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Dominican Rep: surprising figures of GDP growht for 2013 (Q4 and Q1-Q4)
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Jan 2014 · 2 responses

The Central Bank just released data of GDP growth for Q4 2013 and for the whole year. The figures are surprising and have been received with disbelief by many analysts. According to the Bank, in Q4 GDP grew at 7.2% compared to Q4 of 2012. As a result, GDP growth for 2013 was 4.1% compared to 2012...

Looking Ahead to the New Political Season
CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2014

Summer politics These are the last days of the Chilean political season, before senior politicians and their families repair to the country or the beach for the entire month of February. Before leaving for the holidays, the center-left is busy with the appointment of the new cabinet; the center-r...

Peso In A Free Fall?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 Jan 2014

The peso’s “free fall”, as one headline put it, has raised worries that the country’s external payments position, which has been a major source of resilience, may come under pressure as imports to fund reconstruction and other infrastructure needs increase this year. The latest balance of payment...

Reluctant Hiker?
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Jan 2014

The MPC did not change any of the rates today, but said that it would drive money market rates to 9% (from 7.75% currently) on additional monetary tightening (AMT) days. This, the Committee said, aims at aligning the inflation outlook with the medium term target. Our first impression is that this...

Revving Up
PANAMA · Forecast · 20 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The economy is gaining momentum, expanding 8.9% in Q3, up from 7% in Q1 and Q2 (cumulative growth of 8% through Q3, though, is still below the 10%+ of earlier years). These results are explained by a significant Q3 increase in key sectors like mining and construction, and transp...

Was the COPOM Decision Unexpected?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2014

The expression most heard just after the decision at the last COPOM meeting to raise the SELIC rate by 50 basis points, and extending the cycle of the rate increase, was that it was a “surprise”. For those only looking at the fact that “official” inflation was below the upper bound of the target ...

Weekly Tracker: January 19-25
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Our hopes for reconciliation between AKP and the Gulen Movement (GM) have so far failed to materialize, with both sides eagerly opening new fronts in the war instead. We start with a recap of the major developments of the last week to emphasize our thesis that the entire state a...

Radical Ideology, Pragmatic Implementation
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jan 2014

In his first annual message to the National Assembly on 15 January 2014, President Nicolas Maduro confirmed the government’s intervention strategy "no matter what happens” (sic) emphasizing on controls on prices and foreign exchange transactions. Shortly after, Jorge Arreaza, Executive Vicepresid...

Real Retail Sales: Latest Data
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2014

Real retail sales expanded in November. In the restricted sense (without cars and building materials), the increase was 0.7%, while in the augmented concept growth was 1.3% (Graph 1). The 12-month rates were 7.0% and 5.7%, respectively. Given the carry-over of 2.5% in augmented sales, even with t...

New allegations of corruption by Erdogan & Son rocks the markets
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2014

The war between AKP and the Gulen movement is escalating by the minute. Today, a third wave of arrest warrants centering on the AKP-held Beyoglu municipality of Istanbul were not carried out by police chiefs. AKP took the hatchet to the judiciary rotating more than 30 judges and prosecutors belie...

Time for Political Definition
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 16 Jan 2014

Executive Summary GDP growth in Q4 2013 will reach 3.3%, leading to annual GDP growth of 3.1% for 2013. The relatively low growth rate will result in an increase of half a percentage point in the rate of unemployment, thus reaching 15.4%. As of December 2013, the year-to-year inflation rate remai...

Is it ‘the first shot’ of civil war?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jan 2014

It finally happened. The ruling group approved the law which might legalize Ukraine as totalitarian regime. After almost two months of active mass-protests the authorities put all protesting actions beyond the law. Today MPs voted in the law which: (a) imposes fees or imprisonment terms for unaut...

Maduro's address will be at at 4:00PM (Caracas time)
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2014

As per the National Assembly Secretariat's announcement.

Coming Soon: Greater Instability
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Jan 2014

Executive SummaryArgentina is experiencing a typical inflation–devaluation spiral. The government’s fiscal deficit has climbed to 4% of GDP. Monetary issuance to close the gap explains 2013’s 32% expansion of the money base, though net monetary expansion was 22% for the year, due to the contracti...

Breaking Bad
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The collapse of the symbiotic partnership between Turkey’s two powerful Islamist groups means that political stability is most likely impaired at least until the local elections, with uncertain prospects thereafter. A significantly higher political risk premium is very bad news ...