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Growth May Revive in Mid-2016
CHINA · Forecast · 02 Nov 2015

We expect growth to be low but stable, with the already-loose monetary and fiscal policy leading to strengthening. We therefore foresee a growth rebound in mid-2016. Meanwhile, GDP growth and fixed asset investment both fell in Q3, and producer prices fell further, continuing to deflate. GDP was ...

Back to Single Party Government
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Nov 2015

Hi All: Murat here, filling in for Atilla Yesilada, sharing very briefly his first impressions on today’s AK Party victory. Facts: According to the preliminary results, AK Party won, quite unexpectedly, some 49% of the votes, winning around 312 seats in parliament, up from 258 in June (see table ...

Another political arrest: will it become fatal mistake for Poroshenko?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Oct 2015

Breaking news was released on Saturday morning. The authorities arrested Gennadiy Korban, one of the leaders of political party UKROP (funded by Igor Kolomoysky). Officially he was blamed in organizing criminal group. In reality, the main crime of UKROP was their result on mayor’s elections in Dn...

The State of the South African Economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Oct 2015

One of the signs that was held up by some students during the October 2015 protests by university students in South Africa read “Our parents were sold dreams in 1994 – we are here for a refund”. This message captures not only the lack of confidence that students clearly have in the state of South...

Rebound in Capital Flows
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Oct 2015

In the past few weeks, we have seen a return of capital inflows into the Indonesian financial system, both in the stock and the bond market. Such a return led to a significant strengthening of the Indonesian currency. Aside from the impact of lowering import prices, the strengthening of the curre...

The government is selling its 5% stake in OTP today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Oct 2015

The government is selling its whole 5% ownership stake in OTP through a market auction today, in a step that was not announced previously. The revenue collected was HUF75bn or 0.24% of GDP. Cabinet minister Lázár said this move will not affect the government's target to keep at least 50% of the b...

​Massa’s very explicit “implicit support” for Macri
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Oct 2015 · 2 responses

Without mentioning Macri or Alianza Cambiemos,.Sergio Massa expressed yesterday UNA’s positions ahead of the ballotage on November 22nd. Throughout the press conference, Massa and his main political allies, such as De la Sota and Lavagna, made it clear that they would not support the official can...

Economics: Lower House Passes Revenue Bill
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2015

The Chamber of Deputies last week passed the government’s proposed Federal Revenue Law for 2016 and in the process made a few changes. One of the most significant alterations involved the expected average foreign exchange rate. It was raised to 16.40 pesos to the dollar from the 15.90 level the o...

Politics: A Tale of Four State Elections
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2015

The electoral calendar was shaken up late last week as the Federal Electoral Tribunal decided to annul the gubernatorial elections held in the Pacific Coast state of Colima last June, in which the incumbent PRI edged out the PAN by a mere 0.17% of the vote. The tribunal cited evidence that the cu...

Costa Rica: Government Growth Plan Skirts Key Issues
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Oct 2015

President Luis Guillermo Solis’ growth plan includes an interest rate cut, but seems to address few key issues, concentrating instead on minor advances, and mostly silent on projected impacts or details needed to evaluate the results. Moreover, his announcement was vague on many points. Despite f...

Inflation Report: Lost in Detail
TURKEY · Report · 28 Oct 2015

The CBRT has released the last Inflation Report of the year today. The key change from the July report were the upward revisions of inflation estimates for this and next year to 7.9% (higher than the MTP’s 7.6%) and 6.5%, respectively (both mid-points), from 6.9% and 5.5% previously. The reasons ...

Polls, Government and Succession
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2015

The latest CNT/MDA poll shows that the Dilma Rousseff Administration is still widely rejected by Brazilians. The changes in approval and disapproval came in within the margin of error (2.2 points).80.7% of interviewees disapprove of Dilma’s personal performance, while it is approved by only 15.9%.

Capital Outflow Fears Overstated
CHINA · Report · 28 Oct 2015

GDP growth and fixed asset investment both fell in Q3, and producer prices fell further, continuing their deflation cycle. GDP was up 6.9% y/y in Q3, down 0.1 pps from Q2. Industrial output was up 5.9%, down 0.4 pps. Fixed asset investment was up 6.8% y/y in September and 8.7% y/y in Q3. Quarterl...

Unemployment Rises as Economy Struggles
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Oct 2015

According to official statistics released by Stats SA (see Graph 1) South Africa’s unemployment rate rose to 25.5% in the third quarter of 2015 from 25% in the second quarter. This represents a 0.5 percentage point increase for the quarter. This is not good news for the country’s economy that has...

AKP divided: Coalition or third election?
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Oct 2015

I received another query from an esteemed reader, which asks: “Today I saw some news on Bloomberg quoting Mehmet Sahin and Ismet Yilmaz putting some risk on the possibility of a coalition involving the AKP. I would like to know if you think that the AKP will want to form a government with another...

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