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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A new battle cry
PERU · Report · 14 Sep 2018

The short-lived calm after Martín Vizcarra’s assumption of the presidency was shattered by the president’s bold July 28th Independence Day speech, in which he proposed controversial reforms to address the major ongoing judicial scandal. The president’s proposals include change in the political re...

Joy of a Victory: Ukraine Wins London Court Appeal on “Russian Bonds”
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Sep 2018

So, London judges finally recognized that politics was important part of a $3 billion deal between ex-president Victor Yanukovitch and Russian authorities. For Ukraine that’s a critical turning point in all disputes about Russian aggression and damages that Russian military intervention created. ...

Replacement of candidates
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2018

Due to the delicate recovery process faced by presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), Arko Advice has been frequently questioned about the possible consequences of a candidate’s death on the electoral race. Before we provide any answers, we would like to make it clear that we are hoping for ...

MPC: Back from the brink, again…
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Sep 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the policy rate (weekly-repo) by a markedly higher than expected 625 bps to 24% at today’s meeting, from 17.75% earlier. As all funding was being provided at the O/N rate of 19.25%, the move corresponds to a 475 bps hike, de facto, assuming all funding will no...

The European Parliament voted to initiate an Article 7 procedure against Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Sep 2018

For the first time in its history, the European Parliament today voted to call the European Council to start an Article 7 procedure against a member country, and this member happens to be Hungary. As well-known to most readers, the Article 7 procedure is a reconciliation and sanctioning mechanism...

Will RBI defend the rupee?
INDIA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2018

The Indian rupee has depreciated sharply in the first week of September. Since 3rd September 2018 it has been the fastest depreciating currency in Asia.There seem to be three key factors at play. First, EM currencies are under pressure. Second, India is a large oil importer and global oil prices ...

An enormous inflationary shock
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Sep 2018

The measures announced on 17 August by president Maduro created turmoil, on top of the enactment of monetary reconversion and increases in regulated prices, and contributed to an upsurge in inflation well above the already worrying acceleration we predicted for the month. Its direct impact will b...

IMF arrives, as election prospects turn murky
UKRAINE · Report · 11 Sep 2018

The IMF remains the key to many issues in Ukraine. News of the September 6th arrival of its mission signaled that a deal had been reached with Ukrainian authorities. On August 29th, however, the Cabinet extended existing residential gas rates for another month, which confused observers. We remain...

Beto Richa arrest and Palocci revelations hurt the PSDB and the PT
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2018

Two new facts are creating additional wear on the PSDB and PT in the race just as Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) and Fernando Haddad (PT) are in an intense contest with their adversaries to secure a spot in the runoff round. On Tuesday morning, September 11, the former governor of Paraná and candidate fo...

Datafolha: Bolsonaro leads; Ciro, Marina, Alckmin and Haddad fight for second
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2018

The poll released yesterday, September 10, by Datafolha after ten days of electoral ads on radio and TV and the first poll conducted after the stabbing of candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) shows that Bolsonaro continues to consolidate his vote, and at this time is the closest to securing a spot in t...

Much ado about (almost) nothing
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Sep 2018

According to the government, Exchange Agreement 1 dated September 7, 2018 brings free convertibility, a market-determined single floating exchange rate, and legal security in forex matters. But very little has changed. There is no free convertibility. Forex can only be traded through authorized e...

Q&A on the impact of the Bolsonaro attack and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2018

The week begins with questions regarding the recovery of presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL). Polls released throughout the week should capture the impact of the knife attack he suffered last Thursday, September 6. Fernando Haddad will officially become the candidate of the PT. Minister D...

A climate of uncertainty leading to opposite scenarios
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Sep 2018

Brazil is in the midst of a fiscal crisis that is still in latent state, and may or may not become an open crisis. In October a new president will be elected, and it is not known on what diagnosis the next government will base its economic policy actions, or if there will be sufficient congressio...

Economics: Slowing apparent in the latest GDP sectoral results
MEXICO · Report · 10 Sep 2018

The weakness of GDP during the second quarter was largely due to slackened growth in manufacturing and construction and the long-term trend toward a substantial erosion of Mexico’s oil and gas platform. Despite the United States’ imposition of import taxes on Mexican-made steel products, the ...

BTG Pactual presidential poll
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2018

A BTG Pactual poll conducted after the Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) stabbing was recently released. The poll was contracted by FSB/BTG Pactual and was conducted on September 8-9. This report analyzes the main results.

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