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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

More power supply worries
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

In a commentary last year on domestic inflation concerns,[1] we cited the sufficiency of electric power supply as one of the risks that have macro level implications.[2]Barely two weeks into the new year, we are seeing just how idiosyncratic the risks affecting this complex sector have become. As...

Omicron watch 2
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Jan 2022

In the span of one week, new Covid19 cases spiked from a 7-day average of less than 2k as of Jan 2 to over 16k as of Jan 9. In the latest batch of 48 Covid19 cases sequenced, the Philippine Genome Center detected the Omicron variant in 29 of the samples, making it the dominant strain. Although Me...

New year, new wave (Omicron watch)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Jan 2022

The new year has started on a sour note for the tens of thousands newly sickened by the coronavirus. Although limited sampling has meant that the Omicron variant has been detected in only a few of the local cases so far, it is reasonable to assume that the sudden multiplication of cases since Chr...

Is it game over?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Dec 2021

Pulse Asia released today the results of its survey of on voters’ presidential preferences conducted in the first week of December. The late dictator’s son, former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., was the top pick, with a majority (53%) of the respondents saying they will vote for him if elections ...

Monetary policy considerations
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Dec 2021

Although central banks around the world pursued similar strategies of pouring monies into their economies in the wake of the pandemic, it is clear from their divergent moves this year that there is no one-size-fits-all exit strategy. With the most-watched central bank, the US Fed, signaling readi...

Where are the jobs?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The October rounds of the Labor Force Survey (LFS) highlight a key weakness in the economy’s recovery from the pandemic: lack of quality jobs. The impact on household incomes and consumption will hamper the recovery. Between 2019 and 2021, the labor force grew faster than the working age populati...

Pandora’s hope
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 02 Dec 2021

The Philippine economy withstood a Delta-driven surge in Q3 and is set to end the year on a high note. We forecast GDP growth at 5.5% this year and next, bringing domestic output to pre-pandemic levels only by late 2022. This outlook is based on two critical assumptions: (1) existing vaccines wor...

Will the President back Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Nov 2021

The odds have practically fallen to zero following the President’s non-cryptic remark last week that a presidential candidate uses cocaine. Without naming Marcos (popularly called by his nickname “Bongbong” and shortened to “BBM”), he described the candidate as rich but said that he was a “weak l...

Will the President back Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Nov 2021

What we know at this time:The period for filing of substitute candidates is over. Presidential daughter, Davao Mayor Sara Duterte, decided to run for vice president under the party of former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Presidential aspirant Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. who is running under a less...

​A pleasant surprise
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Nov 2021

Despite the spike in covid19 infections due to the delta variant and the tightening of lockdown restrictions, the Philippine economy grew at a surprisingly strong 7.1% yoy growth clip in 3Q21, or 3.8% on a sequential seasonally-adjusted basis. The main driver was a 7% qoq growth in household cons...

A better Christmas
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Nov 2021

The government yesterday unexpectedly announced a lowering of Metro Manila’s covid alert level from 3 to 2, which would allow close contact services to operate at 50% capacity (from 30%). This came alongside an increase in the allowable ridership for public transportation to 70% of capacity (from...

​Delta watch 7
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Oct 2021

Government today announced that Metro Manila will remain under alert level 3 until November 14. The 5-level alert system was introduced in mid-September with “1” being the least restrictive and “5” the most restrictive. Metro Manila was downgraded from level 4 to level 3 in mid-October. Alert lev...

​Que Sera, Sara
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Oct 2021

What we know at this time:The period for filing of certificates of candidacy (COC) closed last Friday and six publicly recognizable figures are running for the presidency. In alphabetical order: Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso, Senator Ronald dela Rosa, Senator Panfilo Lacson, former Senator Ferd...

​Inflation concerns
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Oct 2021

In a September Pulse Asia survey[1] published last week, “controlling inflation” emerged as the most urgent national concern, significantly ahead of “controlling the spread of covid-19.” Government’s approval score for handling inflation dropped 26 percentage points compared with survey results i...

​The China connection
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Oct 2021

Ongoing efforts by Chinese authorities to rein in excessive leverage in the property sector has had unintended consequences on global financial markets. The financial troubles of heretofore unheard-of Chinese property firm, Evergrande, have not only raised, in a moment of panic, the specter of an...

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