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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Snapshot of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

Brazil faces no problems of financing the balance of payments, nor is it involved in any geopolitical conflicts or trade embargos. What puts it in the group of nations experiencing the greatest depreciations is its fiscal/political risk.

New Finance Minister
PERU · In Brief · 07 Jun 2018

President Martin Villanueva has just announced that he has chosen Mr. Carlos Oliva as the new Minister of Finance. Mr. Oliva previously worked at this Ministry under Luis Miguel Castilla, who served as Finance Minister in the Humala Regime for three years, and as Vice Minister for the Budget (Hac...

MPC delivers more than expected
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jun 2018

At today's regular meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee hiked the one-week repo rate (policy rate) — and along with it all other rates — by 125 basis points (bps), which was notably higher than the market expectations of around 50 bps. In terms of the content of the statement, the CBRT ackno...

Parliament Dismissed Finance Minister
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Jun 2018

Finance Minister Oleksander Danylyuk was dismissed with 254 MP votes. It’s a big loss for the Cabinet, in my view. But probably there was no other way out after public scandal between Prime-Minister and Finance Minister – one of the two had to leave. Oksana Markarova will become acting Minister o...

Law on Anti-Corruption Court Approved: Compromise Version
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Jun 2018

Parliament approved law on anti-corruption court (ACC) with 315 votes. Parliamentary commission today agreed upon a compromise role for international experts. Anti-corruption activists provisionally positively evaluated this version of legislation. According to Anti-Corruption Action Center, deci...

Fuel prices may turn inflation reports upside down in May and June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2018

CPI-inflation figures for May are due on Friday this week. We used to predict 0.3% mom, 2.4% yoy, the latter up slightly from 2.3% yoy in April. But we do not do so any more, given a 5.3% mom jump by the wholesale prices of motor fuels, recorded in May, which was caused mainly by the strengthenin...

The RBI hikes the policy rate
INDIA · Report · 06 Jun 2018

​The Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI hiked the policy repo rate by 0.25 bps to 6.25%, voting 6-0 in favor of the rate hike. Today’s monetary policy decision took place at a time when there is pressure on the rupee to depreciate, bond yields are rising, EMs have been witnessing capital outflo...

An additional push that might not be enough
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Jun 2018

The External Committee (EC) held its regular meeting on April 16th, where it established a new path for reducing the deficit of the National Central Government (NGC). The changes of the path that have been taking place since 2014, can be read in one of two ways. One, the fact that the fence of th...

South Africa’s GDP starts off another year with a contraction
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Jun 2018

​Just as we had anticipated and communicated in our previous report, South Africa’s GDP contracted in the first quarter of 2018. The annualized percentage change in the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP came in at -2.2% in the first quarter, following 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017. Besides t...

May inflation up; but lower than expected
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jun 2018

The headline inflation rate continued to inch up to 4.6% last month from 4.5% in April, due to a combination of higher food prices (including rice), oil-related services (particularly transport), and the impact of higher consumption taxes (particularly commodities subject to excise taxes, e.g., o...

Minister of Finance Resigns
PERU · In Brief · 04 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Minister of Finance David Tuesta resigned his post, apparently in protest for several conflicts with Prime Minister Villanueva and President Vizcarra regarding fiscal measures. Tuesta recently increased excise taxes on various products including fuels, tobacco, alcohol, sugared drinks, and automo...

The crisis leads to more questions in the MDB and the PSDB, and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2018

Two presidential polls will be released this week, a DataPoder360 poll on June 4, and an Ipespe poll on June 7. The PSDB launches its manifesto calling for unity in the political center around a single candidate. On Friday, June 8, IBGE releases inflation for May. In Congress, repercussions of Pe...

A mediocre recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Jun 2018

In the first quarter of 2018, GDP grew by only 0.4%, and it only takes a quick glance at the behavior of the most important components on the aggregate supply and demand sides to conclude that even without considering the effects of the truckers’ strike, growth in 2018 will be significantly less ...

May data, AMLO forecasts; Nestora, self-defense groups and crime
MEXICO · Report · 04 Jun 2018

Economic data released in May confirmed that the economy continued to grow at rates similar to those observed during the previous three quarters, but the 1.3% expansion of GDP during the first quarter of 2018 was well under half the 3.3% increase registered for the same quarter a year earlier. On...

Medina faces his first big political defeat
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 04 Jun 2018

President Danilo Medina is about to receive his first major political defeat. The effort to pass the bill on political parties most favorable to him (with open and simultaneous primaries) is failing. Medina could not get enough votes to pass the bill in the House. Nearly all the opposition, and t...

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