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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Rate hold expected on elevated risks
ISRAEL · Report · 24 May 2024
1. We expect a rate-hold decision on Monday on the back of elevated geopolitical risks. 2. We maintain our inflation forecast of 3.3% in the NTM, which is at the high end of consensus. 3. The lack of demand for tradeable bonds by pension funds has supported higher yields.
Rate hold expected on Monday on elevated risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 May 2024
Geopolitics: Renewed fighting in Gaza continues, including Israel’s push into Rafah. The missile barrage from Lebanon continues as well. There is a renewed initiative to reach cease-fire in Gaza and the US is pushing hard to broker a US-Saudi-Israel agreement, but so far Netanyahu has been oppose...
US military drills in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 May 2024
On May 18 a US military aircraft landed in Moldova bringing troops from the US Air Force and the North Carolina National Guard. The Americans are there to take part in an exercise to practice tactics to respond to a civil emergency. The exercise is called "Shield of Peace". The US brought defense...
MPC: Mop up and wait
TURKEY · Report · 23 May 2024
There was no surprise at today’s CBRT/MPC meeting, with the Committee keeping the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged at 50%. The statement was also largely unchanged. There were some minor revisions to the first paragraph on the general state of the economy with references to a “limited d...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 May 2024 · 1 response
The situation in the FX market remained relatively stable. A steady inflow of FX earnings contributed to the ruble strengthening (close to R/$90) amid moderate trading activity. Most likely, in the near future, the ruble will fluctuate in a narrow range of R/$90-92. Its potential for appreciation...
The vote on the Mover bill has been postponed once again, the House approved the bill that penalizes illegal occupants of rural properties and public buildings, and Haddad said a 3% inflation target is “very demanding”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 May 2024
The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), once again postponed the vote on the Mover bill in the plenary of the House. The decision was taken after a meeting with the leaders and the rapporteur of the matter, Átila Lira (PP-PI). Yesterday, the House concluded the vote on the bill that esta...
EU approves use of proceeds from Russian frozen assets for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2024
On May 21 the decision in relation to up to EUR 3 billion was announced. 90% of this will go to the European Peace Facility and it will pay EU countries for the military equipment they donate to Ukraine. There has been discussion of confiscating the frozen Russian assets but several EU member sta...
The second Tax Reform regulation bill may be submitted next week, Lira announced the Tax Reform working groups, and Haddad says the taxation of international purchases will not compensate for payroll tax relief
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2024
According to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, the second bill on Tax Reform regulation, specifically on the Steering Committee that will discuss the federal distribution of revenue from the Tax on Goods and Services (IBS), will be sent to Congress next week, before the holiday on May 30....
Past the bottom of the inflation cycle
HUNGARY · Report · 22 May 2024
The past month has brought about no major surprises in Hungary; everything was largely in line with expectations. The economy is still quite weak, but consumer demand, construction activities and tourism showed distinct signs of consolidation in Q1. However, other areas, such as industrial output...
Slide Presentation: Caucasus and Central Asia - Economic Upswings and Political Prospects
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 May 2024
Get insight into the macroeconomic and political outlook for Armenia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Azerbaijan with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Caucasus and Central Asia - Economic Upswings and Political Prospects".
Kazakhstan macro: recent balance of payments statistics point to gradual decoupling from Russia
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 May 2024
In recent days, the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the country’s Bureau of National Statistics published their foreign trade and balance of payments statistics for 1Q24, suggesting that the trade surplus widened while the current account deficit narrowed. Imports grew steadily until mid-2023 and...
The MNB base rate was reduced by another 50bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 May 2024
At today's monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council decided to cut the base rate further to 7.25%, exactly as expected. After the meeting, vice governor Virág spoke again, as usual. He painted a positive picture, mentioning a disinflationary global environment, the recent increase in in...
President Boluarte under fire; real GDP to accelerate in Q2; BCRP’s easing cycle nears its end
PERU · Report · 21 May 2024
We cover three topics in this report. First, we discuss the likelihood of Congress impeaching President Dina Boluarte. Then, we evaluate Peru’s economic performance, suggesting that real GDP remained stagnant throughout Q1 2024. We expect a rebound in Q2 2024, on the back of fiscal stimulus, and ...
The Senate may vote on the urgent status of the payroll tax exemption bill, the financial impact of the Five Year PEC will be reviewed, and the House may vote on the Mover bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2024
Today, the Senate may vote on the urgent status request for the bill (PL 1,847/2024) that implements the agreement between Congress and the Executive Office on payroll relief, both for companies and municipalities. The President of the Federal Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), said yesterday that...
Election Monitor IV: Optimistic politicians and unpredictable voters
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 May 2024
In less than 10 days, on May 29, the SA voters will have their day to express their preferences and put an end to the current cacophony of political noise, baseless promises and over-optimistic expectations of many political leaders. Recently, the country’s top court, the Constitutional Court ...