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Weekly Tracker: January 4-10
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2015

Executive Summary A parliamentary committee will vote on Monday whether to send some or all of the 4 ex-AKP ministers to the general floor with a recommendation to impeach. We bet that AKP MPs will acquit their colleagues. Meanwhile, we have no idea when the Constitutional Court will hand down it...

Better Than We Hoped
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryPreliminary data suggests the economies of Costa Rica, Guatemala and El Salvador performed better than expected this year. The good behavior of the U.S. economy, and trajectory of commodity prices (mainly oil and its derivatives) during H2, helped lift external commerce, and sust...

Dilma’s Second Term
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Dec 2014

Dilma Concludes Ministerial Reform After extensive negotiation, president Dilma Rousseff (PT) has finished choosing her ministers for her second term.From November 27, when the new economic team was announced, to today (31), a month and four days have passed.The delay in setting up the complete t...

Promising Prospects
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Dec 2014

Executive Summary The short-term volatility in the currency and capital markets notwithstanding, Jokowi’s presidency has created encouraging prospects for Indonesia. The president’s bold November 18th move to cut the oil subsidy has created a large fiscal space that will allow the government t...

India at the Crossroads
INDIA · Report · 30 Dec 2014

Executive Summary When the Modi administration took charge, there was euphoria and a genuine sense of possibility. The first seven months do not bode well. There are weaknesses in (a) diagnosing the problems (b) establishing strategies of reform and (c) setting up teams that can achieve stated ob...

Could Cuba become an economic threat?
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 29 Dec 2014

The simultaneous announcement by the governments of Cuba and the United States to restore diplomatic relations and normalize economic ties received a very warm welcome in all Latin America. Nonetheless, in the Caribbean and in the Dominican Republic it has also been received with some concern due...

Budget approved but… to be revised within a month
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Dec 2014

Last night parliament approved spending plan 2015. In essence we cannot even comment on the document which was approved since none ever seen the one (according to MPs). We assume the document is close to the spending plan initially submitted to the parliament but with some changes MPs discussed. ...

Corruption, Politics, And Economics: End Of The Year Subjects
PANAMA · Report · 26 Dec 2014

Eighteen weeks after assuming office, Juan Carlos Varela faces several key battles in three fronts: scandals of corruption in various cases by officials of the Martinelli administration, the political fragility of the Legislative alliance with the PRD and …alas! …the economic and budgetary condit...

More Free Trade Zones Established
CHINA · Report · 24 Dec 2014

Executive Summary Fixed asset investment rose 14.9% y/y in real terms in November, while industrial output fell further, up 7.2% y/y, down almost 2 pps from H1. Time is needed for the Central Bank’s November interest rate cuts to have a positive effect on real economy. Retail sales of consu...

MPC: An Uneventful Ending
TURKEY · Report · 24 Dec 2014

In line with the consensus view, the Monetary Policy Committee left all interest rates unchanged today: the weekly repo rate at 8.25%; O/N lending and borrowing rates at 11.25% and 7.5%, respectively (see chart). In terms of the content of the statement, there was no major change from the previou...

Crazy budget 2015
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Dec 2014 · 2 responses

It was a huge disappointment to see draft budget 2015 the Cabinet submitted to the parliament today. Given that Ukraine badly needs financial support from the IMF it was widely expected that Minfin will present a realistic revenues’ target with substantial spending cuts. The numbers we saw today ...

Bring Them to the Cities!
CHINA · Report · 23 Dec 2014

Executive Summary Though the Central Economic Work Conference in early December didn’t set a GDP growth target for 2014, many pundits suspect it will be in the 7.2%-7.5% range. Premier Li Keqiang reportedly remarked that 7.2% seemed to be the necessary level for satisfying 2014 Chinese employment...

The High Opportunity Cost of Arrogance
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryPresident Correa has accustomed us to his displays of ideology bias and haughtiness. This past week the government denied entrance to a group of representatives from the German environmental parliament. The impasse ended up with Ecuador terminating the environmental cooperation w...

Glimmers of Strength
MEXICO · Report · 22 Dec 2014

Executive Summary The Mexican economy has been showing signs of firming: In November officials reported that GDP had rebounded to its “natural rate” of growth, of nearly 3%. But there are surprise headwinds, too. Industrial production in October was up 2.1% y/y, an expansion driven by manufacturi...

Deep Recession and Large Risks in 2015
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 22 Dec 2014

Executive Summary This report updates our macroeconomic outlook for 2015. In our central scenario, the economy sinks deeper into recession (–6.4 percent) and suffers triple-digit inflation (124.9 percent). Personal consumption slips by 4.2 percent. The current account balance turns negative (–$6....

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