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Some things to watch for in 2018: Part Two
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Jan 2018 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * For all the discussion about enforcing market discipline by eliminating explicit or implicit government guarantees on local-government and corporate borrowings, any credible reintroduction of credit risk is likely to cause an unacceptably large and ...

How is investment faring?
INDIA · Report · 14 Jan 2018

Micro data about investment is reliable, and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, we are now able to observe the Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 quarter. This is the first macro data release for the quarter. The broad picture of weak nominal investment under implementation remains. Private...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2018

Turkey’s relations with the U.S. took another turn for the worse, as Washington hinted at its intention to help PYD-YPG build a “state” in North-East Syria. President Erdogan threatened military retaliation in “one week”. Syria is also poisoning Turkey’s budding romance with Russia and Iran, as A...

Cyril Ramaphosa launches his ANC Presidency
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 13 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Today, the ANC celebrates its 106th years, in its customary "8th of January Statement". The Party was formed on 8th of January 106 years back. Its new president, Cyril Ramaphosa delivered a strong and wide-ranging speech in the presence of the party's newly elected National Executive Committee (N...

CPI-inflation in December: A big drop by the headline rate and a small increase in core rates
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jan 2018

Headline CPI-inflation came out at 0% mom, 2.1% yoy in December, the yoy rate down from 2.5% yoy in the previous month. The actual was just 0.1 percentage point below consensus, which we shared, due to a minor surprise presented by fuel prices, which fell by 1.2% mom at the retail level, despite ...

2017 Results Mixed; 2018 Prospects Good
UKRAINE · Forecast · 11 Jan 2018

Results for 2017 were mixed. Ukraine’s economy is on the rise, and many positive achievements were reached. But 2018 begins with one awful reality: ongoing attacks against the new anti-corruption agencies have revealed to the world just how reluctant the establishment is to give up its rent-seeki...

Slower growth and fiscal misalignment mark 2017
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 10 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Deceleration of economic activity was the main feature of economic performance in 2017. Despite a robust rebound in November, and possibly in December, hopes that real GDP growth would end at 5% faded. Cumulative growth between January and November was 4.2%, and the expected rate for the year ran...

The public debt auditing and overseeing commission
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Jan 2018 · 1 response

The Comptroller General is conducting an audit to public debt contracted between 2012 and 2017. The scope of the analysis covers domestic and external debt including Chinese loans and oil facilities despite the claim from the government that this financing does not constitute debt but just a pre-...

President Zuma's sunset week
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Jan 2018

South Africa is once again abuzz with speculations and excitements about President Zuma. This time it is not about what Zuma will do, rather what will be done to Zuma. This is a regime change for Zuma's decade of unquestioned control and dominance. Whereas during the past decade he had all the le...

Our take on current protests
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 08 Jan 2018 · 1 response

2018 starts off with social conflict. Riots began shortly after the municipal elections, the final event of the electoral cycle that allowed Maduro to hold on to power thanks to a new social contract: the promise of subsidized food in exchange for votes. The "Pax Madurista" turned out to be short...

Week of January 8
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jan 2018

Congressional representative Cristiane Brasil (PTB-RJ) takes over as Minister of Labor on Tuesday, January 9. Rede will define the pre-electoral agenda for Marina Silva, the party’s presidential candidate. On Saturday, January 13, state leaders of the PT party organize an act in defense of former...

A new vice-president was elected
ECUADOR · In Brief · 08 Jan 2018

After three months of political uncertainty, the destiny of former Vice-President Jorge Glass, sentenced to six years of prison, was sealed this past Saturday when legislators voted for Deputy Vice-President Maria Alejandra Vicuna to continue in office. Vicuna, once an enthusiastic Correista who ...

The resumption of investments: At what pace?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jan 2018

There are no longer any doubts that Brazil’s economy is recovering, and that its driving force, on the aggregate demand side, is household consumption. Although fixed capital investments grew in the third quarter of 2017 after a long sequence of declines, there are no indications yet of anything ...

Some things to watch for in 2018: Part One
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Jan 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Because China still has debt capacity, GDP growth in 2018 will be broadly equal to whatever Beijing sets as its GDP growth target. It is extremely unlikely, however, that Beijing will set the target at anywhere close to the level that allows regulat...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jan 2018

After a jury found former Halk Bank EVP Hakan Atilla guilty of 5 charges, fears of wide-spread fines or sanctions on Turkish banks rose. Ankara, too, seems aware of the danger, reportedly initiating backchannel talks with Washington D.C. to mitigate the damage.The White House is likely to present...

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