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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Feb 7
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Brazil Economics databank Jan 16
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Central America databank Jan 28
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Chile databank Dec 3
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Feb 6
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Ecuador databank Jan 21
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Gulf Countries databank Feb 7
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Hungary databank Jan 24
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India databank Jan 24
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Mexico databank Jan 23
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Jan 31
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Philippines databank Feb 7
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Russia Economics databank Jan 15
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South Africa databank Feb 4
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Feb 4
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - NORTH AMERICA TRADE WAR: IMPLICATIONS FOR MEXICO...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
A Storm in a Glass: Mikheil Saakashvili returns to Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Sep 2017
I did not plan to disturb our readers with the story of Saakashvili return but developments appeared to be extremely noisy. So, at the end of July President Poroshenko deprived Mikheil Saakashvili, his former comrade, Ukrainian citizenship. The move did not make much sense since Saakashvili is no...
Week of September 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2017
Rodrigo Janot’s last week at the PGR – he is expected to present a new accusation against President Temer in the next few days. The Lower House tries to conclude a vote on Political Reform. Former President Lula testifies before Judge Sérgio Moro. Last week, former Minister Antonio Palocci provid...
Inflationary Shock
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Sep 2017
On 7 September, president Maduro decreed this year’s fifth minimum wage increase, retroactive to 1 September. The minimum legal income rose by 30 percent, with a 40 percent increase in the minimum wage and 24 percent increase in the food bonus. This year to date, the minimum income has risen by 2...
The Return of Growth: But How Strong?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 11 Sep 2017
In the midst of risks posed by the difficulties of executing the fiscal adjustment and vagaries of the political crisis, the positive contribution of monetary policy deserves attention. The SELIC rate should continue falling, to 7% at the end of the year, when inflation will be 3.2%, well below t...
Economics: Survey Hints at Lower Poverty
MEXICO · Report · 11 Sep 2017
Mexico’s National Statistics Institute updated our understanding of trends in household income and spending, as well as the dynamics of poverty, with the release of its bi-annual National Survey of Household Income and Spending (ENIGH). Unfortunately, the latest report, which was based on data co...
Will the SELIC Rate be 7% at the End of the Easing Cycle in December?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Sep 2017
At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank cut the SELIC rate by 1 percentage point, but made it clear that smaller cuts will occur at subsequent meetings. The market consensus – and our estimate – is that the SELIC rate will reach 7% in December. But will this be the end of the cycle? On the on...
Politics: Potential Shakeups for 2018 Scenarios
MEXICO · Report · 11 Sep 2017 · 1 response
The first hours of the fall session of Congress got off to a rocky start as internal factional strife in one party became enmeshed in a broader dispute over whether the current attorney general would continue to preside over the prosecutorial branch of the criminal justice system for the next nin...
Construction, Exports Drive Q2 Growth
TURKEY · Report · 11 Sep 2017
Turkish economy expanded at a broadly expected 5.1% rate in Q2, y/y, after a similar performance in Q1 (of a slightly upwardly-revised 5.2%). In quarterly/sequential terms, growth accelerated to 2.1% in Q2, up from previous quarter’s 1.3% rate. On the expenditure side, based on year-on-year d...
Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2017
The arrest order by a New York court for the former Economy Minister Mr. Zafer Caglayan could be the harbinger of new tensions between Turkey and the U.S., as well as a period of trouble for the banking industry. Several EU members went on record turning down Germany’s request to end accession ta...
Hurricane Irma caused little damage in the DR
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Sep 2017
Hurricane Irma caused little damage in the DR, mostly in the North Coast. The reason is that its eye, where maximum wind speed is registered (175 mph), passed nearly 75 miles off the coast. Damage was mostly caused by floods by sea waves. Although tourist areas were hit, hotels and facilities wer...
Control issues
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2017
Russia’s leadership had not really expected that a long-delayed response to expulsion of Russian diplomats from the US and Congressional anti-Russian sanctions would be met with yet another move from the US. After Russian diplomatic properties in the US were closed by a US decision, the Kremlin u...
Tense politics yet improving activity
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Sep 2017 · 1 response
After relatively positive results for the government in the recent primary elections, the political heat ahead of the actual midterm elections is increasing, with particularly harsh cross-fire between Cambiemos and the Kirchnerists. In what seems to be an attempt to shift public focus away fr...
The mainstream view on Indian growth is shifting
INDIA · In Brief · 08 Sep 2017 · 1 response
For a sustained period, Ila Patnaik and I have argued that India got into a downturn in 2011 and has not yet come out of it. This was inconsistent with the mainstream discourse. The conventional view of financial firm economists was that growth had crashed with the 2013 currency defense but recov...
Inflation up in August, industrial output growth temporarily (?) down in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2017
Inflation data for August came out marginally higher than market expectation, and pretty much in line with our forecast, this morning. The headline rate jumped to 2.6% yoy, quite sharply up from 2.1% yoy in July, despite just 0.1% rise in the CPI in August alone. Just as we wrote in our previous ...
Record inflation in August, possible slowdown in September
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Sep 2017
We adjust our August estimated monthly inflation rate up to 32.6 percent from 28.0 percent. Year-on-year inflation rises to 748 percent and accumulated inflation for the year through 31 August 2017 rises to 357 percent. The push in August came from a stronger than expected increase in the pric...