GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Today Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, made it clear that Ukraine will not get money without resolving corruption issue. This statement will add fuel to the fire of political crisis which is unfolding at the country. Political elites are disoriented. They have never experienced th...

Will Turkey send her military to Syria?

TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2016

I felt the need to revisit the question of a Turkish military intervention in Syria because in the last 24 hours the linked articles in Business Insider, Financial Times and WSJ mentioned the possibility in different contexts. While there are many reasons why Turkish markets were sinking until to...

Simian Flu

PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 08 Feb 2016

The Year of the Monkey finds the world in poor spirits, one eye monitoring the vital signs of its weaker members, the other eye scanning for symptoms of compromised immune systems elsewhere. While the Philippines is not resistant to the malady’s spread, the economy has internal sources of growth ...

FPV desertion ahead of debt restructuring agreement

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2016

The recent desertion of 12 congressional representatives from the Kirchnerist party “Frente para la Victoria” (FPV) to form, together with other 3 dissident peronists, a 15 man strong non-K Peronist block (Bloque Justicialista - BJ), might not be very surprising. We anticipated such political shi...

Debt restructuring negotiations

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2016

Many expectations were set on this government’s debt restructuring proposal for Holdouts. As might have been expected, contrary to the former Kirchnerist proposals, Macri’s team did not refer to the 2005/2010 debt restructuring conditions, nor did it discuss the principal of the debt owed. With a...

Week of February 7

TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2016

After the collapse of Geneva peace talks, pro-Assad forces redoubled their efforts to lay siege to Aleppo, pushing 70K refugees towards Turkey. As another great human tragedy unfolds in the neighbor, the fall of Aleppo could trigger a series of events that could spell diplomatic disaster for Turk...

2016 starts with strong inflation

VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Feb 2016

On 15 January 2016, BCV published inflation data for the first three quarters of 2015. The Bank reported 108.7 percent in the year to September and 141.5 percent YOY. These results came out below our forecast (157.1 percent for January-September and 197.5 percent YOY.)

Can Nothing Be Done?

MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2016

While economic signals were mixed, economic news in January was overshadowed by a further devaluation of the peso. Until oil prices have clearly bottomed out, we expect the currency to keep weakening. Though these two phenomena are clearly beyond Mexican control, this does not imply that the prob...

Abromavichus’ resignation triggers chain reaction

UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Feb 2016

Resignation of the Minister of Economy Ayvaras Abromavichus triggered a real political avalanche. Ambassadors of ten countries (G-7, Switzerland, Sweden and Lithuania) expressed deep disappointment with the resignation. Public opinion leaders stood strongly in support of Abromavichus. Ex-official...

Geneva talks suspended, Ankara worried

TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Feb 2016

After only a few brief indirect meetings with the involved parties, U.N. special envoy Stefan de Mistura threw in the towel, announcing late last night that Syrian peace talks “were temporarily suspended” until 25th of February, which in my view causes great concern to Ankara. While de Mistura wa...

Core Inflation Just Short of Double-Digit

TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2016

Consumer prices increased by 1.8% in January, broadly in line with expectations, which raised the 12-month rate further to 9.6%, from 8.8% in December, with the increase mainly stemming from administrative price hikes and food prices . More importantly, the 12-month core inflation (I-index) conti...

Ministry of Economy resigns blaming top officials in corruptions

UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Feb 2016

Ministry of Economy Ayvaras Abromavichus publicly informed about his decision to resign. He claimed that he is under extreme pressure and people from ruling group (he named Igor Kononenko, one of the eminence grises, formally Deputy Head of Block of Perto Poroshenko party) are demanding him to ap...

Another Tough Year Ahead

UKRAINE · Report · 02 Feb 2016

January was a relatively silent month, especially after an intense December, with tax changes and the budget 2016 on agenda.The public was primarily preoccupied with resurgent FX volatility, while politicians have been actively discussing the possibility of early parliamentary elections. In Ja...

When China sneezes...

CHILE · Report · 02 Feb 2016

January’s global market volatility had strong implications for the Chilean economy.Fortunately, it appears that at least some of the turmoil was an over-reaction. We will know the actual damage to the real economy later this year, when we have data for the first quarter. In November the Monthl...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Feb 2016

The country continues to suffer the effects of the worst recession in the past 30 years. The impossibility of putting the economy on a growth path without adopting reforms that reduce the upward trend of government spending and interrupt the unsustainable rise of the public debt, combined with th...