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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Vertigo
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 May 2015

Yesterday, May 21, the price of the dollar in the parallel market broke the barrier of 400 bolivars per dollar in one of the sources we monitor. The average of the five sources we follow jumped 10.7 percent in the day, 25.2 percent in the week, 34.7 percent in the first three weeks of May, 123.1 ...

Openness Driving Reforms
CHINA · Report · 22 May 2015

Executive Summary With an abrupt single day’s notice, the Central Bank on May 11th cut its benchmark interest rates for loans and deposits by 25 bp, and expanded the floating interval from 1.3 times interest rates to 1.5 times. These measures came in response to new weak growth data. We expect mo...

KONDA poll shakes markets
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 May 2015 · 5 responses

For right or wrong, the KONDA polling and market research agency is considered the most accurate among poll watchers. Today’s afternoon sell-off is not related to American first claims data, as widely reported in Turkish financial press or some investment banking commentary but the release (for p...

Too Little, Too Late
ECUADOR · Report · 21 May 2015

Executive Summary It has taken the government more than six months to recognize that the oil price slide is not temporary, and that structural changes in the industry likewise require structural changes in its macroeconomic approach. President Rafael Correa has finally announced that he will purc...

GDP growth for Q1 2015 reported at 6.5%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 May 2015 · 3 responses

The Central Bank reported that the Dominican economy recorded an outstanding 6.5% GDP growth in Q1 2015 compared to the same period in 2014. This is the highest rate of economic growth in the region when compared to forecasts. Panama is the second highest with 5.1% followed by Guatemala (4.4%), H...

Continuity versus Change
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 21 May 2015

Executive Summary Recent opinion polls do not dismiss the possibility that Daniel Scioli could be elected President in the first round of the October election. Mauricio Macri and Sergio Massa, and some other less relevant candidates, are still competing for the non-Kirchnerist vote, which accordi...

Economics: Remittance Recovery Continues
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2015

Executive Summary In 2014 Mexico set a new post 2008-2009 record for the volume of remittances it received. In dollars, such inflows grew by 8% compared to the previous year, to total US$23.65 billion. This growth trend extended through the first quarter of 2015, with remittances rising by anothe...

Politics: How the Race is Shaping Up
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2015

Executive Summary In just under three weeks voters in all 31 states and the Federal District will head to the polls to elect their congressional representatives. Simultaneously there will be state legislative and/or municipal contests in roughly half of those states, including nine that will elec...

Lira Is All That Matters, Redux
TURKEY · Report · 20 May 2015

Today, as expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept all short term-interest rates unchanged (see graph). The only difference from the previous MPC statement concerns the belated inclusion of a sentence on the adverse impact of lira weakness on core inflation dynamics (“…recently elevated...

Cabinet requests Parliament to allow imposing moratorium on external debt repayments
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 May 2015 · 1 response

The Cabinet intends to submit to the parliament a draft law which should allow the Cabinet to impose moratorium on external debt repayments, media reported today. This move followed a series of messages from Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko about complicated process of negotiations. Does it mean ...

Amid Struggle Between Titans, Opposition PRM Rises
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 19 May 2015

Executive Summary The economy grew by a robust 6% in Q1, with accumulated inflation only 0.64%, the Central Bank reported. Currency pressures declined in March, pushing net international reserves up slightly, while tax revenues rose in line with nominal GDP growth rates. Spending also accelerated...

Is Beijing backsliding on rebalancing?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 18 May 2015

Yes and no. The PBoC cut lending and deposit rates May 10, but raised the deposit ceiling and pressured banks to maintain deposit rates. They’re trying to rebalance but it's tough. Growth was probably unexpectedly low, but for the past 3-4 years I've said growth must grind lower because Beijing c...

How Far Will the Current Monetary Tightening Go?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 May 2015

The market is reacting to the signals sent by the Central Bank and expects a continuing increase in the interest rate. Last week the yield curve indicated that the market expects the SELIC rate to be raised by 50 basis points at the next COPOM meeting, and that this would not be the last hike. Af...

Week of May 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2015

The fiscal austerity measures remain on the political agenda. The House may vote on the bill on payroll tax exemptions and on MP 668/15 (PIS and Cofins for imports). In the Senate, analysis of MP 665/14, on unemployment insurance and salary bonuses, is on the agenda. By Friday, the government wil...

Without an External Impulse, the Recession Will be Longer
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 May 2015

Executive Summary Brazil has entered a recession in which, because of the high inflation and the need for fiscal adjustment, the authorities cannot use counter-cyclical measures. And unlike the recession of 2008-2009, the country cannot count on an impulse from abroad either. With the apprecia...

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