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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Market volatility increases as geopolitical noise hit Russia
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jan 2022

The Russian economy is waking up after a long New Year holiday break in a volatile environment caused by geopolitical noise. Compared to December 31, the Russian 10Y OFZ yields jumped by around 100 bps on January 14. The Russian ruble nearly attained almost the R/$ 77 benchmark on January 5, ahea...

Russian macro: recent Rosstat revision promises stronger growth in 2021-2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jan 2022

Rosstat announced at the very end of December 2021 that it had revised Russia’s annual GDP statistics for 2019-2020. The quarterly GDP numbers, however, have not been upgraded either for 9M21 or previous periods. Therefore, the revised annual numbers do not match the available quarterly statistic...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: seeking points of no return
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jan 2022

As the restrictions imposed by the Russian authorities in 2021 to counter the pandemic were moderate, selective, and short-lived, the country’s economic performance turned out to be better than expected. It now looks as though the 2021 GDP growth well exceeded 4.0%. Economic activity looked stron...

Season’s greetings from Rosstat: as the revised numbers suggest 2020 GDP contraction was not as deep as reported earlier, the 2021 dynamics will look better as well
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Dec 2021

Rosstat just reported that the 2020 GDP was higher in nominal terms, and contraction in real terms was not as significant as reported earlier - the new figure is 2.7% instead of 3.0%. Rosstat also revised up Russia’s GDP 2019 growth to 2.2% (from 2.0% reported earlier). Even though making such re...

Economic performance looks good in November, albeit high inflation in December disappoints
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, trade, transport, construction) increased y-o-y in November and 11M21 by 7.1% and 6.4%. This y-o-y growth in November looked strong due to stronger than expected production growth in agriculture (due to late harves...

Industrial output up by 5.2% y-o-y in 11M21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that industrial output increased y-o-y by 5.3% and 5.2% in November and 11M21. As regularly happened in 2020 and 2021, statistics for the preceding month were revised up. This revision was quite significant as, for instance, previously reported y-o-y October growth in manufacturi...

Consumer credit growth decelerated sharply amid a strong increase of household deposits in November – well before the recent key rate hike
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2021

Central Bank of Russia reported that the total credit to households grew by a mere 0.9% m-o-m in November, having decelerated sharply from 1.6% m-o-m in October and average monthly 2.0% seen in 2Q21 and 3Q21. At the same time, household deposits in November increased by 1.7% m-o-m, having fallen ...

Russian Macro: The Central Bank Turning Increasingly Hawkish
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Dec 2021

On December 17, the Central Bank of Russia raised its key rate by 100 bps to 8.5% and mentioned that a further rate hike could be possible in mid-February if inflation expectations remain high and inflation itself stays elevated. The regulator one more time referred to its previous views suggesti...

GDP up by 4.6% y-o-y in 9M21 pointing to a deceleration in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s nominal GDP reached R33.9 trln in 3Q21. In 4Q21 the nominal figure will be even higher so that GDP in 2021 as a wh0le will exceed R128 trln, as was reported in our recent forecast. The 9M21 GDP was up by 4.6% y-o-y - having increased by 4.3% y-o-y in 3Q21 and by 7.4...

Inflation w-o-w staying low for a second consecutive week in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending December 13, inflation w-o-w was again at 0.06%, i.e., the same as a week before. In two weeks of December inflation reached just 0.12%, which was in stark contrast to much higher inflation seen in October and November (inflation YTD reached 7.64% by mid...

The Federal budget surplus exceeded R2.3 trln in 11M21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget surplus exceeded R 2.3 trln amid strong revenue collection and rather moderate spending in November. In 11M total revenues exceeded the initial annual plan by 19.6% as oil-and-gas revenues exceeded the annual target by 36.6%. Non-oil-and-gas r...

​OFZ: Russian institutional investors have reduced positions in 3Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2021

CBR has published data on OFZ holdings by local institutional investors following as of end of 3Q21. For the first time in a year, they reduced positions in government bonds (-R51 bln in nominal terms in June-September). Pension funds have cut investments by R48 bln, and insurance companies --- b...

Russian macro forecast: emphasis on inflation and rates as growth returned and “booster” sanctions offered
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 09 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that 2Q21 GDP was up by 4.3% y-o-y, implying that the economic growth could vary between 4.6% and 4.7% in 9М21, which is in line with our previous 2021 GDP growth forecast, which ranged from 4.2% to 4.3%. In 2022 GDP growth will naturally decelerate. What has changed signific...

The current account surplus to be record high in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The CBR published its flash estimate of the 11M21 current account surplus and the trade balance. The former widened from $94.4bn in 10M21 to $111.4bn. The latter increased to $162.8 bn. In 2021 as a whole, the current account will likely reach $128bn (if not more) therefore beating the historical...

Consumer lending rates climbed, weekly inflation statistics surprised
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2021

The CBR published October statistics on consumer lending and deposits rates that continued to climb (but not evenly and proportionally) as the regulator moved its key rate up. As the key rate was hiked last time by 75 bps at the end of October, the effect of this particular rate hike is yet to be...

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