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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

En route to Nicaragua?
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2017 · 1 response

The government seems interested in having elections soon and seeks to implement conditions á la Nicaragua 2016 to ensure victory. On February 7, the National Electoral Council (CNE) convened 56 opposition parties, including all those forming the Democratic Unity Table (MUD) to re-enroll. The req...

Tense days in Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Feb 2017

First, let me give you what you need to know: Turkey’s High Election Board officially announced the referendum date as 16th of April. We have a few new polls, two of which show YES votes ahead, one the other way around. Once again, the loud agonizing streaming from the AKP and MHP camps suggests ...

New Guidelines for Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Feb 2017

An important change has occurred in the government’s orientation regarding credit. Less emphasis is being given to the use of official banks, which was a marked characteristic of the economic policy in the period after the international crisis, and was intensified under the so-called “New Economi...

Week of February 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2017

President Michel Temer may announce the new appointee to the Ministry of Justice, replacing Alexandre Moraes, who was appointed to the STF. The Special Committees on Pension and Labor Reform will discuss work schedules. The agenda in the Lower House contains the bill that reopens the deadline for...

A Tough Row to Hoe
PERU · Forecast · 13 Feb 2017

We’ve revised our growth forecasts downward to 3.6% for 2017 and 3.8% for 2018- 2019. Albeit less rosy than official forecasts, our outlook for the Peruvian economy remains upbeat. The government is striving to speed along previously delayed PPP projects, while cutting red tape for investment,...

The Labor Market: Opposite Signs
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Feb 2017

It is known that the labor market is one of the last to recover after the end of a recession. Therefore, the unemployment rate should continue to rise in the coming quarters, but some positive signs have started to appear. At the same time the jobless rate continues to climb steeply, wages have s...

Stable 2017 Expected, Despite Global Uncertainties
CHINA · Forecast · 12 Feb 2017

Given China’s strong fiscal condition, we expect the country to enjoy stable growth in 2017, global uncertainties notwithstanding. GDP rose 6.7% y/y in 2016, down 0.2 pps from 2015, and admittedly the lowest recent yearly rise. Fixed asset investment was up 8.1%, down 1.9 pps from 2015. After the...

All Eyes on the Referendum
TURKEY · Forecast · 12 Feb 2017

Economy remains weak and the political atmosphere toxic, which makes the road to the presidential referendum, scheduled for April 16th, crucial as well as rocky. If AKP loses the referendum, Turkey could enter an existential crisis. If it wins, which is our base-case scenario for now, it gets a l...

Moreno and Lasso Probably Disputing the Presidency
ECUADOR · In Brief · 10 Feb 2017

According to the Electoral Law, February 8th was the last day to publish presidential polls results before the elections on February 19th. These last publications are not much different from the ones provided back in January 24th. Around 30% of Ecuadorians still have not yet decided whom they wil...

Economics: NAFTA Renegotiation Scenarios
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2017

Three weeks have passed since Donald Trump assumed the office of president of the United States, and Mexico’s productive sector remains gripped by uncertainty as to the repercussions of potential changes to United States trade policy. With a zealous commitment to implementing a poorly conceive...

President Zuma’s 2017 State of Nation Address: Not Much Inspiration, and Much Humiliation, Insults, Pepper Gas and Eviction
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Feb 2017

President Zuma’s State of Nation Addresses (SONA) 2017 was a lot more dramatic than his 2016. His speech was delayed by an hour due to melodramatic, eventful, violent and humiliating display of political theatrics. Armed with last year’s Constitutional Court’s judgement that President Zuma had vi...

Monetary Policy for 2017
INDIA · Report · 09 Feb 2017

Inflation has declined, and the outlook for inflation is soft. Demonetization is likely to have induced a slowdown in the economy, which will feed back into soft inflation. We expect weak output growth in calendar year 2017 across a variety of output measures. In order to achieve the inflation ta...

Politics: State of Mexico Contests Key for 2018
MEXICO · Report · 09 Feb 2017

Voters will elect new governors in Coahuila, Nayarit and the State of Mexico and choose new municipal presidents in Veracruz in June. All four contests serve as early indicators of how electoral preferences are shaping up in relation to the three parties currently enjoying the strongest polling r...

GDP surges 4.5-4.8% in 4Q16, officials say
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Feb 2017

GDP surged 4.5-4.8% y/y in 4Q16 the Head of State Statistics Service Igor Verner reported at the Cabinet meeting yesterday. This means that in 2016 GDP increased 2.2% y/y which is much above our estimates (we projected 1.4% y/y). If the estimate proves to be correct it’s definitely good news. At ...

​Monetary policy stance changed to neutral
INDIA · In Brief · 09 Feb 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee took yet another unanimous decision on policy rates. This time, in its third meeting, the unanimous decision was to keep the policy rate unchanged, and to change the stance of monetary policy from “accommodative” to “neutral”. It is difficult to understand how a deci...

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