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Debt Restructuring Deal Reached
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2024

Ukrainian authorities and private bondholders have reached an agreement on debt restructuring. Details are already in all media outlets: nominal losses of 37%, bond repayments starting in 2029, and coupon payments from 2025 (starting with 1.75% in 2025). Sources informed about the negotiations co...

Rental price inflation accelerates, and the labor market tightens
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Jul 2024

1. Uncertainty regarding a potential cease-fire persists, as Israel targets Yemen in retaliation for a drone attack on Tel Aviv. 2. Housing rental prices accelerated in June, pushing core inflation higher. 3. The labor market remains tight, with unemployment low and job vacancies high.

Rental price inflation accelerates and the labor market tightens; shekel weakens slightly as hostilities continue
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Jul 2024

Geopolitics: Israel bombed strategic sites in Yemen (oil refineries and other facilities at the Hodeida port) in retaliation to the Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv (killing one Israeli and wounding several people). On Sunday, missiles fired at Eilat were intercepted. Netanyahu is set to travel to...

Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jul 2024

On July 18 the two warring nations each received 95 Prisoners of War (POW) back. Both governments confirmed the exchange took place. There was also an exchange in June 2024. There have been 54 exchanges since the start of the war. The corpses of soldiers have also been exchanged.  One of those se...

The Lukoil case: Zelensky is shooting back at Orbán, but beware of the ocean of false information on the subject
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jul 2024

Starting two days ago, Ukraine stopped transiting crude oil shipments from Russia's Lukoil through the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline towards the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia. This is because Lukoil was put on Ukraine's sanction list by a presidential decree issued in late June. ...

Ukrainian sanctions cut off Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jul 2024

On July 18 it was reported that the Russian supermajor Lukoil can no longer send its oil via pipelines through Ukraine. It may seem astonishing that Ukraine allowed this for two and a half hears in the war. Hungary and Slovakia stated that Lukoil was not delivering any oil now. Slovakia and Hunga...

Short and sweet
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jul 2024 · 1 response

The marquee politics event of the week was the introduction of tax legislation to the Grand Assembly, with its core tenets intact. The marquee non-event was a tiny hike to monthly pensions of retirees in the lowest income bracket, costing the budget only a trifling sum. In his uncharacteristicall...

Zelensky attends UK Cabinet
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2024

On July 18 Zelensky arrived in the United Kingdom for the European Political Community Summit. The EPC was founded in 2022 just after the Ukraine War began. This is the 4th ever meeting of the EPC. The EPC includes all European countries from Iceland to Turkey, except Russia and Belarus. Zelensky...

Kazakhstan macro: budgetary policy continues to evolve, reshaping the macro environment
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Jul 2024

In the past few days, the Bureau of National Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank of Kazakhstan published their regular monthly economic and financial statistics, which pointed to a continuous deceleration of economic growth amid moderating inflation. In such an environment,...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait finds offshore oil, Masdar issues green bond, Islamic State attacks Omani mosque, ICJ rules on Israeli occupation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jul 2024 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * PIF signed agreements with three Chinese renewable firms to establish local manufacturing. * Bond issuance is planned to refinance the $13bn bridge loan for Aramco Gas Pipelines. * Masdar issued $1bn in 5-10 year green bo...

Haddad announced a R$ 15 billion budget cut to comply with the fiscal framework, the Voa Brasil program will begin next week, and the PGR opposed a PT request for the STF to suspend the concession for Sabesp
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2024

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced yesterday that the government will make a cut of R$ 15 billion to comply with the fiscal framework this year. There will be R$ 11.2 billion of blocked funds, due to spending above the 2.5% limit provided for in the framework, and R$ 3.8 billion in contin...

President Lula will participate in the Budget Execution Board meeting, Congress informally recesses today, and Congress will hold a few concentrated voting efforts before the October municipal elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2024

This afternoon, President Lula will participate in the Budget Execution Board meeting to discuss this year's budget cuts and contingencies. Attending the meeting will be the Chief of Staff, Rui Costa, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, the Minister of Planning and Budget, Simone Tebet, and...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2024

The Russian FX market operates in a specific mode in the aftermath of US sanctions against the local stock exchange and its subsidiaries, which were introduced about a month ago. Problems with the settlement for imports reduced the demand for FX. The ruble became too strong, and this recent appre...

Plunge in liquidity growth and weaker growth prospects for 2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 17 Jul 2024 · 1 response

Economic activity in May 2024 grew at 4.3% y/y, and although the cumulative expansion in January-May 2024 (4.9% y/y) remained close to the potential growth rate of 5%, questions remain about whether this pace of growth can be maintained, if the plunge in the economy's liquidity seen in June 2024 ...

No agreement was reached on payroll tax relief in the Senate, Lula’s statement yesterday worried the market regarding commitment to the fiscal framework, and the CCJ may vote on the Central Bank PEC
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2024

As expected, no agreement was reached on the compensatory measures for payroll tax relief. Consequently, the vote on the bill was postponed until August 30. According to Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), the idea is to refine the details of this issue by then. Yesterday, Lula said, “You ...

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