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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Promising Signals
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2014

Executive Summary Recent economic news has pointed toward the possibility that the Mexican economy enjoyed a slight recovery during the second and third months of 2014, especially the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) for February, which appeared to herald stronger economic conditions going forward. Manuf...

Juan Carlos Varela Posts Unexpected Win
PANAMA · Report · 06 May 2014

Juan Carlos Varela, the leader of the rightist Panameñista Party in coalition with Partido Popular (former Christian Democrats) won the presidential election with 39.2% of the votes. José Domingo Arias of the ruling Party Cambio Democrático (CD) got 32% and Juan Carlos Navarro of the PRD received...

The Reduction in the Growth of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2014

The reduced growth pace of real retail sales is not only due to the slower expansion of employment, causing deceleration of real payroll growth. Another factor is the reduced expansion of credit to individuals. The effects are most visible in car sales, which are very sensitive to bank lending po...

Core Nears Double the Target Rate
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2014

CPI inflation was a higher than expected 1.3% in April (consensus: 0.9%), which took the 12-month rate a full percentage point higher, to 9.4%. Food was a big contributor, with monthly food inflation (including beverages) swinging from a negative 1.3% in April 2013 to an increase of 1.4% in April...

Political Insights: Week of May 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2014

The creation of the Petrobras CPI will once again be one of the main topics for the week as party leaders may decide whether the Committee will be made up of senators or whether it will be a Joint CPI, with federal representatives.This weekend a new Datafolha poll on the presidential race will be...

Revving Up
PANAMA · Forecast · 05 May 2014

Executive Summary Though growth is slowing from its powerful 2012 peak of 10.8%, we are optimistic for 2014-2016, and project GDP GAGR at 6.3% (on the heels of 8.4% growth in 2013). The main reason for the slowdown is a fall in exports, and in fixed capital formation, as massive public investment...

Fight for Odesa: Putin’s ‘Stalingrad defeat’?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 May 2014

The events which happened yesterday in Odesa could be hardly overestimated. Moscow has made an attempt to capture Odesa and create one more point of tension in Ukraine. The plan failed disregard silent support of local police and secret service – people managed to defend themselves from Russian t...

IMF Approves 2-Year $17.01 billion Stand-By Arrangement for Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 May 2014

The IMF Executive Board approves 2-year $17.01 billion stand-by arrangement for Ukraine. The first wire ($3.19 billion) will arrive on Monday. About $2 billion from the first wire will be allocated to the budget support. The next two wires will be subject to bi-monthly performance reviews. Accord...

Dominican Rep allocates USD 1.25 bn in Sovereign Bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 30 Apr 2014

On 24 April, the Dominican government announced the allocation of USD 1.25 bn in Sovereign Bonds of 30 years term at a yield of 7.45%. This rate is below the yield in the secondary market of all 30-year Sovereign Bonds of countries rated B in the date of the issuing. The demand for the bonds reac...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2014

CNT/MDA: New poll reveals declining popularity and intended votes for Dilma Rousseff On Tuesday (29), CNT/MDA released a new poll, conducted on April 20-25, on evaluations of the Dilma administration and the presidential race.The poll on the government demonstrated the same trend recently present...

Better Than Nothing
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The government and opposition moderates have sat down to negotiate an end to the street protests and violence. The process is fragile and may be abandoned at any moment. The opposition is divided—radicals don’t want to back down and wait till 2018 to unseat Maduro. The governmen...

More Weakness Ahead
MEXICO · Report · 30 Apr 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic news in Mexico has been largely disappointing this year, and the indicators published in April were no exception. But not all the news was dire. February produced the second consecutive increase in industrial production; construction activity continues to produce signs ...

April Inflation Report Highlights
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2014

Here are a few highlights from today’s Inflation Report presentation by Governor Basci: *Yearend inflation estimate is now up by a full percentage point to 7.6% (midpoint of the usual 70% probability band). The revision is a bit on the high side, but the revision itself is not surprising (see our...

With Pro-Ukrainian Sentiment Strengthening, Outlook is Positive
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Ukrainian authorities haven’t yet been very effective in fighting Russian invaders: rather, they’ve been careful to avoid injuring innocent civilians. And, due to Ukrainian indecisiveness, pro-Russian activists have begun terrorizing local residents. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, sm...

A Tight Electoral Race Indeed: No Major Changes in Policy Ahead, But Huge Challenges for the Winner
PANAMA · Report · 29 Apr 2014

After months of intoxicating electoral campaigning (with negative ads and character assassination included) on Sunday, May 4 general elections will take place. Seven presidential candidates, 71 legislative hopefuls, 77 district mayors and 648 prospective local authorities will face a voting pool ...

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