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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Abstaining from an optimistic consensus
MEXICO · Report · 13 Aug 2018

Many have interpreted the data contained in the preliminary GDP report for the second quarter as confirmation that the Mexican economy shows no sign of slowing down. However, we at GEA disagree with that assessment as a look at a broader array of indicators points to a scenario in which the econo...

Politics: An opposition trying to find its footing
MEXICO · Report · 13 Aug 2018

Opposition parties will be at a great disadvantage when the new Congress convenes September 1. With a greatly diminished presence in federal and state congresses, the majority of their governors soon to be shackled by state legislatures dominated by Morena and other local opposition parties, and ...

Main trends in the presidential race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2018

On Tuesday, August 14, Minister Rosa Weber takes over the Superior Electoral Court. The deadline to register candidates with the Electoral Court is Wednesday, August 15. The PT and social movements are promising to organize demonstrations to support Lula. The electoral campaign begins on Thursday...

They are off
PANAMA · In Brief · 13 Aug 2018

Cambio Democratico (CD) held its primary elections to select the presidential candidate this past Sunday. The battle was between Rómulo Roux (a lawyer, center-right politician and former Minister of Canal Affairs in the Martinelli administration) and José Raúl Mulino (former Minister of Security ...

The monetary policy bearings
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Aug 2018

The final days of last week were marked by strong depreciation of the Turkish lira, followed by intense movements of the South African rand and Argentinian peso. Movements like these tend to spread to other emerging country currencies, and will likely affect the real in particular due to the unce...

A downward GDP growth surprise is likely in Q218
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Aug 2018

Wage growth appears to have moderated in recent months, which is supportive of modest inflation. Israeli institutions continue to purchase FX but at a modest pace, less than the CA surplus and FDI. The fiscal deficit is likely to surpass the fiscal target of 2.9% of GDP this year. Zoom in: ...

GDP growth is expected to decelerate in Q2
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Aug 2018

Q2 GDP growth is scheduled to be reported in first estimate early tomorrow. Analysts in Portfolio.hu's poll expect 4.2% yoy growth on sda basis, down from 4.7% yoy in Q1 and the 4.9% yoy cyclical peak in Q4 2017. We believe this is largely correct, but we would not be surprised at a somewhat lowe...

The week of fear and loathing
TURKEY · Report · 12 Aug 2018

The authors of this note agree that Turkey is on the verge of a historic moment, where the outcome entirely depends on President Erdogan’s “reaction function”. Neither of us are trained in clinical psychiatry or mind-reading, which means that our interpretations of what the Great Leader might be ...

​Clarification: BRSA denies meeting with banks
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Aug 2018 · 1 response

I’ve reported this morning that BRSA has called an emergency meeting with banks. I’ve based this market brief on reports from Bloomberg News and IPA, both of which were linked at the end of the commentary. Later BRSA denied such a meeting was called. Nevertheless, my contacts with several bankers...

​BRSA calls emergency meeting with banks
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2018

I don’t know if any of our audience checks her mail box on Saturday, but this can’t wait until Monday. Bloomberg as well as IPA International Press Agency claim that Turkey’s banking authority BRSA has invited banks, leasing and factoring companies to an emergency meeting on Saturday to assess th...

Fifteen-month labor
ECUADOR · Report · 10 Aug 2018

Finally, after 15 months, Ecuador has an economic bill that, albeit with limitations and inconsistencies, approaches a different economic model from that established by President Correa. Emerging from the Correato has proven more difficult than expected for the new government, so it seeks through...

In a lukewarm debate, Alckmin focuses on proposals
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2018

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) was the candidate who stood out in the first presidential debate, aired by TV Bandeirantes. The PSDB candidate avoided personal attacks and focused on his proposals. However, at times he failed to connect with the audience because of his use of complicated terminology such ...

CHILE: Cabinet Shuffle
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Aug 2018

Although he only shuffled three cabinet posts on Thursday, Chilean President Sebastián Piñera sent a broader message; he is admitting that the honeymoon is over.The two ministers to go were Education Minister Gerardo Varela and Culture Minister Alejandra Perez. Environment Minister Marcela Cubill...

Political parties law: Medina gets half of a victory
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Aug 2018

Tuesday night, the Chamber of Representatives voted positively for a law of parties that allows parties to choose the procedure to elect nominees for President and Vicepresident, members of Congress and local authorities. The bill was supported by danilistas and allied parties, and PRM representa...

GDP growth slides; policy rates raised
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2018 · 1 response

After adjusting down its 1Q18 economic growth estimate from 6.8% to 6.6%, government announced today that 2Q18 GDP growth slipped to 6%, far below the median 6.8% analysts’ forecast. While the headline figure is disappointing, what is striking about the 2Q18 performance is the strength of domesti...

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