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Assessing the latest MNB rate cut and fiscal announcements
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2015

That the MNB reduced its base rate by 15 bps to 1.8% on April 21 was almost a non-event in the sense that essentially everyone on the market expected exactly this. That the rate cut had absolutely no immediate impact on the EURHUF exchange rate, which has been stuck in a narrow 297-302 range over...

EL SALVADOR: Still All About Growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The outlook for El Salvador´s economy is still bleak, despite minor improvements in certain variables amid favorable external conditions.Real GDP is expected to grow 2.3%-2.5% in 2015 and 2016. That’s a bit of an improvement over previous years, but insufficient to significantly...

Petrobras' Financial Statement Disclosure
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2015

Quick Snapshot Impairment of 44 billion reais, or 14.8 billion dollars6.2 billion reais ($2.1 billion) due to corruptionR$ 199 billion worth of contracts analyzed to calculate loss from corruptionNet loss of R$21 billionDisclosure was fully approved by PricewaterhouseCoopersResults for the first ...

​HDP and CHP’s election promises corner AKP
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2015

It is encouraging to see that Turkish media is paying greater attention to parties' election manifestos to judge their fitness for power; it is to be hoped that the electorate would do the same. We have already covered AKP’s 400 plus page behemoth which we deemed lacking excitement and rather sel...

Customs Commissioner Resigns
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Apr 2015

Should we be worried that Customs Commissioner John Phillip Sevilla has resigned? After all, Mr. Sevilla, who was appointed in late 2013, is credited with the impressive 21% growth in import duty collections last year that helped to raise the overall tax effort in 2014 by another 0.3% of GDP. Wer...

MPC: Pass-Through, What’s That?
TURKEY · Report · 22 Apr 2015

Today, the Monetary Policy Committee kept all interest rates unchanged (Graph 1) and tweaked macro-prudential ratios a little, all as expected. The latter involved raising interest rates on TL-based required reserves by 50 bps and reducing the rate charged on F/X borrowings of banks from the CBRT...

Politics: How the Public Might Vent Its Ire
MEXICO · Report · 21 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The rising sense of frustration over reports of graft, influence peddling, and the political system in general, will undoubtedly find specific forms of expression as the public’s patience will presumably grow thinner given the appalling lack of sensitivity officials or their rel...

Economics: Cuts, Not Fires, Threaten Revenues
MEXICO · Report · 21 Apr 2015

Executive Summary On the last day of March, the Ministry of Finance sent the Mexican Congress a document entitled “2015 Economic Policy Pre-criteria” that offers an analysis of the current state of the economy. It also updates the macroeconomic framework anticipated for 2015-2016 and the way in w...

Medina A Step Closer to Running
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 21 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The IMAE for January and February shows that growth, though still strong, is slowing. Inflation in March reached 0.14%, and accumulated inflation in Q1 was only 0.16%, while y/y inflation continues to decline. Monetary policy remains tight, though at the end of March the Central...

Brazil and the World in IMF’s View
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Apr 2015

Last week the IMF published the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook (WEO), containing new macroeconomic projections for various countries and economic blocs, along with trends for the coming years. The global economy should continue on its recent recovery path, albeit with much slower gr...

Week of April 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2015

Despite the holiday (April 21), this will be an intense week: Dilma sanctions the 2015 Budget; the House continues the vote on outsourcing; the Senate debates the state debt index; and the Petrobras financial balance will finally be released. Light at the end of the tunnel There are details that ...

Growth Outlook Wan, as Government Hunts for Finance
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The dramatic fall in oil prices has forced the government to cut $1.4 billion from its 2015 budget – so we expect growth to plunge year, though it should recover somewhat if certain hydroelectric projects begin operating by mid-2016.We project 2015 growth at less than 1%, if oil...

Weekly Tracker: April 19-25
TURKEY · Report · 19 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The centennial of the so-called Armenian genocide is causing major headaches to Turkish diplomacy, which AKP is overcoming with healthy doses of paranoia and xenophobia. We don’t expect President Obama to join the chorus of genocide-accepters. At home, AKP’s election manifesto i...

Heads Up: Eulogio del Pino, Pdvsa
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 17 Apr 2015

Rumors point to the imminent dismissal of Eulogio del Pino, President of Pdvsa, owing to disagreements with Asdrúbal Chavez, Minister of Petroleum, and/or Carlos Malpica Flores, Finance Director. The news has not been confirmed. Del Pino’s departure from Pdvsa would be bad news. He has managed to...

Economics: Local Ripples from US Slowdown
MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Since the last quarter of 2014 and through the first of 2015, the US economy has shown lower levels of growth in its industrial sector. In contrast to the slowdown observed in early 2014, which was largely provoked by climatic circumstances (polar vortex), the latest stalling of...

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