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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Sticking to Our Low-Growth Guns
MEXICO · Report · 05 Nov 2015

A surprising rise in the monthly GDP proxy for August showed a rebound in the 12-month growth rate, for both the seasonally adjusted (+2.8%) and the original series (+2.6%). The expansion was led by a 7.7% rise in primary sector output and, more importantly, a 3.4% increase in tertiary activity. ...

You say you'll change the constitution. Well, you know.
CHILE · Report · 04 Nov 2015

Arguing that the current constitution is illegitimate, President Michelle Bachelet has outlined the process and timeline for drafting a new one. It will consist of several stages, including public consultation and a congressional decision on an approval mechanism. While the president’s insiste...

Minister Herrera Assures Payment of Global Bonds 2015
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Nov 2015

Minister of Finance Fausto Herrera announced today that financing needs for next year's budget will be around $6.6 billion. According to the Minister sources for $4.5 billion are already identified: $2 b coming from multilateral institutions (World Bank, IDB, CAF) and $1.5b from China. The govern...

Holding Pattern
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 04 Nov 2015

Anyone tracking the Philippine economy would by now have his eyes on May 9, 2016.More than who will be the next president, the key question for Election Day 2016 is, will he or she have a clear mandate that is beyond challenge?Also, while we expect to see general commitment to policy continuity w...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Nov 2015

The grave and complicated political impasse between the executive and legislative branches has been charging a high price regarding the quality of fiscal policy, aggravating inflation and undermining business and consumer confidence and economic growth.

Political Revenge Squelched
UKRAINE · Report · 04 Nov 2015

Local elections didn’t bring widely expected revenge of populist and pro-Russian parties. Still, the October vote underscored a few interesting trends. First, there was no dominant winner. Though national parties led the pack, dozens of local political forces entered local councils, creating a mi...

MNB announced a new program to boost bank lending to SMEs
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Nov 2015

Just as expected, the MNB announced today a variety of new policies, with a view to boosting cheap bank lending to SMEs from January 2016. The program, called Growth Supporting Program (GSP) includes HUF 600n (1.7% of GDP) in new, zero-interest refinancing loans to banks, half in HUF, half denomi...

Recession and Strong External Adjustment
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 03 Nov 2015

In 2015 GDP will contract by 3.1% and another 2.7% in 2016. Negative quarterly growth rates should prevail until at least the middle of 2016, meaning the present recession will be one of the longest and deepest in the country’s history. The primary fiscal deficit will be 1.4% of GDP this year,...

Week of November 3
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2015

The 2015 primary surplus target and the 2016 Budget are the highlights in Congress. Nelson Barbosa will send a document to Congress with an additional R$ 26 billion in cuts for 2016. In the House, there will be another attempt to vote on the repatriation bill. The rapporteur for the case against ...

A Strong External Adjustment
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Nov 2015

Unlike in many past crises faced by Brazil, the current one does not involve a balance of payments problem. Contrary to the several past episodes, Brazil now has a high level of international reserves and is experiencing a substantial decline in its current account deficit. In past crises, such a...

Politics leads the headlines. The economy maintains a steady pace.
PANAMA · Report · 03 Nov 2015

Economic growth continues but at a slower pace, according to the Monthly Index Economic Activity (IMAE), which grew 3.8% in August and experienced a 4.0% increase during the first eight months of the year compared with 2014. Transportation, financial intermediation and construction are the sector...

Inflation: Food Down, Core Up
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2015

Consumer prices rose by 1.55%, m/m, in October broadly in line with expectations. This has reduced the 12-month rate to 7.6% from 7.9% in September, thanks to the base effect from last year’s markedly higher food prices. The latter eased to 8.7%, y/y, from 10.7% in September. D-PPI also fell to 5...

Growth May Revive in Mid-2016
CHINA · Forecast · 02 Nov 2015

We expect growth to be low but stable, with the already-loose monetary and fiscal policy leading to strengthening. We therefore foresee a growth rebound in mid-2016. Meanwhile, GDP growth and fixed asset investment both fell in Q3, and producer prices fell further, continuing to deflate. GDP was ...

Back to Single Party Government
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Nov 2015

Hi All: Murat here, filling in for Atilla Yesilada, sharing very briefly his first impressions on today’s AK Party victory. Facts: According to the preliminary results, AK Party won, quite unexpectedly, some 49% of the votes, winning around 312 seats in parliament, up from 258 in June (see table ...

Another political arrest: will it become fatal mistake for Poroshenko?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Oct 2015

Breaking news was released on Saturday morning. The authorities arrested Gennadiy Korban, one of the leaders of political party UKROP (funded by Igor Kolomoysky). Officially he was blamed in organizing criminal group. In reality, the main crime of UKROP was their result on mayor’s elections in Dn...

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