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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Infrastructure Plan’s Challenges
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2014

Executive Summary The week before last, the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto unveiled its National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) for 2014-2018. Over the course of April officials announced a total of 44 national, institutional, regional and state programs – including 32 that were announ...

Zero inflation trend continued in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 May 2014

CPI-inflation for April came out at 0.1% mom / -0.1% yoy in April, which made the average Jan-Apr yoy inflation rate exactly 0%. The April data was pulled down by a 0.5% yoy decline of food prices, due to the right amount of rainfall and the lack of freezing temperatures, which could have destroy...

Resurrections, Alarms, And Scandals
COLOMBIA · Report · 12 May 2014

Executive SummaryWith the June 1 Inauguration Day approaching, President-elect Salvador Sánchez is being forced to face financial realities. Though he’s built bridges with various sectors and laid the groundwork for a favorable domestic climate, recent data make clear that the budget lacks funds,...

Outlook on the Elections
INDIA · Report · 12 May 2014

Executive SummaryIt would be surprising if the mainstream projections of a clear majority for the BJP work out. The NDA is likely to come to power, but as a weak coalition dependent on the support of a few allies and it is likely to have a weak position in the Rajya Sabha until 2016. It is unlike...

Inflation: Differences Between 2002 and 2014
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2014

There is little doubt that after the elections the Central Bank will have to undertake the hard task of bringing inflation back to the 4.5% target. There is also little doubt that convergence to this target will be a long and arduous process.

Political Insights: Week of May 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2014

The 10-minute PT party ad will air on Thursday, with Dilma Rousseff and Lula as the focus of the ad.Guido Mantega goes to the House to address the Petrobras allegations as well as the economic scenario.Congress continues focus on the Petrobras CPI.Mayors from all over the country will take part i...

Chugging Along
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 12 May 2014

Executive Summary By and large, the central scenario we drew up in our last quarterly report continues to hold, with government’s own leading economic indicator pointing to a slowdown in 1Q14 GDP growth.We are also seeing several potential drags on growth, including infrastructure bottlenecks and...

Postponing Decisions and Increasing the Costs of the Adjustment
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2014

Executive Summary By all indications, GDP growth in 2014 will fall shy of that in 2013, with a further decline in 2015. Inflation will close the year near 6.5%, which together with the effects of the correction of gasoline and electricity prices will require a further increase in the interest ...

Another ‘referendum’? Or just opinion-poll?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 May 2014

On May 11 separatists did organize the widely advertised ‘referendum’. Bulletins printed on common printers. Only few polling points (instead of few hundreds needed). No passports or other IDs needed to vote. Some cities are voting for Donetsk National Republic, some cities are voting for merging...

Weekly Tracker: May 11-17
TURKEY · Report · 11 May 2014

Executive Summary Industrial production surprised on the upside in March, expanding 4.2%, y/y. This has brought the IP growth in Q1 to a solid 5.3% (unadjusted), up from Q4’s 3.8%, marking a stronger than envisaged entry into the year. What is the source of this resilience? To answer this questio...

IPCA: Inflation Accelerates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 May 2014

In March the IPCA grew by 0.92%, in comparison with the IPCA-15 of 0.73%, raising the 12-month figure from 5.68% to 6.15% (Graph 1). With this result, the probability has grown that inflation will exceed the upper bound of the target interval at some point during the second or third quarters this...

Changing the Rules
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2014

Increasing international pressure and sanctions by the US and its allies have been used by Russia’s ruling elite as an excuse to intensify control over society at large. However, top-level decision-makers would also like to maintain tighter control over the national elite, and for that reason Pre...

Industrial Production: Revision in the Series and Results for March
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 May 2014

Executive Summary The IBGE has just released the industrial output numbers for March. However, in computing those numbers it applied a revised survey method. In the first part of this Bulletin we comment on the results for March, while in the second part we briefly describe the changes instituted...

An Acute Case of Foot-in-Mouth Disease
PERU · Report · 06 May 2014

Executive SummaryThe murder of a rival of Ancash’s regional president pushed worries over political delinquency in the provinces on to the front pages. The scandal forced the agencies overseeing October’s municipal and regional elections to warn that the spread of criminality in politics was the ...

Political Environment Tightens
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2014

Executive Summary Last week’s one-and-only debate between the two men competing for the chairmanship of the National Action Party confirmed the general impression that little, other than personal animosities and clique allegiances, separates either contender, as no evidence emerged of any clear i...

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