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Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 11 Feb 2018

As Turkey and its allied militia slowly but surely advanced into Kurdish-held Syrian canton of Afrin, President Erdogan unveiled an ambitious plan to resettle Syrian refugees along the border, which reinforces our view that Turkey intends to stay in Syria for the long haul. The plan is clever, bu...

No choice election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2018

Russia’s leadership was surprised to see the list of people associated with the Kremlin that was prepared for the US Congress at the end of January because of the lack of depth and detail of the list. However, there is a dominating expectation that more sanctions will eventually follow, and the c...

The government can still reverse the boomerang effect on expectations of the new inflation target
ARGENTINA · Report · 07 Feb 2018

Heightened uncertainty about monetary policy after the change in the inflation target has increased expected inflation for 2018; however, the government can still reverse the undesired effect of this new inflation target (15% per year), announced on December 28. The President of the Central Ba...

One swallow doesn’t make a summer
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Feb 2018

We revise down our monthly inflation rate for January 2018 to 82 percent based on new information available. This is below our December estimate (90 percent) and our preliminary forecast for January (112 percent). This slowdown is temporary, in our view, and mainly reflects the reduction in food ...

(Failing to) fake out the IMF
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Feb 2018

Relations with the IMF have become a real headache for the presidential administration. Ukraine’s creditors have made it clear that an independent anti-corruption court is a must. The president’s office has tried to circumvent that demand, by submitting a bill to the Verkhovna Rada that set unrea...

Zuma exit: chaos, confusion and political drama
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2018

Yesterday SA’s governing party, the ANC, was thrown into a deep blend of mixed messages, ambiguous optimism, and unprecedented actions. First there was an announcement for an emergency meeting of the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC), to be convened on behest of the Party’s president, Mr C...

COSTA RICA: Undecided voters overturned the election results
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 06 Feb 2018

Our January 24 report explained in detail the main elements of February 4 presidential and congressional elections, including the survey results at that moment. Given the high volatility of political support due to the large proportion of undecided voters, we didn’t make any guess on the possible...

Is the end of the cycle in sight?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Feb 2018

In this report we provide a brief review of the tendencies for inflation and GDP growth in 2018. Despite the projection for expansion of GDP, by around 3%, the GDP gap is still negative, and even with the real interest rate below its neutral level, inflation will converge to the target of 4.5%. H...

2018 is looking like 2017
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 06 Feb 2018

Thanks to significant economic recovery in Q4, real GDP growth in 2017 was 4.6%. Until September, economic activity was falling, and running at a cumulative 3.9%. In December, y/y inflation climbed to 4.2%, still within the 4.0% ± 1.0% target range. Inflation returned to normal levels, as the pos...

Inflation rises
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Feb 2018

The inflation rate rose to 4% in January, exceeding the 3.5% median analyst forecast for the month. Data show a full 1% increase in average January prices over the December price level, with notable increases in food prices, particularly fish and vegetables, apparently weather-related, and a rang...

Zuma's era ending soon
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 06 Feb 2018 · 1 response

The SA Parliament just announced that the Paliament's opening and the State of the Nation Address (SONA) 2018 are postponed until further notice. This is the first concrete sign that Zuma is unlikely to address the Parliament anymore. Earlier today, the Presidency announced that Zuma has summoned...

Economics: Nafta progress, but low visibility
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2018

One could imagine a huge sigh of relief surrounding the end of the sixth round of Nafta re-negotiations. Not only had the US government not used the occasion to pull out of the treaty altogether, as some observers had earlier feared, but the talks in Montreal produced what even the US trade repre...

What is the necessary fiscal effort: Brazil in relation to the world
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2018

The objective of this Special Report is to compare Brazil’s behavior in relation to the large majority of countries in a particular field of fiscal policy execution, that of “fiscal effort”, defined as the variation in the primary result necessary to stabilize the public debt in relation to GDP. ...

Week of February 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2018

With the end of the parliamentary recess, the priority on the legislative agenda is Pension Reform. The rapporteur, Arthur Maia (PPS-BA), will present the new text on Tuesday, February 6. Former President Lula will launch his presidential pre-candidacy in Belo Horizonte on February 7. Luiz Fux ta...

Is today the first day of Lenin´s administration?
ECUADOR · In Brief · 05 Feb 2018

For many Ecuadorians today is the first day of Lenin Moreno´s administration even though eight months have already elapsed, albeit without establishing clear paths for top national priorities. In fact, the national vote favored the "seven times yes" promoted by the government ‒ including the two ...

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