GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Special points to highlight in this issue:Just as the development of China's banking system after the reforms of the 1980s was necessarily consistent with the institutions that governed its distribution of political power, expected changes in the institutions that will govern the distribution of ...

Medina beats Fernández: reelection bid at full speed

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 28 May 2015

Today an agreement reached between former President Leonel Fernández and President Danilo Medina put a dramatic end to the severe crisis of the Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD) which was in the verge of a division. The agreement paved the way to get approved a Constitutional amendment wh...

Russia to the rescue?

VENEZUELA · In Brief · 28 May 2015

The news that Russia plans to invest $14 billion in the Venezuelan oil industry comes in the wake of several visits to Russia by Venezuelan government officials trying to prop up relations with Russia. We have no indications of specific advances in this field. In our view, it’s a generic announce...

Disappointing

PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 May 2015

Even though we were poised to cut our 6.7% full-year GDP growth forecast, we were as surprised as anyone by the mediocre 5.2% 1Q15 performance of the economy. The announcement at once sent the main stock index down 1.6% in morning trade. Indeed, one can hardly miss the tone of disappointment in t...

Growth Rebound in the Cards

INDONESIA · Report · 28 May 2015

Executive Summary Growth was even lower than expected in Q1, dropping below 5% for the first time in years -- though, interestingly, business confidence is holding steady. So we may see a bit of recovery in H2. Annualized growth in Q1 was 4.71%, vs. 5.01% in Q4 2014. Low Q1 growth was expec...

Politics: A Tale of Two Key Electoral Contests

MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2015

Executive Summary Of all the states in which local elections will be held June 7, those in Nuevo León and the nation's capital have generated the most interest, and their outcomes are results that could have the greatest ramifications nationally. The contest in the northeastern state is important...

Fernández obstructs reelection; puts him in direct collision course with President Medina

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 27 May 2015

In a televised speech that caused great expectation and got record audience, former President Leonel Fernández objected current attempts to reform the Constitution in order to allow President Danilo Medina to run for reelection based on moral and legal grounds. Fernández recalled that at least in...

Economics: More Jobs but Pay Remains Weak

MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2015

Executive Summary The rate of growth in payroll employment has been twice that of the general economy since the second half of 2012. That outperformance reflected a significant migration of workers in the informal sector into formal sector jobs, but the first quarter of 2015 saw growth in both fo...

When the Going Gets Tough

COLOMBIA · Report · 26 May 2015

Executive SummaryThe Central Bank is facing an unusual dilemma (for Colombia), of having to deal simultaneously with high inflation and economic slowdown. At 4.64% in April, inflation is at its highest since May 2009, mostly due to soaring food prices, and to a weaker currency. Yet the Bank recen...

Battle at the Precipice of Default

UKRAINE · Report · 26 May 2015

Fortunately there was no further military escalation in Ukraine's eastern regions in May; the action was confined mainly to skirmishes and local clashes. Public attention was instead focused on government efforts at debt restructuring, on scandals over the personnel policy of the Cabinet and on r...

Week of May 26

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2015

A politically busy week in Brasília: The House tries to vote on political reform, and in the Senate, the fiscal austerity measures are the focus of the agenda. Mayors from across the country will meet in Brasília to discuss the federative pact, healthcare and education. On Friday, May 29, the IBG...

Perspectives for 2015: Recession and Political Costs

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 26 May 2015

Executive Summary The political costs of the fiscal adjustment and the measures to control inflation are being carried by a weakened government. The recession in 2015 and the outlook for very modest growth in 2016 have put the administration in the trap of having to undertake a more drastic fi...

Big Facts about the US Macroeconomic Environment and Implications for India

INDIA · Report · 26 May 2015

Using very long time series in the US, three important facts are: (a) an inflation target of 2%, which is successfully delivered by the US Fed; (b) bond returns of 2.7% and (c) equity premium of 3 percentage points.In the US, there is a fair understanding about these three numbers and confidence ...

A Sharp Slowdown in Q1 2015 GDP Growth

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 May 2015

According to Statistics South Africa's official figures released today, the inflation adjusted (real) gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a muted quarterly, seasonally adjusted and annualized rate of 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2015. This follows a notable improvement in the preced...

South Africa's Macroeconomic Challenges Deepen

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 26 May 2015

Today's Real GDP growth of 1.3% together with a material increase in the country's already high unemployment rate have worsened the macroeconomic outlook. The Minister of Finance was hoping for an annual rate of 2% for 2015, at this rate this budgeted figure is fading away fast. The Minister may ...