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Mexico Macro Monitor: Banxico minutes reveal confidence on reducing inflation and interest rates
MEXICO · In Brief · 10 Apr 2025

Banxico is confident that inflation will continue to decline, downplays risks, and signals that the interest rate cut will persist according to the minutes from March 27 meeting The Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) unanimously decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis ...

Lula will likely appoint a quick replacement for the Communications Ministry, discussions continue on the IBS Management Committee rules, and Brazilian newspapers focus on Trump’s tariffs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2025

President Lula is expected to call Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) and leaders from União Brasil to discuss a replacement for Juscelino Filho (União) at the Ministry of Communications. A quick appointment aims to ease the tensions within the party caused by Juscelino Filho’s departure...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Apr 2025

The Russian financial markets have been under pressure recently, as the "tariff war" story affected markets worldwide. Fears of slower economic growth and an acceleration of inflation globally were extrapolated to the Russian story. Even though Russian financial markets remain ring-fenced from th...

Kazakhstan macro: Exchange rate in the spotlight amid tariff games
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 09 Apr 2025

The USD/KZT has been on a roller coaster in recent months, pushed up and down by various factors. After several months of natural depreciation that lasted until the end of January 2025, when the USD/KZT tested 530 in mid-January, the Kazakh currency moved below 500 a month later. Now, it is appro...

Federal budget performance improves in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 1Q25, federal budget revenues reached nearly R9.1 trln and were up by 3.8% y-o-y. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues accounted for 29.2% of total revenues and were down by 9.8% y-o-y. The non-O&G revenues grew by 10.6% y-o-y, which is more or less in line with the...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Consumer inflation is not improving and producer prices risk a spillover on consumer prices
MEXICO · In Brief · 09 Apr 2025

March inflation edged up slightly on non-core pressures, while core inflation's six-month stagnation raises doubts about monetary easing March consumer inflation rose slightly to 3.8% year-over-year, compared to 3.77% in February. The increase was driven by the non-core component, which reached 4...

The PGR filed charges against the Minister of Communications, causing him to step down; Motta is working toward building a positive legislative agenda; and the CCJ will vote on the work plan for the IBS Management Committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Apr 2025

Yesterday, the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) filed charges with the Supreme Federal Court (STF) against the Minister of Communications, Juscelino Filho (União), accusing him of misappropriating parliamentary fund transfers while serving as a federal deputy. Due to pressure from the PL to...

Deficit narrows in 2025 under baseline scenario, but surges if Gaza conflict escalates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Apr 2025

The Ministry of Finance announced yesterday that Israel recorded a deficit of NIS 13 billion ($3.5 billion) in March. The trailing 12-month (TTM) budget deficit declined to 5.2% of GDP, down from 5.3% in February, 5.8% in January, 6.9% in December, and a peak of 8.5% in September 2024. In the fir...

Good news on inflation at last: inflation fell more than expected in March
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Apr 2025

The headline rate was 0% mom, 4.7% yoy, down from 5.6% yoy in February, core inflation was 0.3% mom, 5.7%, down from 6.2% yoy, non-fuel inflation was 0.3% mom, 5.2% yoy, down from 5.6% yoy: Note: year-on-year changes in percent; Sources: KSH, own estimates Importantly, analysts expected the headl...

Lewandowski will submit a PEC on public security today, the opposition is pushing for amnesty for those involved in the January 8 attacks, and Justice Fux has called for a review of the charges against Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2025

Today, the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Ricardo Lewandowski, will present a Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) to Congress regarding public security. The proposal expands the federal government's powers and creates a mandatory fund to finance security activities. The opposition i...

Israel keeps rate at 4.5% as BoI highlights global and domestic risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Apr 2025 · 1 response

Policy rate held steady for ninth consecutive meeting The Bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% on April 7th, marking the ninth consecutive decision to maintain the current level. The move was widely expected by markets. The Monetary Committee adopted a slightly dovish...

Economics: The General Economic Policy Pre-Criteria for 2025-2026 retain the optimism of previous years
MEXICO · Report · 07 Apr 2025 · 1 response

As has become customary, the government’s latest policy pre-criteria are marked by excess optimism. The Pre-General Economic Policy Criteria text the Ministry of Finance sent Congress last week, which ushers in the budgeting process of Federal Public Administration entities, include revised macro...

Consequences of Trump's tariff surge and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Apr 2025

The Special Committee in the Lower House that will analyze the bill on income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month may be established. In the Senate, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) may approve the work plan for the bill that regulates the Tax Reform Managem...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Apr 2025

OVERVIEW ROUGH SEAS DEMAND A GOOD CAPTAIN The seismic effects triggered by Trump’s actions will still cause considerable damage until a new equilibrium can be reached. From tariffs calculated “on the back of the envelope” to the systematic assault on democratic institutions, the country is...

Politics: Radical teachers' struggle puts Sheinbaum government on the spot
MEXICO · Report · 07 Apr 2025

While President Claudia Sheinbaum has been largely successful in curbing the impact of social protests, the radical dissident teachers’ movement is giving her a run for her money. The official National Teachers Union (SNTE), the largest labor union in Mexico and Latin America, despite its past af...

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