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What is the necessary fiscal effort: Brazil in relation to the world
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2018

The objective of this Special Report is to compare Brazil’s behavior in relation to the large majority of countries in a particular field of fiscal policy execution, that of “fiscal effort”, defined as the variation in the primary result necessary to stabilize the public debt in relation to GDP. ...

Week of February 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2018

With the end of the parliamentary recess, the priority on the legislative agenda is Pension Reform. The rapporteur, Arthur Maia (PPS-BA), will present the new text on Tuesday, February 6. Former President Lula will launch his presidential pre-candidacy in Belo Horizonte on February 7. Luiz Fux ta...

Is today the first day of Lenin´s administration?
ECUADOR · In Brief · 05 Feb 2018

For many Ecuadorians today is the first day of Lenin Moreno´s administration even though eight months have already elapsed, albeit without establishing clear paths for top national priorities. In fact, the national vote favored the "seven times yes" promoted by the government ‒ including the two ...

Economic activity recovering more strongly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2018

In the past several weeks, evidence has been mounting of better conditions for investment growth. These include improved financial conditions, signs of business credit recovery, and a significant drop in the stock of unsold new residential units. The sum of these factors opens room for faster gro...

Robust and stable
CHINA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2018

Stability was the watchword for 2017, with growth expanding by a comfortable 6.9% for the year, 0.2 pps more than in 2016. Growth was also consistent all year, rising 6.9% y/y in Q1 and Q2, and 6.8% y/y in Q3 and Q4. Value added for primary industry rose 3.9% in 2017, up 0.2 pps from 2016; manufa...

Politics: AMLO and Anaya Battle for the Lead
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2018

Fifty days of supposed campaigning for presidential nominations that were decided long ago provide us with a preview of the strategies the three major candidates are developing for the general election that gets underway March 30. Lacking in charisma, future PRI nominee José Antonio Meade has the...

Food prices drive inflation lower
TURKEY · Report · 05 Feb 2018

Consumer prices rose at a lower than expected 1% in January (consensus: 1.3%), with the 12-month rate hence falling even sharper to 10.3%, from 11.9% in December. Producer prices also eased significantly to 12.1% from 15.5%, but that was largely because of a sharp drop in energy (more specificall...

Vice Governor Nagy spoke again this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Feb 2018

The MNB's second most important policy-making figure, Vice Governor Márton Nagy spoke again this morning, this time in the form of an interview given to the economic daily Világgazdaság. In this he said the following:- The MNB remains committed to reducing long-term HUF yields in relation to simi...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 04 Feb 2018

Turkish Forces, supported by the Free Syrian Army auxiliaries, are slowly pushing back Syrian Kurds in Afrin, but final victory will take months and cost many lives. Turkey is already losing the world opinion and the potential for public backlash is non-negligible if casualties mount. Washingt...

Encouraging news from the oil sector
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Feb 2018

An increase in price for the Ecuadorian crude oil basket to around $60/b is not the only good news coming from the sector. Minister Carlos Perez announced the Republic will continue to develop the Refinery from the Pacific, now the Refinery from Manabi, but now under more reasonable and attractiv...

The MNB this week: just as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2018

Yes, we had a rate-setting meeting on Tuesday and the second MIRS auction today. But everything went smoothly, just as expected.On Tuesday, the Monetary Council took no action and said essentially nothing new, may be except for saying that the MNB already started to buy mortgage bonds in January....

A blueprint for public expenditure in the future
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Feb 2018

An independent commission charged with making recommendations about the size, composition and efficiency of public spending in Colombia hasn’t advocated spending cuts, but has focused on efficiency, inflexibility and income redistribution. The Public Spending and Investment Commission (PSIC) h...

Lula still leads after conviction, but his ability to transfer votes declines
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2018

The first electoral poll released by Datafolha after the conviction of former President Lula by the TRF-4 Court shows that he retains his lead in the race but his image has suffered. More than half of voters would not vote for a candidate supported by the former president.

Bad legal news for Martinelli, bad political news for president Varela, good news for the economy
PANAMA · Report · 31 Jan 2018

U.S. District Judge Marcia Cooke declined to accept the writ of habeas corpus submitted by Martinelli´s defense and ratified judge Edwin Torres’ decision to approve Martinelli´s extradition to Panama for illegally monitoring phone calls and other communications of 150 people using a surveillance ...

The stock index continued to rise
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Jan 2018

The Indonesian capital market has seen new momentum since the beginning of 2018. After climbing by almost 20% in 2017 to reach a level of 6,355.65, the stock market index continued to rise to reach over 6,600 in the third week of January 2018, meaning that in a period of three weeks the Indonesia...

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