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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Internal Market Takes Off
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The positive dynamic we observed in private consumption over the course of the second half of 2014 extended through the first quarter of 2015. Diverse variables have contributed to the extension of that positive trend. For starters, the economy’s formal sector wage mass grew by ...

Fiscal grievances and setbacks in Havana
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Private consumption and investment were the key drivers of economic activity in 2014: household consumption was up a faster 5.1% in Q4, despite spending slowdown driven by the deteriorated oil outlook. The consumption of non-durables (33% of total consumption) expanded by 4.5%; ...

Government Under Pressure, but Can Still Win
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary With most polls showing the opposition more than 30 percentage points ahead of the PSUV, the official party will be hard pressed to win December’s legislative elections. International pressure to free political prisoners and allow observers to monitor the elections is growing. T...

A Lull in the Barrage of Bad News
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Domestic tensions eased significantly in March and April. While economic problems and the military threat are still on the agenda, a dearth of breaking news from the Eastern front, and a strengthening of the hryvnia (to 22 per $1, from 30 in February) relieved the generally depr...

Successes and Conflicts in Executing the Adjustment: What’s Next?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Four months have passed since the start of President Rousseff’s second term, and the greatest hope is on Joaquim Levy’s capacity to reverse the unfavorable inherited situation. The fiscal adjustment is under way, and initial hopes were that its execution, along with a weaker ...

A Semblance of Stability
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Apr 2015

Executive Summary A semblance of stability has been felt by the Indonesian business community since the rupiah strengthened a bit against the US dollar, at least narrowing the currency losses seen during the first quarter of the year. However, at the same time, business executives have also fe...

The Signs Sent by the Latest Data on New Consumer Lending
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2015

With the economy in recession and unemployment rising, the natural expectation was that banks would be more conservative in extending new loans, with negative reflections on household consumption. However, the figures on new lending for the first quarter this year show expansion in relation to th...

Week of April 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2015

The House committees analyzing the fiscal austerity provisional measures may vote on the measures. In the Senate, the index for state and municipal debt with the federal government may be voted upon. The Central Bank sets the benchmark interest rate.President Dilma Rousseff will consider making a...

Minimum wage policy in 2015
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Apr 2015

In coming days President Maduro will be announcing the minimum wage increase for May 1, Labor Day. The government’s urgency to regain public support ahead of the elections will lead to stronger and more frequent minimum wage increases this year. Our base case for 2015 is that Maduro will raise mi...

Yuan Appreciation is Hurting Manufacturing
CHINA · Report · 27 Apr 2015

Executive Summary GDP growth hit a new low in Q1, with its 7% y/y rise just a 0.3 pp uptick from Q4 2014. Value added for major industrial firms rose only 6.4% y/y, down 1.2 pps from Q4. Industrial output growth took the biggest hit, falling to 5.6% y/y in March. Retail sales of social consumptio...

Abinader defeats Mejia by a landslide in Presidental nomination bid
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 27 Apr 2015

Yesterday, the Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM) elected its Presidential nominee for the 2016 general elections. According to the second bulletin released by the National Organizing Commission of the PRM convention, Luís Abinader defeated former President Hipólito Mejía by a landslide. Abinad...

Macri’s favorite wins primaries in the City of Buenos Aires
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2015 · 2 responses

In yesterday’s simultaneous primary election (PASO) in the City of Buenos Aires, Horacio Larreta, Macri’s favorite, won the PROs primaries, with a significant difference ahead of his direct competitor, Gabriela Michetti, or any other candidates from different parties, for that matter. At current ...

To Elections, On Choppy Waters
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Ceteris paribus turned out to be a pretty bad assumption to make, with Turkey underperforming its peers significantly so far in the year despite the boon of a sharply dropping oil price. Post-election uncertainties that have begun to dawn on investors and the ongoing pressures o...

Akhmetov arranges ‘miners’ protests’
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Apr 2015

Last week we witnessed very interesting event. On Thursday April 23 Kyiv was flooded with thousands of people of strange appearance which called themselves miners. From news releases we learned that ‘miners started their strike against closing of state coal-mines’. Activists and journalists tried...

Assessing the latest MNB rate cut and fiscal announcements
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2015

That the MNB reduced its base rate by 15 bps to 1.8% on April 21 was almost a non-event in the sense that essentially everyone on the market expected exactly this. That the rate cut had absolutely no immediate impact on the EURHUF exchange rate, which has been stuck in a narrow 297-302 range over...

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