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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Understanding the Paradox of the Labor Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 May 2014

There is a contrast in the Brazilian labor market: on the one hand, the unemployment rate has been holding steady at minimum historic levels, indicating a situation near full employment, while on the other hand new hiring has been growing at a pace near zero, indicating weakening. Indeed, the job...

Our Worst Fears Confirmed
ECUADOR · In Brief · 26 May 2014

This weekend President Correa announced his decision to give green light to the initiative promoted by legislators from Alianza Pais of amending the constitution to allow "indefinite re-election" for all elected public representatives. His arguments were based on what he perceives as a an "eviden...

Zuluaga takes 1st place in first round. There will be a run-off on June 15th
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 25 May 2014

With more than 99% of the votes accounted for, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga captured 29.27% of the votes, while President Santos came in second, with 25.63%. This means, of course, there will be a run-off election on June 15th, three weeks from now. Abstention exceeded 60%. Martha Lucía Ramírez, from the C...

Exit-Polls: Poroshenko Wins in First Round. Tough Work on Civil Control is Ahead.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 May 2014

Petro Poroshenko gets 55.9% in first round according to the National Exit-Poll. Real results might differ but we already know the name of fifth Ukrainian president. The good news is that after inauguration more decisive actions at the eastern Ukraine could be launched. The bad news is that Petro ...

Weekly Tracker: May 25-31
TURKEY · Report · 25 May 2014

Executive Summary It is not official but Erdogan’s speech in Cologne suggests he is serious about Presidency. The opposition is yet to find a match for him, but we still don’t concede victory to Erdogan. The death of yet another Alevite Turk at the hands of the police during week and the sudden e...

Elections: Poroshenko Might Win in First Round. ‘Cleaning’ East, New Parliament Elections and Real Decentralization are the First Steps Ukrainians Demand
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 May 2014

The main intrigue of president elections 2014 – whether Petro Poroshenko wins in first round or he needs second round to get his prize. Surveys (mid-May) in one voice give him the victory in this way or another and it is very unlikely that the final result will be too much different. It is not th...

It’s Getting Chilly
CHILE · Report · 23 May 2014

Executive Summary The perspectives for the economy in the short term are not catastrophic, but neither very encouraging. Investment has sharply decelerated, consumption growth is moderating, the labor market is deteriorating and inflation has increased. But record-low real interest rates, stro...

Squelching and Environmental Referendum
ECUADOR · Report · 23 May 2014

Executive Summary This year hasn’t started off well, for either the govenrment or its citizens. The government was stung by its party’s lackluster victories in local elections, and for the first time in seven years must cope with dwindling funds. And citizens concerned about the evironmmental eff...

Showcasing the Philippines
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 May 2014

This week, the Philippines hosted this year's World Economic Forum for East Asia to much fanfare and self-congratulating back patting. The event could not have come at a better time with the country boasting of a 7.2% GDP growth last year, "next only to China", and the S&P just the other week vou...

Law that recognizes citizenship to descendant of irregular migrants approved by Congress
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 May 2014

After months of heated national debate and stiff pressure from the international community, last week President Medina submitted to Congress a bill aimed at recognizing citizenship to descendent of migrants born in the country who were properly registered in the Civil Registry and hold birth cert...

two important milestones for the 4G infrastructure plan
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 22 May 2014

1. The State Council, one of Colombia's high courts, lifted the freeze it had imposed on the process to sell the National Government's stake in Isagén. The new timeline to complete this process will be released by the Ministry of Finance in a very short period of time. The resources resulting fro...

The Rise Of External Debt?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 May 2014

Executive Summary There have been cases in recent history in which a country experiencing “miracle” growth – driven by domestic investment that, in late stages, tends increasingly to misallocation – has reached domestic debt capacity constraints, only to replace domestic funding with external fun...

I Am An Excellent, Excellent Driver
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2014

Contrary to our – and most analysts’ -- expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee cut the one-week repo rate by 50 bps today to 9.5%, while it kept the O/N lending and borrowing rates unchanged (see chart). This cut is significant because the one-week repo rate has regained its prevalence as th...

No Hike in the Benchmark Interest Rate…For Now
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 May 2014

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has opted to leave the repo rate at 5.5% per year (see Graph 1). The Bank cited a challenging environment characterized by a weak domestic economy coupled with elevated price pressures as factors that informed its stance. Gra...

El Salvador: Falling to Earth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 May 2014

Executive SummaryWith the June 1 Inauguration Day approaching, President-elect Salvador Sánchez is being forced to face financial realities. Though he’s built bridges with various sectors and laid the groundwork for a favorable domestic climate, recent data make clear that the budget lacks funds,...

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