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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Depression and inflation but no default
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 08 Aug 2016 · 1 response

In our central scenario, we forecast that, in 2016–2017, Venezuela’s economy will continue to shrink and that inflation will stay in the triple digits. Helped by recovering oil prices, however, the pace of contraction will slow down in the second half of 2016 and even more so in 2017. Despite the...

More Uncertainty Over the Yuan
CHINA · Forecast · 08 Aug 2016

There’s downward pressure on growth, though we also expect growth rates to stabilize. GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, flat on Q1. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y. Though growth was 0.3 pps faster than in Q1, the recovery is weak. Retail sales of social consumption goods rose 10.2% y/y in nominal t...

Turkey’s Western dilemma
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2016

Even though GlobalSource Partners Turkey is officially “on vacation”, we will continue to update our readers on important upcoming events. As far as my brief (Politics) is concerned, developments in the domestic arena are proceeding largely according to the main scenario outlined in our latest Qu...

Housing prices likely to drift higher next year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Aug 2016

Recent economic indicators point to weak growth of 1.5% SAAR in Q216 (our estimate). Merchandise exports declined while imports increased. Private consumption indicators remain robust but slower than in Q116. Both chain store sales (3.9% SAAR) and debit card purchases (7%) up in Q216. Consumer co...

The forint may be too strong from the competitiveness point of view at EURHUF 311
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Aug 2016

As it happened, the forint, which started July trading in the EURHUF 316-318 range, appreciated in the second half of the month to EURHUF 310-312 and has been hanging around that level since then. Given the big external income surplus, such an appreciating trend may easily develop whenever the MN...

PPK’s Mandate Starts Vigorously
PERU · Report · 05 Aug 2016

President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, widely known as PPK, was sworn in on July 28th, though with a Congress comfortably dominated by the party of his losing opponent, Keiko Fujimori. Kuczynski used his inaugural speech to present his vision of a modern Peru, vowing to rekindle growth, and produce a “...

South African Local Elections: Preliminary Results & Potential Consequences
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 05 Aug 2016

Over the past 48 hours, SA Local Government (Municipal) Elections (LGE 2016) results have been taking shape gradually and systemically. The country's Independent Electoral Commission(IEC) conducted its largest election exercise since 1994 within a fairly professional, tightly secure, and totally ...

Guillermo Lasso and the Ecuadorian Debt
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Aug 2016

Some of our clients have expressed their concern regarding recent statements from Presidential Candidate Guillermo Lasso regarding his intention of "reviewing all foreign debt issued under this government".The statement is surprising coming from a former banker who truly understands the rules of ...

Colombia in Plebiscite Mode
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Aug 2016 · 1 response

Peace, or better said, the end of the conflict, seems to be near. Rumor has it that a peace deal might be signed in Havana before the end of the month. However, in order to meet this deadline there has also been talk of maintaining peace negotiations after a deal is signed. Namely, a deal would b...

COSTA RICA: The Central Bank Revises Its Macroeconomic Program for 2016-2017
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Aug 2016

As prescribed by law, the Central Bank announced the revision of its macroeconomic program for 2016-2017. We consider the Bank´s view relatively optimistic compared with the view presented in our July 28 Monthly Report, especially for 2017.

An Honest Anti-Corruption Campaign
UKRAINE · Report · 03 Aug 2016

The traditionally silent summer has taken an unexpected turn. The activities of the prosecutor’s office have led to intense developments, while the murder of famous journalist Pavel Sheremet shook society. Even two years after the Revolution of Dignity, the fight between old and new Ukraine is ho...

CPI Sharply Jumps on Food, Tobacco
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2016

​Consumer price inflation surprised sharply on the upside in July, coming in at 1.2%, raising the 12-month rate markedly higher to 8.8% from 7.6% in June. Some one percentage point (pp) of the total 1.2 pp increase in the 12-month rate was driven by food and tobacco sub-categories, which contribu...

Economic Activity Slows in July; Possible Consequences of a Trump Victory for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 02 Aug 2016

Broad readings of economic activity released last month pointed to a significant slowing even in the services and commercial sector, which has long served as the economy’s main growth driver. The monthly GDP proxy showed the economy growing at a subpar 12-month rate of 1.9% in May as opposed ...

Industrial production, retail sales and labor market
CHILE · Report · 02 Aug 2016

The June figures released by the National Institute of Statistics are coherent with an economy that continued in hibernation. Beyond the usual volatility, base effects and the effects of inflation fluctuations on the real numbers, these indicators are flat so far this year.

The recall moves forward
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Aug 2016 · 2 responses

On August 1, nearly three weeks after the deadline, Tibisay Lucena, president of the National Electoral Council (CNE), announced that the MUD succeeded in gathering the "expressions of will” required to qualify as applicant for a recall referendum (1 percent of the voter registry in each state). ...

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