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Change in the Monetary Policy Signal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Nov 2015

Although keeping the SELIC rate at 14.25% a year, the Central Bank signaled that it might return to a tightening cycle. At the last COPOM meeting, two directors voted for a hike of 0.5 percentage point, and the communiqué omitted the previous comment that the interest rate would be maintained “fo...

Bad news, good news
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Nov 2015

So many events are developing so fast that I couldn’t cover them all in the Weekly Tracker. In this update I’ll report on the murder of the Diyarbakir Bar Association Chairman Mr. Tahir Elci (bad news) and the summit agreement between Turkey and EU (very good news) regarding refugees and the open...

Dilma Rousseff Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Nov 2015

Though Sen. Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) leads all the scenarios in which he appears as a candidate for the 2018 presidential elections, the news in the most recent Datafolha poll is that former Senator Marina Silva (Rede), who placed third in the 2010 and 2014 elections, is a threat to both Aécio and f...

Weekly Tracker: Nov 29 - Dec 5
TURKEY · Report · 29 Nov 2015

The downed jet fighter crisis between Turkey and Russia will not fade away soon. Russia’s real motive is to disengage Turkey from all Syrian affairs, for which it found the perfect excuse. The crisis is likely to escalate in the military and economic dimensions, raising Turkey’s risk premium perm...

What Now?
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Nov 2015

Will Finance Minister Mauricio Cárdenas leave the government in the next political shuffling, to follow the siren call of a 2018 presidential candidacy? Rumor has it that he might. And the rumor may have merit, since President Juan Manuel Santos’ Partido de la U lacks a credible candidate – and i...

Conflicting signals from the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Nov 2015

It usually does not look very elegant to return to any story with a markedly different conclusion within a few days' time. But this time around we need to do exactly this. As it happened, just one day after a senior staff member of the MNB (Mr. Virág, executive director) made a rare and specific ...

Economics: Congress’ Tinkering with the Budget
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2015

As we analyzed in previous issues of Weekly Trends: Mexico Economy since October 26, the changes the Mexican Congress introduced to President Enrique Peña Nieto’s original 2016 Revenue Law propose an increase of 16.9 billion pesos. In contrast, lawmakers left the president’s public deficit propos...

Politics: Two Seats to Fill on High Court
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2015

President Enrique Peña Nieto has sent the Senate two alternative lists of candidates from which to choose the two people who are to fill vacancies on the Supreme Court being left by Justices Olga Sánchez Cordero and Juan Silva Meza, who are concluding their 15-year terms on the bench. This is the...

GDP at 6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Nov 2015

The economy’s 3Q15 performance, with growth accelerating to 6% on strong domestic demand, was generally in line with what we expected. The main source of higher growth last quarter was government spending. Public consumption rose 17% and public construction jumped 41%. Improved government expendi...

Healthy Vanity
ECUADOR · Forecast · 25 Nov 2015

In a sign of healthy and deserved vanity, President Rafael Correa has announced that he won’t run for reelection in 2017. Given the obvious fragmentation and mediocrity of the opposition, he said, his otherwise crucial presence wouldn’t be necessary to guarantee his party’s continuance in power. ...

Lava Jato Investigation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2015

The arrest of Senator Delcídio Amaral (PT-MS), situation leader (Dilma alley) in the Senate, has placed President Dilma and company back into the focus of Operation Lava Jato (Car Wash). Previously, President Dilma and her alleys had managed to shift the focus of the investigation on to Congress....

A rare kind of MNB statement on the forint's exchange rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Nov 2015

'We need a forint exchange rate, by which the 3% inflation target can be reached on the forecast horizon." This came from a high-ranking staff member of the MNB, Mr. Barnabás Virág, executive director, talking to Reuters earlier today. He added that Hungary's inflationary and growth outlook are b...

Tough and Thrilling Times
PERU · Report · 25 Nov 2015

More than 20 political parties have jumped into the April 10th presidential race, though only about 10 candidates are likely to emerge, after parties forge alliances. We expect the final slate to be unveiled by mid-January, when some alliances might also be revealed. All polls show Keiko Fujim...

Hack of a Day: First Impressions
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2015

Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet Bottom Line: Very worrisome news, but further escalation or military conflict is not a foregone conclusion… A much-feared development -- because various parties (Russia, U.S., Turkey, etc.) have been operating so close to each other over the Syrian territory --...

A Recession Near-Miss for the South African Economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Nov 2015

On a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annualized basis, growth during Q3 2015 was a paltry 0.7%. Quarter-on-quarter GDP contracted by 1.3% in Q2 2015, and this means that the South African economy managed to escape a recession during Q3 2015, albeit marginally. A recession by South Af...