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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A turn of 180 degrees
ECUADOR · Report · 17 May 2018 · 2 responses

Richard Martinez, a young economist who has been linked to the productive sector through the Chamber of Industries and the Ecuadorian Productive Committee, is replacing Maria Elsa Viteri, who was in office only for two months. Viteri had presented the economic program for this and the next three ...

Hyperinflation worsens
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 May 2018

Our monthly inflation rate forecast for May and June 2018 is 102 percent and 110 percent. Demand for money collapses as expectations deteriorate in the face of growing political pressures and macroeconomic imbalances. Accumulated inflation in the first semester 2018 rises to 4,583 percent and the...

Forecasting Chinese commodity prices
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 May 2018

Chinese commodity price index predictive factors Chinese commodity price indexes can be predicted based on several indicators from the previous months. Indexes that can be determined include China's Basic Commodity Price Index, China's Energy Price Index, and China's Steel Price Index. The pre...

Strike by construction labor union is hurting economic growth
PANAMA · In Brief · 16 May 2018

Workers of the powerful construction union (SUNTRACS) and the private sector Panamanian Chamber of Construction (CAPAC) are negotiating a four-year wage raise. After 28 days of strike, SUNTRACS recently announced that they will not accept the arbitrage procedure requested by CAPAC (and urged by P...

Correction
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 May 2018

In my market brief of this morning I've inadvertedly promoted Mr Hakan Atilla to the position of CEO of Halkbank. He was deputy CEO or Assistant GM of the said bank, prior ot his arrest.Apologies Atilla Yesilada

​The import of Erdogan’s Bloomberg interview
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 May 2018

Tuesday’s panic attack in TL assets is now a world-leading story, which deserves little description. I also agree with the view that it is largely to be blamed on Erdogan’s controversial comments regarding interest rates, CBRT and the Hakan Atilla-cum-Halkbank case in the US. I am writing this pe...

New Minister of Finance
ECUADOR · In Brief · 15 May 2018

Maria Elsa Viteri is the first casualty from the intentional cabinet crisis provoked by president Moreno who last week requested the resignation from all ministers and other high government officers. This is a customary action taken by presidents usually in December of every year, but in this cas...

China may impose property taxes soon
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 May 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • There is a new round of speculation about Beijing’s intentions concerning property taxes. Some analysts suggest that we may see taxes implemented as soon as 2019, and a first draft of a tax bill released later this year. • The real estate market crea...

Economics: A lid remains on labor productivity
MEXICO · Report · 15 May 2018

Labor productivity data for 2017 showed productivity only experienced tepid growth that was generally in line with the average 0.3% increase of the past 10 years. Despite the current administration’s stated commitment to stimulating labor productivity as one of the fundamental keys to economic ex...

Q1 GDP +4.7% yoy: past the peak, but descended just a little bit so far
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 May 2018

GDP expanded by 4.7% yoy on sda basis in Q1 2018 (the unadjusted number was +4.4%), slightly down from 4.9% yoy in Q4. This will make largely everyone happy, as:- analysts expected +4.2% on average, according to Portfolio.hu, though within a very wide, 3.8-5% range;- the government expects 4.3% g...

Politics: Presidential race tightens post debate
MEXICO · Report · 14 May 2018 · 1 response

A series of GEA-ISA polls conducted since early March and following the April 22 presidential candidates’ debate point to a tightening race in which people appear more open to changing their choice of candidate and more convinced that this is shaping up to be a tight race. Obviously perceptio...

Trade deficit widens, CA surplus expected to contract this year
ISRAEL · Report · 14 May 2018

Macro fundamentals are less shekel supportive due to a shrinking CA surplus (growing trade deficit). In March, Israeli institutions increased their demand for FX by 1.3bn USD. We expect inflation to reach 0.4% m/m in April and 0.5% m/m in May (mostly seasonal as well as some shekel weakness and h...

The importance of the internet and social media in the electoral process and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2018

President Michel Temer is holding a ministerial cabinet meeting on Tuesday, May 15, to review the government’s past two years and to decide what must be addressed by the end of the year. In the Lower House, representatives may conclude voting on the amendments to the bill on the positive registry...

The end of the cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 May 2018 · 2 responses

Whether the Central Bank will cut the SELIC rate by 25 basis points at the next COPOM meeting or not will only be known next Wednesday. But in either case, that meeting will mark the end of the current easing cycle. The deprecation of exchange rate last week was in large part (although not totall...

Dark tunnels, approaching lights
TURKEY · Report · 13 May 2018

With six candidates certified to contest the election, Erdogan remains our favorite to win in the second round. Yet, a new trick by the opposition alliance and a potential swing of the Kurdish vote towards his rival could make him sweat. In general elections, our poll-of-polls table suggests A...

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