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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Recent data points to a more robust Israel economy
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Aug 2016

Economic data released last week suggest fairly strong growth in 1H16 GDP growth reached 2.9% in 1H16 following 2.0% in 2H15. Q216 growth reached 3.7% SAAR and 2.9% y-o-y. Private consumption accelerated to 9.5% SAAR in Q216 on strong durable demand. Industrial exports are up 8.8% in Q2, and inve...

Inflation is unscathed
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Aug 2016

Over a month ago, the government launched the Mission for Sovereign and Secure Supplies. So far, efforts to improve the distribution of basic consumer products managed to get some goods to the shelves in the government’s establishments but informal markets and price dynamics remain intact.

IP accelerates, job market tightens
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2016

Industrial production in Q2 increased 5.9% (SAAR) following growth of 4.9% in Q1. The high tech sector witnessed expanded 14.7% following 4.3% respectively. The non-high tech sector witnessed contraction of 2.2% in Q2 following growth of 4.2% in Q1. The number of workers in industry increased by ...

2Q16 GDP grew 7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Aug 2016

Government announced today that the economy grew 7% in 2Q16, in line with what we expected. The economy’s growth performance may be traced to the following factors: Investments in a broad range of durable equipment (+43%), particularly road vehicles; Consumption (+7.3%), boosted by election spend...

One More Reform. But is There Time?
CHILE · Report · 17 Aug 2016

President Bachelet's pension reform proposals both fit and break a pattern. As with previous reforms, the government appears to be bending to longstanding popular discontent, this time with the existing individual pension accounts and their administrators, known by their Spanish acronym as "AFPs"...

Economics: Making Sense of the Trump Phenomenon
MEXICO · Report · 17 Aug 2016

One of the factors injecting the greatest sense of uncertainty into the decisions of economic agents in Mexico (producers, investors and consumers) is the election campaign that is currently taking place in the United States. The threats being made by Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, agains...

Inauguration speech and Cabinet reshuffling signaling continuity rather than innovation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Aug 2016

Yesterday, Danilo Medina was proclaimed President for a new term. In short, his inauguration speech points towards policy continuity and very few innovations or ruptures. Most of the speech was devoted to outline social achievements of the past term and new goals for the next four years. For that...

GDP Growth Sharply Higher in Q2
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Aug 2016

GDP recovered from its Q1 debacle and showed surprisingly robust growth in Q2. The main contributors were services, probably on consumer demand, and agriculture, due to a positive supply shock. Construction also started to recover on q-o-q basis. But even so, growth was quite weak on the whole in...

Politics: Murders Show Institutional Weakness
MEXICO · Report · 16 Aug 2016

In the past month, three mayors and a former mayor have been killed. This is not, unfortunately, a new phenomenon. In the past decade, 86 mayors, former mayors, and municipal or town council members have been assassinated. Equally unfortunate is the fact that this is just the tip of the iceberg, ...

Growth accelerates in Q216
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2016

GDP growth for the second quarter of this year surprised on the upside, reaching 3.7% SAAR; almost double market expectations. Growth was rather broad based with private consumption up 9.5%, public consumption up 8.7%, exports up 3.8%, residential investments up 2.9% and business sector (non-resi...

Turkish Politics: Fine at Home, Getting Tricky Abroad
TURKEY · Report · 16 Aug 2016 · 1 response

At the one month anniversary of the coup attempt, I find myself increasingly removed from what I view as the majority view about Turkish politics. At home, I remain a relative optimist regarding the future of democracy. Abroad, a strategic alliance with Russia or Iran remains a pipedream. Turkey...

Feeding Inflation and Recession
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Aug 2016 · 1 response

The minimum wage increase announced by President Maduro on August 12 enters into effect in two weeks. It’s the third hike imposed by decree this year and brings about a 50 percent increase in the minimum wage and a 129 percent increase in the food bonus. The monthly total minimum income rises by ...

Costly to Sovereignty
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Aug 2016

Central Bank President Diego Martinez continues to deny that Ecuador is experiencing an economic crisis, and prefers to call the 3% of GDP plunge in Q1 a “cooling down of the economy,” due mostly to external factors.He also seemed confident that H2 would bring recovery, and only 2.5% shrinkage, a...

Inflation surprises on the upside as housing rental prices accelerate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Aug 2016

Inflation in July surprised on the upside, reaching -0.6% y-o-y (we had expected -0.8%) and 0.4% m-o-m. Granted, this is a seasonally high CPI but the acceleration of housing prices (rental equivalents) to 2.4% y-o-y from 1.9% last month explains the higher inflation y-o-y. Although this is a vol...

Inflation: When Will it Start to Fall More Intensely?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Aug 2016 · 4 responses

​With the Central Bank firmly indicating it will pursue the 4.5% target in 2017, the inflation expectations measured in the Focus survey for that year have declined steeply, and the downward effect on real inflation is enhanced by the large negative GDP gap. Why against this favorable backdrop is...

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