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London trip notes: A calm bearishness
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2015

Since my return from the Great Conquest of London, 4 international investment banks and three local institutions published research on Turkish elections and the aftermath. The conclusions were eerily similar: Political noise will not taper off after the elections. Since my mission in London was p...

AKP’s candidate roster
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Apr 2015

After an 8 day London trip, during which I and my side-kick Cosmic Strategist visited up to 40 members of the investment banking community, I’m back in Turkey, having missed a Weekly and the most important event of the recent past, namely the submission of candidate rosters to the High Election B...

Week of April 14
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2015

The fiscal austerity measures enter a new phase. The rapporteurs of the provisional measures are expected to present their reports this week. Voting in the Joint Committee should take place in the next two weeks. The House continues the vote on outsourcing, and the Senate examines two appointment...

More controls, distortions and corruption
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Apr 2015

The government again chose the most inefficient, cumbersome, and corruption-prone path to adjustment ahead of the December elections. Cencoex Regulation No 11 (Official Gazette No 40636 dated 04/09/2015) reinforces forex controls and rationing for travel abroad and online purchases using credit c...

Unsustainable Forint Strength
HUNGARY · Forecast · 13 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Analysts have been essentially right in their recent assessments that the Hungarian economy is likely to experience a pretty good year in 2015, with reasonably high growth, very low inflation, combined with limited fiscal deficit, a slightly decreasing government debt ratio and ...

The Recent Exchange Rate Trend
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Apr 2015

During March the real reached R$ 3.30/US$, since when it has been appreciating, with a slight reduction in volatility. This movement is not unique to Brazil’s currency, indicating that part of the reason for the recent strengthening is external factors. But these elements have been accompanied by...

Weekly Tracker: April 12-18
TURKEY · Report · 12 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Our political analyst-cum-Cosmic strategist has been touring around the world on a business-cum-leisure trip, so you are stuck with me again this week. We begin by taking note of a recent election simulation that confirms what has sort of become the consensus view by now: if the...

New output, trade and inflation data mark moderate slowdown, predict further MNB rate cut
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2015

Industrial output (gross output in real terms) rose 5.8% yoy in February, implying 5.6% yoy growth in Jan-Feb 2015. This looks like continued decent growth. But the right comparison to see how the economy's overall growth dynamics is moving from last year is the one against 7.1% yoy expansion rec...

Mobilizing Management Efficiency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2015

Regional elites are under increased pressure from the Kremlin to comply with anti-corruption regulation as the country approaches a new wave of governors’ elections in September 2015, and with 18 months until the national parliamentary elections. The Presidential Administration now needs to final...

Dilma Rousseff’s Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2015

Temer chosen as government’s political articulator President Dilma Rousseff made a bold move in closing the Secretariat of Institutional Relations, headed by Pepe Vargas (PT), and transferring the responsibility for political articulation to VP Michel Temer. Political articulation is an area that...

Growth Firming Up
MEXICO · Report · 07 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The past month has produced further evidence of economic momentum and future growth potential, while also revealing unexpected weaknesses.Since September, the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) shows the economy growing at its natural pace of 2.5% to 3% of GDP. January’s report extended t...

The absurd theater of the AIIB
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 06 Apr 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: Investors seem to be increasingly acknowledging that the world suffers from a structural excess of savings over desired private investment, and it is this excess that was responsible for the excess consumption during the bubble years and the weak demand ...

Week of April 6
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2015

This will be a busy week. The House may vote on the bill regulating outsourcing of labor. The Petrobras CPI hears PT Treasurer João Vaccari Neto. The Senate discusses fiscal incentives, and the index for state debt is also on the agenda, but voting on both matters is likely to be postponed.Expect...

Corruption Probes Overshadows Focus on Economic Performance
PANAMA · Report · 06 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Corruption probes continues to broaden: more than dozen former government officials private contractor have been investigated for overcharging, conspiracy and bidding manipulation, since the Varela administration began. According to some estimates, the cost of these frauds could...

The Labor Market: New Trends
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2015

After several years of unemployment rates near historical lows along with rising real wages, the Brazilian labor market has started to show clear signs of weakening. The recent uptick in joblessness is a consequence of the sharp economic deceleration, and has been accompanied by smaller wage incr...

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