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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

How will all this end? A first stab
TURKEY · Report · 20 May 2018

Last week’s developments compelled us to share our thoughts and views on Turkey’s rapidly changing political and economic outlook. As a result, we have opted for a different format in this Weekly Trends, in the first section of which, we ventured to construct a tentative baseline scenario thro...

Being proclaimed is not the same as winning
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 18 May 2018

Elections are around the corner without a clear picture of the results to be expected on Sunday. We hold to our base case that Nicolás Maduro will be proclaimed winner. Nevertheless, his political footing will weaken as a result of doubts surrounding both the electoral outcome and his ability to ...

​Central Bank painkillers
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 18 May 2018

Over the last months, we have been pointing out in our reports about the risky monetary arithmetic the Central Bank has been implementing in its fight against inflation. In short, how it has been sterilizing significant peso emissions caused by the government's dollar debt placement to finance an...

Less EU transfers, more official optimism
HUNGARY · Report · 18 May 2018

The EU Commission’s initial budget proposal for 2021-2027, published in early May, indeed turned out to be rather unfavorable for CEE member states, including Hungary. The EU would spend substantially less on development aid and direct agricultural payments, from which CEE members draw most of th...

A turn of 180 degrees
ECUADOR · Report · 17 May 2018 · 2 responses

Richard Martinez, a young economist who has been linked to the productive sector through the Chamber of Industries and the Ecuadorian Productive Committee, is replacing Maria Elsa Viteri, who was in office only for two months. Viteri had presented the economic program for this and the next three ...

Hyperinflation worsens
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 May 2018

Our monthly inflation rate forecast for May and June 2018 is 102 percent and 110 percent. Demand for money collapses as expectations deteriorate in the face of growing political pressures and macroeconomic imbalances. Accumulated inflation in the first semester 2018 rises to 4,583 percent and the...

Forecasting Chinese commodity prices
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 May 2018

Chinese commodity price index predictive factors Chinese commodity price indexes can be predicted based on several indicators from the previous months. Indexes that can be determined include China's Basic Commodity Price Index, China's Energy Price Index, and China's Steel Price Index. The pre...

Strike by construction labor union is hurting economic growth
PANAMA · In Brief · 16 May 2018

Workers of the powerful construction union (SUNTRACS) and the private sector Panamanian Chamber of Construction (CAPAC) are negotiating a four-year wage raise. After 28 days of strike, SUNTRACS recently announced that they will not accept the arbitrage procedure requested by CAPAC (and urged by P...

Correction
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 May 2018

In my market brief of this morning I've inadvertedly promoted Mr Hakan Atilla to the position of CEO of Halkbank. He was deputy CEO or Assistant GM of the said bank, prior ot his arrest.Apologies Atilla Yesilada

​The import of Erdogan’s Bloomberg interview
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 May 2018

Tuesday’s panic attack in TL assets is now a world-leading story, which deserves little description. I also agree with the view that it is largely to be blamed on Erdogan’s controversial comments regarding interest rates, CBRT and the Hakan Atilla-cum-Halkbank case in the US. I am writing this pe...

New Minister of Finance
ECUADOR · In Brief · 15 May 2018

Maria Elsa Viteri is the first casualty from the intentional cabinet crisis provoked by president Moreno who last week requested the resignation from all ministers and other high government officers. This is a customary action taken by presidents usually in December of every year, but in this cas...

China may impose property taxes soon
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 May 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • There is a new round of speculation about Beijing’s intentions concerning property taxes. Some analysts suggest that we may see taxes implemented as soon as 2019, and a first draft of a tax bill released later this year. • The real estate market crea...

Economics: A lid remains on labor productivity
MEXICO · Report · 15 May 2018

Labor productivity data for 2017 showed productivity only experienced tepid growth that was generally in line with the average 0.3% increase of the past 10 years. Despite the current administration’s stated commitment to stimulating labor productivity as one of the fundamental keys to economic ex...

Q1 GDP +4.7% yoy: past the peak, but descended just a little bit so far
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 May 2018

GDP expanded by 4.7% yoy on sda basis in Q1 2018 (the unadjusted number was +4.4%), slightly down from 4.9% yoy in Q4. This will make largely everyone happy, as:- analysts expected +4.2% on average, according to Portfolio.hu, though within a very wide, 3.8-5% range;- the government expects 4.3% g...

Politics: Presidential race tightens post debate
MEXICO · Report · 14 May 2018 · 1 response

A series of GEA-ISA polls conducted since early March and following the April 22 presidential candidates’ debate point to a tightening race in which people appear more open to changing their choice of candidate and more convinced that this is shaping up to be a tight race. Obviously perceptio...

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