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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Fiscal Risk Clouding the Horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 22 Sep 2020

The quality of a projection depends on the reliability of the indications given by the government about its economic policy bearings. If it respects the spending cap and wins approval of new reforms that strengthen the fiscal anchor, the economic recovery will be facilitated. But the speed of the...

China virus data – week ending September 21, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Sep 2020

There was a softening on the retail side, with slower auto and property sales, and a fall in metro rail activity. Film attendance trended higher for most of the week, which is positive for continued confidence in domestic safety measures. Traffic congestion was higher, as well.

Cyprus vetoes EU sanctions on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2020

On September 21 EU leaders on Brussels were unable to impose sanctions on Belarus due to Cypriot objections. Cyprus is the smallest EU member but all EU members have the right to veto sanctions. Belarussian opposition leader Svitlana Tikhanouskaya called for sanctions. Latvia and Lithuania are ad...

Russia reopens flights to 5 countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2020

On September 20 Moscow announced that flights will be resumed to South Korea, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus from September 27. Citizens and permanent residents of aforementioned countries shall be permitted to enter Russia. These four nations are also accepting Russian citizens. Russia alrea...

A fast but uncertain recovery
CHILE · Report · 21 Sep 2020

Economic activity continues to be hit hard by the pandemic, but seems to be recovering faster than expected. In July, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) surprised on the upside. In line with the IMACEC, the gradual recovery in retail sales continued in July, and the result surprised ...

Politics: Voters more critical, AMLO approval drops
MEXICO · Report · 21 Sep 2020

The latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey of opinion among the country’s registered voters recorded a continuing shift toward increasingly negative perceptions of the current state of the country and the extent to which the economic crisis is upending people’s lives six months into the pandemic. Since ...

The government counts on economic conditions potentially remaining bad in 2021
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Sep 2020

The are two new pieces of evidence for this. One is the weekend decision to extend the existing mandatory moratorium on the service of bank debt generated before March 2020. As PM Orbán announced on Saturday, the moratorium, which affects 1.6 million individuals and 60k enterprises in the context...

The debate on Renda Brasil and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2020

Senator Márcio Bittar (MDB-AC), rapporteur of the budget, may present a proposal creating a social program to replace the emergency aid payments. On Saturday, September 26, electoral advertising begins ahead of the November municipal elections. This week's Talking Points * Evaluation of po...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2020

* Russia’s economic recovery has continued slowly but there are energy price worries. * Nord Stream 2 continues, with some calls for Germany to cancel it. * In Belarus the president is holding on and has secured Russian support. * In Ukraine, the ceasefire is at risk.

Belarus will repay USD 330 million to Gazprom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2020

On September 20 Russian Finance Minister Siluanov announced that Belarus will use some of the latest 1.5 billion to repay a debt to Russian state gas company Gazprom. USD 1 billion will be lent to Belarus by the end of December 2020. A further USD 500 million will be lent early in 2021. Belarussi...

Deflation and renewed closure likely to support further loosening
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Sep 2020

Inflation in August surprised on the downside, with core inflation moving deeper into negative territory (-0.5% y/y). Despite recent indicators of growth acceleration, the renewed closure will clearly reverse this trend. The combination of slowing growth and pronounced deflation support a more ac...

Economics: The short budget leash of 2021
MEXICO · Report · 21 Sep 2020

This week we are following up on our analysis of the López Obrador Administration’s Economic Package for 2021, which is comprised of the General Economic Policy Criteria (GEPC), the Budget Proposal and the Federal Revenue Law Initiative. Unsurprisingly, this administration has handed us for ...

Deflation and renewed closure likely to support further loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Sep 2020

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 21.9.20 Inflation surprises on the downside Inflation remained stable m/m in August below market expectations of 0.2% m/m. Inflation in August declined to -0.8% y/y (from -0.6% in July). Core inflation move lower to -0.5% y/y (from -0.4% in July). Eig...

A date with fate
TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2020

Going deeply against the grain, we call only for minor sanctions from the EU at the upcoming Leaders’ Summit on September 26th, maintaining our view that short of a Biden Presidency, foreign policy shocks are very likely to be too mild, compared to the domestic political-cum-economic ones. Yet, w...

Russia keeps interest rate steady
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Sep 2020

On September 18 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) decided not to cut the interest rate. There have been several successive cuts over the past two years. Inflation increased surprisingly on Q3 2020 and the RUB fell. These moves may have promoted the September 18 decision. The Governor of the CBR sa...

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