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President suggests Smoliy as replacement to Hontareva
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jan 2018

President Poroshenko finally made his decision about new Head of the National bank of Ukraine. Today he suggested for this position Ykiv Smoliy, currently acting Head of the National bank. Previously observers discussed Volodymyr Lavrenchuk (Chairman of the Board of Aval bank) and Roman Shpek (He...

New privatization law approved
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jan 2018

Today parliament finally approved new law on privatization. This law is among the IMF requirements. The key features of the law include (a) introduction of independent investment advisors that accompany sale of large state owned enterprises, (b) sale of small stakes of state property through Inte...

Golden scenario to run until end-2019, sort of
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Jan 2018

Our new quarterly forecast marks an unusually smooth macroeconomic path for Hungary in 2018-2019. This should come about with annual real GDP growth above 3%, relatively low, though rising, inflation, a material, though shrinking, external income surplus, and a moderately decreasing government de...

The reserve bank opts to keep interest rates unchanged amid credit rating uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Jan 2018

The South African Reserve Bank’s Governor Lesetja Kganyago has announced today that the MPC has voted in favour of leaving the repo rate unchanged at 6.75 and therefore the prime interest rate at 10.25. The Reserve Bank MPC’s decision to not change interest rates comes despite the latest infla...

In a stupor
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Jan 2018

Hyperinflation is an unprecedented experience in Venezuela. The population is quickly moving from stupor and bewilderment to a frantic search for survival tools. Inflation accelerates dramatically as demand for money collapses, money supply surges and shortages worsen. The monthly inflation ra...

MPC: No action, somewhat more hawkish
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2018

​In line with the consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) did not change any of the short-term interest rates at today’s meeting, keeping the Late Liquidity Window lending rate at 12.75%, one-week repo rate at 8.0%, and the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respect...

New ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa injects some optimism into the South African economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 17 Jan 2018

South Africa’s Growth: The South African economy has managed to grow at a relatively decent rate (2.0%) during the third quarter of 2017, following the surprise 2.8% growth in the second. Generally, however, the country’s economic growth has been stuck in low gear, averaging only 2.1% over the pa...

Stronger than expected opposition downplays growth optimism
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 16 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Negotiations with governors and trade union leaders during November and discussions in Congress during December proved to be more difficult than anticipated in our previous quarterly report.​ Several desirable features of the tax and labor reforms had to be abandoned or postponed. Instead, the...

Politics: 2018 campaign entering critical phase
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jan 2018

As the three coalitions embark on the final month of the preliminary phase of the presidential race, in which they are using the nomination contests -whose outcomes have been a foregone conclusion for some time- to get their candidates better known and polish their image, they also brace for an e...

Economics: Taking stock and looking ahead
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jan 2018

We look for the Mexican economy to essentially sustain its 2017 pace of growth in the coming year and by sector for services to remain the main motor force. We project the agricultural sector to step up its pace of growth and manufacturing to serve as the strongest contributor to industrial growt...

Erdogan serious about entering Afrin
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jan 2018

President Erdogan proclaimed in the most emphatic tones used heretofore that a military operation could commence to purge Kurdish-held Afrin canton and Manbij district of Syria from terror “any minute”. Indeed, Turkish press reports massive force build-up at the Afrin border, as well as detailed ...

Week of January 15
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jan 2018

President Michel Temer has until Friday (January 19) to answer questions from the Federal Police on supposed irregularities in the drafting of a decree that benefited companies from the ports sector. The impasse regarding the appointment of Rep. Cristiane Brasil to the Ministry of Labor persists ...

Has the bond market arrived?
INDIA · Report · 15 Jan 2018

Bank credit to the private sector has grown slowly with the slow realisation by banks and their regulator that there is a serious banking crisis at hand. A natural channel that may get exploited, with inadequate bank lending, is bond market financing. This is particularly important in the field o...

Monetary and fiscal policy: What corrections are necessary?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jan 2018

​While monetary policy is being rewarded by the sharp fall of inflation and clear anchoring of expectations, allowing the interest rate to be reduced to a level that stimulates economic recovery, the perspectives for fiscal policy are alarming. Granted, advances have been made, such as approval o...

Some things to watch for in 2018: Part Two
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Jan 2018 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * For all the discussion about enforcing market discipline by eliminating explicit or implicit government guarantees on local-government and corporate borrowings, any credible reintroduction of credit risk is likely to cause an unacceptably large and ...

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