjustment

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2015

TCU will postpone trial of government accounts The TCU (Federal Court of Accounts) will wait one month for President Dilma Rousseff to provide clarification in writing on the accounting maneuvers used to balance her government accounts in 2014. Only after this formality is completed will the cour...

Confidence under Strain

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jun 2015

Despite some outbursts of optimism, confidence among businesses and consumers in the South African economy remains by and large depressed. On a combined basis, this has largely been the case since 2012. Under this regime, growth prospects for South Africa are uninspiring. The prevailing state of ...

TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jun 2015

Once again I want to use the opportunity of astute questions asked by a reader to share my views with the entire readership. As usual the name of the inquirer shall remain anonymous. · Can the president block formation of a non-AKP minority government easily, even if AKP does not have enough vote...

Week of June 15

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2015

Another important week for the fiscal austerity effort. President Dilma sanctions MPs 664 and 665, which make changes to labor rights. There may be questioning in the STF. In the House, the government tries for a vote on the bill that deals with payroll tax exemptions. The TCU analyzes government...

Constitutional amendment definitively approved. Re-election allowed.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 15 Jun 2015

In a second and definitive vote, last Friday the National Assembly approved to amend the Constitution. The amendment allows an incumbent President to be nominated for a second term and forbids him/her to run for President again ever. In a formal ceremony that took place on Saturday, the Assembly ...

The Monetary Tightening Continues

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jun 2015

In the minutes of the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank once again signaled that the cycle of raising the SELIC rate would continue. Although acknowledging the weakening of the labor market and deceleration of economic activity, concern over the strong inflation in recent months prompted the a...

I have waited so long

CHILE · Report · 15 Jun 2015

Executive summary How long are we going to wait for economic activity to go up, inflation to go down, and the Central Bank to start normalizing rates? The latest National Accounts show the economy on a seeming acceleration path. Even though this is good news, there are a few caveats to take...

Weekly Tracker: June 14-20

TURKEY · Report · 14 Jun 2015

Executive Summary An air of unreality surrounds the nation, with pundits trying to convince us that coalition formation would be easy, as parties shut the door to any compromise. Unless reality sets in and each party makes very unpleasant sacrifices, early elections are more likely. We shall get ...