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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economy Rebounds, As Political Tension Mounts
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Mar 2017

January economic numbers were surprisingly positive. Industrial output expanded +5.6% y/y, up from +4.6% y/y in December. The CAD narrowed to a modest $26 million, driven by a 41% y/y surge in exports. The currency stabilized at UAH 27/dollar. In short, the economy is showing strong signs of a re...

Raqqa conundrum could add to diplomatic tensions
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2017

The Trump administration is yet to make an official pronouncement as to which partner it will choose to liberate ISIS capital Raqqa with. Yet, sullen statements from Turkish authorities and facts on the ground suggest that the decision has been made in favor of YPG, Turkey's Kurdish rival with fi...

GDP Contracts in the Last Quarter of 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Mar 2017

On a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualized basis, GDP in the last quarter of 2016 contracted by 0.3% (Graph 1). This was the second time the South African economy contracted on a quarterly basis in 2016 - a year that saw the country’s economy laboring under headwinds emanating fr...

Some bad news on the budget, after a previous series of good news
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2017

The planned Paks-2 nuclear power plant finally passed all licensing hurdles in Brussels the other day. This means that the implementation of the EUR12bn project is going to start already this year. The aim of the project is to build two new 1200MW reactors by 2026, in a great part to replace the ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Mar 2017

As the contents of the plea bargains reached with Odebrecht executives become public, the political climate will become tenser, with possible reflections on Brazilian asset prices. These prices have behaved favorably so far, based mainly on the hypothesis that Temer will complete his term and tha...

Week of March 6
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2017

President Michel Temer inaugurates the new Minister of Justice, Osmar Serraglio, and Foreign Relations, Aloysio Nunes Ferreira. The prosecutor general of the Republic, Rodrigo Janot, may ask the STF to open a case against politicians. The Senate may vote on the bill on repatriation. The Lower Hou...

Regional Labor Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Mar 2017

The average unemployment rate has been rising, but with important regional differences, which we will discuss in this note. Since the later part of 2016, the growth of the unemployment rate in Brazil has been predominantly explained by the rise of the participation rate (more people looking f...

Political tension escalates on authorities’ attempts to release Chief tax collector
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Mar 2017

The case with Nasirov has all chances to become a trigger for new mass protests. Ukrainians are tired with painful reforms and are extremely irritated with pervasive corruption. Previously, the authorities addressed people to tolerate painful measures for the sake of better future. Demanding peop...

Biding Our Time, But For What?
TURKEY · Report · 05 Mar 2017

The politics author is concerned that Turkey is becoming a dysfunctional party state. A vicious cycle of crackdowns and oppression infuriating the broader segments of the society is inevitable unless President Erdogan faces the bitter reality of long-term stagnation. We still have hope that he mi...

More on Mr. Orbán's fiscal trick
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2017

Fixed investment growth in Q4 2016 was a rather unimpressive +0.4% qoq, -24.1% yoy, implying exactly a 20% real-terms drop in the whole of last year. Incoming net EU transfers, by BOP, reached only 2.1% of GDP in 2016, sharply down from 6% of GDP in 2015. Finally, bank deposits held by non-financ...

Medina’s Popularity Sinks Amid Corruption Scandals
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 03 Mar 2017

The most awaited and reputable poll in the country has confirmed what many suspected: that President Danilo Medina's approval ratings have plummeted, with the public pointing fingers at the biggest political parties and several prominent political figures over corruption, and illegal enrichment o...

Weak Economy Ain’t No Fix For Inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2017

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 0.8% in February, raising the 12-month rate to 10.1%, up from 9.2% in January. The increase was broad-based with several categories seeing price increases higher than the same period of last year. Producer prices, reflecting the simultaneous cost-pus...

National anti-corruption bureau arrests Head of State fiscal service
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2017

Media reports that National anti-corruption bureau arrested Head of State fiscal service, Roman Nasirov. Poor details are available but it looks like the arrest is formally related to investigation of operations of former MP Oleksandr Onishchenko who escaped Ukraine in summer 2016. What are the r...

Confirming the Export Turn-Around
INDONESIA · Report · 02 Mar 2017

In my previous report, I highlighted the turn-around in the export sector based on the preliminary data. The latest data on exports further confirmed the turn-around, which provides broad space for improvement in the overall economy. The rise of China as the number one export destination in the l...

Muted response to USA, no change in policy
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Mar 2017

Venezuela’s response to U.S. accusations and sanctions against Vice President El Aissami has been unusually restrained. The regime and opposition alike seem to be waiting for clearer signals regarding the Trump administration’s stance toward Venezuela. International pressure might push the reg...

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