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Exit-Polls: Poroshenko Wins in First Round. Tough Work on Civil Control is Ahead.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 May 2014

Petro Poroshenko gets 55.9% in first round according to the National Exit-Poll. Real results might differ but we already know the name of fifth Ukrainian president. The good news is that after inauguration more decisive actions at the eastern Ukraine could be launched. The bad news is that Petro ...

Weekly Tracker: May 25-31
TURKEY · Report · 25 May 2014

Executive Summary It is not official but Erdogan’s speech in Cologne suggests he is serious about Presidency. The opposition is yet to find a match for him, but we still don’t concede victory to Erdogan. The death of yet another Alevite Turk at the hands of the police during week and the sudden e...

Elections: Poroshenko Might Win in First Round. ‘Cleaning’ East, New Parliament Elections and Real Decentralization are the First Steps Ukrainians Demand
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 May 2014

The main intrigue of president elections 2014 – whether Petro Poroshenko wins in first round or he needs second round to get his prize. Surveys (mid-May) in one voice give him the victory in this way or another and it is very unlikely that the final result will be too much different. It is not th...

It’s Getting Chilly
CHILE · Report · 23 May 2014

Executive Summary The perspectives for the economy in the short term are not catastrophic, but neither very encouraging. Investment has sharply decelerated, consumption growth is moderating, the labor market is deteriorating and inflation has increased. But record-low real interest rates, stro...

Squelching and Environmental Referendum
ECUADOR · Report · 23 May 2014

Executive Summary This year hasn’t started off well, for either the govenrment or its citizens. The government was stung by its party’s lackluster victories in local elections, and for the first time in seven years must cope with dwindling funds. And citizens concerned about the evironmmental eff...

Showcasing the Philippines
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 May 2014

This week, the Philippines hosted this year's World Economic Forum for East Asia to much fanfare and self-congratulating back patting. The event could not have come at a better time with the country boasting of a 7.2% GDP growth last year, "next only to China", and the S&P just the other week vou...

Law that recognizes citizenship to descendant of irregular migrants approved by Congress
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 May 2014

After months of heated national debate and stiff pressure from the international community, last week President Medina submitted to Congress a bill aimed at recognizing citizenship to descendent of migrants born in the country who were properly registered in the Civil Registry and hold birth cert...

two important milestones for the 4G infrastructure plan
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 22 May 2014

1. The State Council, one of Colombia's high courts, lifted the freeze it had imposed on the process to sell the National Government's stake in Isagén. The new timeline to complete this process will be released by the Ministry of Finance in a very short period of time. The resources resulting fro...

The Rise Of External Debt?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 May 2014

Executive Summary There have been cases in recent history in which a country experiencing “miracle” growth – driven by domestic investment that, in late stages, tends increasingly to misallocation – has reached domestic debt capacity constraints, only to replace domestic funding with external fun...

I Am An Excellent, Excellent Driver
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2014

Contrary to our – and most analysts’ -- expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee cut the one-week repo rate by 50 bps today to 9.5%, while it kept the O/N lending and borrowing rates unchanged (see chart). This cut is significant because the one-week repo rate has regained its prevalence as th...

No Hike in the Benchmark Interest Rate…For Now
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 May 2014

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has opted to leave the repo rate at 5.5% per year (see Graph 1). The Bank cited a challenging environment characterized by a weak domestic economy coupled with elevated price pressures as factors that informed its stance. Gra...

El Salvador: Falling to Earth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 May 2014

Executive SummaryWith the June 1 Inauguration Day approaching, President-elect Salvador Sánchez is being forced to face financial realities. Though he’s built bridges with various sectors and laid the groundwork for a favorable domestic climate, recent data make clear that the budget lacks funds,...

Medina Most Popular of All
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 21 May 2014

Executive Summary Even two years before the 2016 presidential elections, prospective candidates for the two main political parties are beginning to place in the polls. As expected, former president Leonel Fernández is the most popular prospective PLD candidate so far, according to the most recent...

Political Reform At Last
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2014

Executive Summary Last week Congress approved an overhaul of the country’s electoral laws to bring them in keeping with the relevant constitutional amendments passed last year, thereby eliminating the possibility that the 2015 midterm elections might be held in some kind of legal limbo. In the pr...

Breaking Down the NIP
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2014

Executive Summary This week we continue our analysis of the National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) for 2014-2018. In aggregate terms, investment is projected to average 8% of annual GDP and 37% of total investment (gross fixed capital formation). Those numbers imply that the ratio of total investment...