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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The presidential epoch about to begin
TURKEY · Report · 08 Jul 2018

President Erdogan will unveil his Cabinet on Monday night at 9:30 pm. He hinted that it may contain mostly technocrats. Ankara’s point men with markets and creditors, Messrs. Simsek and Agbal may not be part of the new team. The new personnel will be probably selected on their “closeness” to the ...

Speculation on the weak forint may be over for now
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2018

With EURHUF falling back below 324 in the last three days, the latest wave of speculation on the weak forint seems to be largely over. It may be time to take stock, draw some lessons and to make some new guesses.First, it seems what ended the last two months' trend of HUF weakness was ended by a ...

Political party law remains deadlocked
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 05 Jul 2018

Data available through May indicates that growth has been higher than expected, even compared to optimistic official forecasts. In May, real GDP growth (measured by the IMAE) reached 6.4% compared to May 2017, and between January and May, growth reached 6.6%. Construction stands out among economi...

Inflation jumps anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jul 2018

June inflation rate rose sharply to 5.2%, exceeding the high-end of the BSP’s forecast range (4.3% to 5.1%) for the month as well as the median analysts’ forecast (4.7%). Month-on-month inflation, which had showed signs of decelerating in April and May, jumped by 0.6% in June. Apart from seasonal...

Tax on Withdrawn Capital
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Jul 2018

Yesterday, on July 4th, President Petro Poroshenko announced that he submitted draft law on tax on withdrawn capital to the parliament. It’s a very important initiative for local business environment and here is why. In Ukraine informal rules are much more important than formal legislature. A for...

The fiscal playing field for the Duque administration
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Jul 2018

As the Santos administration comes to an end, the Ministry of Finance submitted to Congress its last Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) during the second week of June. President Iván Duque has announced fiscal policy will be on top of his four-year economic agenda, so we expect this MTFF to be m...

Mexico Conference Call: Elections 2018 - Change and the prospects ahead
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jul 2018

In the wake of the uncertainty generated by the election of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as president of Mexico, GlobalSource Partners invites you to a conference call featuring our Mexico City-based local partners Mauricio Gonzalez and Guillermo Valdes, "Elections 2018 - Change and the prospects ...

Economy Slows Amid Uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jul 2018

Economic news published in June tended to provide further evidence of an economy that is losing steam, as private consumption and export activity, which have served as the main drivers in recent years, registered steadily lower growth. There were relatively positive signs, such as an extension th...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jul 2018 · 2 responses

The change in the international scenario, with the appreciation of the dollar triggering a wave of revisions of the risk perceptions of emerging countries, ended a long period of leniency, during which investors did not react to the errors in conducting economic policies based on the consideratio...

Inflation surges, chastening forecasters
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2018

Consumer prices rose by a whopping 2.6% in June – at a rate about twice faster than the consensus -- which raised the 12-month rate to 15.4%, up from 12.1% in May. We are now looking to CPI inflation ending the year in the 14%-15% range, mechanically speaking, though we shall shortly revisit this...

First notes on the Mexican election
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 Jul 2018

The victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador was bigger than anticipated: according to the quick count made by the National Electoral Institute (INE), he obtained 53% of the votes, 31 percentage points more than Ricardo Anaya, candidate of the coalition For Mexico to the Front and 38 points more th...

AMLO MAY START HIS PRESIDENCY WITH FAVORABLE ECONOMIC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENTS
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 Jul 2018

Finally AMLO won Mexico’s Presidency after three attempts. In previous presidential elections in 1988, 1994, 2000, 2006 and 2012, economic continuity was essentially granted by market friendly economic policies and strong committments to preserve economic stabilty.AMLO is not antimarket per se, a...

Credit, economic activity and monetary policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jul 2018

The economic recovery will be slower than foreseen before the truckers’ strike in May, both because of its direct effects (temporary paralysis of transport and part of manufacturing activity) and indirect ones (worsening of sentiment and financial conditions). This, along with anchored inflation ...

China’s “nervous economy”: The rate cut won’t solve the problem
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 Jul 2018

Three events have occurred in the past several weeks that indicate China’s increasing nervousness about the state of its economy: 1) The PBOC engineered a targeted rate cut; 2) The domestic market fell more than 20 percent from its peak, and 3) An internal document warning of a “financ...

Annual exodus
INDONESIA · Report · 02 Jul 2018

The month of June was full of interesting economic activity. In the first half of the month, the majority of Indonesians were finishing their fasting month. The peak was the big holidays, similar to the Christmas holidays in western countries. This year, the holidays lasted for around 10 days, wh...

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