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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Three-way presidential race in 2020 likely
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 06 Nov 2019

Three major coalitions will compete for the presidency in 2020: one led by PLD candidate Gonzalo Castillo; another by the PRM’s Luis Abinader; and a third by LFP, a new organization led by ex-president Leonel Fernández. The correlation of forces between these coalitions will depend upon three ...

The PLD is formally divided
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Oct 2019

Last night, the PLD was formally divided. In a televised speech, former President Leonel Fernández announced his resignation as President and as a member of the PLD. In the speech, Fernandez, who served as President three terms, used very hard qualifications against President Medina and his group...

​Tourist arrivals fall for the fourth consecutive month
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Oct 2019

Official figures of the arrival of tourists by air indicate that the bad moment of tourism is being longer than expected. In September, the total number of arrivals fell by 50 thousand (17%) compared to September 2018. It was the fourth consecutive month in which arrivals declined compared to las...

Fernandez's defeat can lead to a political reconfiguration
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Oct 2019

The electoral board is preparing to declare, Gonzalo Castillo as presidential candidate of the PLD. The final count gave Castillo an advantage over former President Fernandez of just 1.4%. Fernández was simply overpowered by President Danilo Medina and his candidate, who seem to have used all the...

Castillo projected to defeat Fernandez in the PLD primaries
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 06 Oct 2019

With a very narrow margin, Gonzalo Castillo, the dolphin of Danilo Medina, is projected as the winner of PLD primaries, defeating former president Leonel Fernández for the presidential candidacy. With 97.5% of the voting booth computed, Castillo reached 48.4% of the total votes, just 14 thousand ...

PLD primary could go either way
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 04 Oct 2019

The two main political parties -- the PLD, in power since 2004, and the PRM -- will hold their presidential primaries this weekend. All eyes are on the PLD contest, as in the PRM Luis Abinader is expected to handily trounce former president Hipólito Mejía. But in the PLD, the contest between Gon...

Castillo will face former President Fernandez in the PLD primaries
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 10 Sep 2019

Gonzalo Castillo has been selected, on behalf of the Danilo Medina faction, to run against former president Leonel Fernández in the PLD primaries on October 6. Castillo, who was Medina's public works minister for over seven years, has a limited political history, but has been very loyal to Medina...

Political uncertainty hampers growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 05 Sep 2019

Economic activity growth declined in Q2. GDP expansion reached 3.7%, compared with Q2 2018, and notably below the 5.7% observed in Q1. The result for H1 was growth of 4.7%. There is a broad consensus that political uncertainty has been the main cause for this slowdown. In July IMAE growth rebound...

With Medina’s retreat, Abinader likeliest to become president
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 06 Aug 2019

President Danilo Medina announced that he’d given up all efforts to run for a third consecutive term. Though he said his decision was motivated by his respect for the rules of the game, he in truth threw in the towel because he couldn’t achieve his goal. And he hasn’t permanently given up. Now...

Tourist arrivals declined in June
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 23 Jul 2019

The Central Bank has just published the official figures for the number of tourist arrivals for the month of June. There is much fear that the negative information that has circulated in the international press about the Dominican Republic as a tourist destination as a result of unfortunate and u...

President Medina gave up on re-election
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019 · 1 response

In a speech to the Nation, President Danilo Medina announced that he will not seek re-election. Therefore, there won't be any attempt to amend the Constitution. In our reading, although he did not recognize it, the President surrendered to the circumstances and accepted that he had no chance of a...

The roads are closing to re-election
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019

This is a crucial week in DR politics and the prospects for re-election are looking very bleak. It seems increasingly difficult to achieve it, and Medina is left with few alternatives. These are the facts: 1. The Medina group has not managed, so far, to get the votes it needs to pass a constituti...

Ruling PLD at the breaking point
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 03 Jul 2019

The ruling PLD’s political crisis is so severe that the party is on the brink of a split, a situation affecting the whole country. The conflict stems former President Leonel Fernández’s pursuit of the presidential nomination, while President Danilo Medina wants, at any cost, to prevent him from w...

A new corruption scandal shakes the country and hits Medina’s government hard
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 28 Jun 2019

A new scandal has shaken the country. As a result of an investigation that lasted months on behalf of a network of journalists, international media revealed that Odebrecht paid bribes for almost USD 40 million to be favored with the award of the contract for almost USD 2 bn for the construction o...

Standoff over presidential race must end in July
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 04 Jun 2019

Growth remained strong in Q1, with the IMAE estimating GDP growth at 5.7%, compared with Q1 2018. Inflation accelerated in March and April, by 0.65% and 0.53%, respectively. But at the close of Q1, accumulated 2019 inflation since January reached 0.86% q/q, and was up 1.47% y/y. These figures are...

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