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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Under Odebrecht Headlines, Watch for Fiscal Issues
PANAMA · Report · 02 Mar 2017

Preliminary figures for 2016 show that the “adjusted” deficit of the NFPS was 1.5% of nominal GDP, at the ratio approved by the Fiscal Responsibility Law of 2007, as amended in 2012. (The revised deficit figure for 2015 was 2%). But the “true” deficit for 2016 was $1,350 million, or 2.5% of GDP, ...

Sentiments Flag Despite Growth, while Officials Remain Impassive as Death Toll Rises
MEXICO · Report · 01 Mar 2017

While news in February showed some aspects of the economy sustaining, and in some cases, improving on its pace of growth, market analysts continued to scale back their growth expectations at the same time as both producer and consumer sentiment further accelerated their descent. Uncertainty over ...

Q3 GDP at 7% despite demonetisation
INDIA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2017

India's GDP numbers for the Oct-Dec 2016 quarter released by the Central Statistical Office show that GDP grew by 7 percent. This appears to be at odds with almost everything experienced in the quarter that witnessed a withdrawal of 86 percent of Indian currency. One explanation for the high GDP ...

No policy change at today's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Feb 2017

The Monetary Council's regular monthly rate-setting meeting today brought about absolutely no policy change, just as we, and essentially everybody else, expected. The base rate and the interest rate corridor remain at 0.9% and -0.05% to 0.9%, respectively. The Council's communiqué was also largel...

Old Wine in New Bottles
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Feb 2017

The government’s new Colombia Repunta (Colombia Picks up) aggregates all of its short-term economic activity-boosting measures. As with previous packages, these are mostly existing initiatives. Though little is new, the government projects that the package will add 1.3 pp of GDP growth in 2017. T...

Political reshuffle knocks at the door
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2017

Over the recent weeks we observe intensified activity of political players. Many rumors are circulating. We do not have rigid facts about what is going on but from pieces of information we’ve compiled our version of events. So, trade blockade of eastern Donbas effectively destroyed fragile balanc...

Beware of Black Swans in Syria and military
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Feb 2017

This is a heads-up about potentially shocking news which might upset Turkey’s delicate relations with the White House abroad and the fragile equilibrium between AKP and the military at home. I predict that Trump’s new Syria plan will not enable Turkey to uproot Syrian Kurds from the Turkish borde...

Indicators Signal Good Prospects
CHINA · Report · 27 Feb 2017

Due to Chinese New Year, many statistics are still not available, making our analytical task more difficult. But one notable policy change is that monetary policy reversed its 2016 loosening trend, and shifted into tightening. We also expect this to be the trend for 2017. M1 rose 14.5% y/y, conti...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 26 Feb 2017

Referendum polls are incredibly tight. AKP is worried and will pour its immense resources into winning the presidential race. Chances of unrest in case of a rejection are rising. Ankara is picking up a fight with Iran. It is probably just a war of words, but there is possibility that the long-...

Uncertainty Is the Name of the Game
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Feb 2017

In the short term, uncertainty is the name of the game for Central America. The escalation of protectionism in developed countries is evidenced by recent events such as Brexit and the U.S. presidential elections, reinforced by rising populist movements in Europe in the runup to elections. The imp...

A delicate fiscal balancing act on the political tightrope
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Feb 2017 · 2 responses

​The 2017 Budget Speech was delivered in a politically fraught environment, with rumours rife about a possible Cabinet reshuffle, and the potential removal of either the Minister of Finance, Mr Pravin Gordhan, or the Deputy Minister, Mr Mcebisi Jonas (who had made damning public disclosures about...

Correa Directly Threatens Democracy
ECUADOR · In Brief · 23 Feb 2017

After admitting the fact of a second electoral round, President Correa´s behavior was quite erratic. First, he said he had no fears of the outcome on April 2 since Guillermo Lasso is the easiest candidate to defeat. But at the same time he threatened to apply the mechanism of “cross dead”. This m...

Economics: AMLO's Proposals Don't Add Up
MEXICO · Report · 23 Feb 2017

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has published what in principle is supposed to be part of his governing program should he be elected president of Mexico next year. The book, entitled “2018. La Salida, Decadencia y Renacimiento de México” (2018: The Way Out, Mexico’s Decadence and Rebirth), con...

Politics: More Variables Ahead of 2018 Vote
MEXICO · Report · 23 Feb 2017

Major opinion polls involving a hypothetical field of the strongest contenders from each party for the 2018 presidential contest show Morena’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador in first place. But despite the impression in some quarters that he is gaining insuppressible momentum, he is still in a tech...

Hungary decided to withdraw its application for the 2024 Olympic Games
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Feb 2017

This was announced today, after a meeting with PM Orbán, the Mayor of Budapest and the head of the Hungarian Olympic Committee. Thanks God. There is now one reason less to worry about medium- and long-term fiscal stability. Hungary is just too small and relatively underdeveloped to host an olympi...

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