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Trump-Erdogan phone summit: Lost in translation
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Turkish Forces, aided by Free Syrian Army (FSA) brigades are gradually encircling the Kurdish-majority Afrin province of Syria in Northwest. Clashes are getting fierce by the day with casualties mounting on both sides. Afrin invasion is only the beginning of Turkey’s long and arduous adventure in...

Lula convicted by higher court
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jan 2018

The Regional Federal Court of the 4th Region (TRF-4) decided unanimously (3-0) to convict former President Lula of the crimes of passive corruption and money laundering after receiving bribes from the construction company OAS in exchange for Petrobras contracts, sentencing the former president to...

COSTA RICA: February elections are key
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Jan 2018

Costa Ricans will vote on February 4th to elect a new president, two vice presidents and 57 legislators. There are 13 presidential candidates, and the electoral process could last until April 1st, when a runoff between the two top candidates will take place if no one wins least 40% of the vote i...

Bond investors seem to be a bit disappointed
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Bloomberg wrote this morning on the most recent correction that took place on the Hungarian government bond market over the past few days:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-24...In fact, the HUF bond market started this year with a great deal of optimism, with the 5-year government b...

The new cabinet: Piñerismo
CHILE · Report · 23 Jan 2018

In presidential systems, and especially in those with coalition governments, cabinet formation takes on different meanings. People watch for how cabinet posts are distributed among political parties, how close to gender parity the cabinet is, what the ideological leanings of individual ministers ...

The first sign of recovery, in the labor market
INDIA · Report · 23 Jan 2018

Some data about the labor market is now visible through the CMIE Consumer Pyramids household survey data. This shows that the demonetization and GST events made for difficulties from Sep-Dec 2016 to May-Aug 2017. In Sep-Dec 2017, conditions stopped worsening, and by one indicator, have started i...

6.6% 4Q17 GDP growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jan 2018

4Q17 GDP grew 6.6%, slowing from the 7% growth clip in 3Q17 as the trade gap widened anew. Highlights of the latest data release include:1. Faster growth of private consumption, which at 6.1% in 4Q17, is the fastest quarterly growth for 2017. The 3Q17 growth rate was adjusted upwards from 4.5% in...

Week of January 22
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jan 2018

Wednesday’s trial of former President Lula in the TRF-4 Court will be the main topic of the week. The PT and social movements have scheduled a series of protests in favor of the former president. On Thursday PT leaders meet to reaffirm the party’s support for Lula’s presidential candidacy. Presid...

Politics: Chihuahua rattles presidential contest
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2018

The investigations being pursued by the Chihuahua state government (PAN) against PRI politicians, and its protest against the federal ministry of finance for allegedly withholding funds in an act of political leverage or retaliation in relation to those criminal investigations, is having a major ...

Economics: New risks to the pace of inflation
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2018

The unexpected high at which inflation ended in 2017 has sparked considerable discussion and concern due both to the extent and pace at which consumer prices have risen. We at GEA have long reported on expectations of an acceleration owing to gains seen for some time in prices for diverse inpu...

China’s hidden stimulus: LGFVs local investment platforms load up on bonds
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Jan 2018

Chinese officials have made many statements in recent months about reducing risk in the financial system, and “deleveraging.” However, while tools such as higher interest rates and rules to reduce risky assets have targeted the weakest banks, credit continues to flow into the economy. Credit s...

Effective deeds and not only sweet words
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Jan 2018

Alianza Pais, the most powerful political party of the last 10 years, finally broke last week when the hard Correista group decided to exit the party and create a new one called The People’s Revolution headed once more by Rafael Correa. This group is actively campaigning against the “yes” to t...

The fiscal challenge
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jan 2018

The recession is over and the next challenges facing the country are to achieve reforms in two areas: fiscal control and productivity growth. In this report we reiterate the magnitude of the fiscal challenge in the medium term. The problem of the debt dynamic will not be resolved only with approv...

Zuma Count Down: the "non-president" president of SA
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 22 Jan 2018 · 1 response

over the past couple of days, it has become clear that Zuma's days are numbered. On Thursday last week, the newly elected National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC passed a motion to negotiate an exit plan for Zuma. Then the NEC moved quickly to demonstrate that Zuma has no de facto president...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jan 2018

On Saturday evening, the Turkish government heralded the commencement of Operation Olive Branch to root out PYD-YPG and remaining ISIS elements out of Northwest Syrian canton of Afrin. It will not be easy to achieve that objective, considering how well-prepared and committed the pro-PKK Kurdish m...

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