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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Up, Up and Away: Inflationary Impulses Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

Recent inflation dynamics are showing unfavorable signs that require attention. IPCA-15 underlying measures accelerated, and the pressure is expected to continue, reflecting an economic activity close to or above full employment. Simultaneously, the depreciation of the real causes an additional s...

EU imposes sanctions on Belarus amid tensions with Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024

On June 29 the EU said it was restricting trade with this Russian ally. The EU says that Belarus has bought dual-use items from the EU to re-sell to Russia even when this is specifically forbidden by the sale contract. The European Union is now preventing that. The items are navigation equipment,...

Politics: The second round of six Sheinbaum cabinet choices is also reassuring, but the toughest decisions remain
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2024

A week after winning kudos for her first batch of a half dozen cabinet picks Claudia Sheinbaum reprised that performance by unveiling six more who also garnered praise, even from some of López Obrador’s critics. The president-elect again reassured economic and political actors by bringing in peop...

Economics: Recent economic indicators suggest that 2024 GDP growth will break slightly below 2%
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2024

The economy continued to slow during the second quarter. After first quarter aggregate demand slowed to 2.6% YoY, indicators for April revealed a further loss of momentum, with the monthly GDP proxy (0.9% yoy) sputtering to its lowest reading in 30 months. Industrial activity only crawled 0.6% hi...

Likely scenario: one rate cut for the year?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024

As expected by the markets, the BSP decided to keep its policy rates steady at 6.5%, the highest in 17 years last Thursday, June 27. Accordingly, interest rates on overnight deposit and lending facilities remained unchanged at 6.0% and 7%, respectively. Now focusing on the exchange rate path, the...

The House Working Group on Tax Reform may present its report on July 3, the rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill should present his report this week, and the CCJ will discuss the PEC on the Central Bank’s autonomy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

The report from the House Working Group on Tax Reform regulation is expected to be presented on Wednesday, July 3. The House President, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is attempting to secure the approval of the text in the plenary next week. Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-MG), the rapporteur of the bill ...

PM Orbán and two other European politicians launched a new European Parliament faction today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024

PM Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP, together with Czechia's ANO party (which left the liberal Renew faction in June) and Austria's Freedom Party (FPÖ, so far member of the radical right-winger Identity and Democracy faction) announced the establishment of a new party group within the European Parliament, und...

Turnout will be crucial
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2024 · 1 response

At this stage, the electoral outlook hinges on how the government decides to neutralize Edmundo González Urrutia's lead in the polls and how those decisions will bear on voter turnout. We have formulated five scenarios for the next 30 days. In each, the government makes a distinct cost-benefit an...

Will the Bank of Jamaica pivot avoid a policy mistake? IMF lauds resilience just as Hurricane Beryl approaches
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

In an interesting piece of timing, on Friday, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), in its own words, “pivots to easing monetary policy” just as the IMF lauded Jamaica’s “resilience” reforms literally the day before Beryl was upgraded to a hurricane. The BOJ cited as its reason that the May 2024 annual i...

Election Monitor VI: SA launches its 7th Administration; Ramaphosa’s second term is a new chapter in a rapidly shifting political structure
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Jul 2024

After weeks of socio-political anxiety and following intense political horse trading, President Ramaphosa unveiled the composition of his 2nd Cabinet Ministers. Unlike his first term, his party could not secure sufficient voter support to govern alone. Instead, the ANC decided to invite a wide ra...

Business and consumer sentiment less optimistic in Q2 2024
PHILIPPINES · Report · 01 Jul 2024

Notwithstanding the country’s real economic growth of 5.7 percent in Q1 2024, business sentiment in the Philippines turned out less optimistic in Q2 of 2024, with the overall confidence index (CI) recorded at 32.1 percent from 33.1 percent in Q1 of the current year, as reported in the Business Ex...

Pace of bond issuance remains steady, MoF confident in reaching its fiscal target
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Jul 2024

1. Private consumption growth has decelerated but the level of consumption remains strong. 2. The pace of government bond issuance remains steady, and the MoF is reporting robust tax revenues in June. 3. We expect a rate-hold decision next week on elevated geopolitical risks.

Hello early elections, bye-bye ESP?
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2024

The main opposition leader Ozel wants early elections before or by end-2025. If Erdogan turns down the offer, CHP will not support any early election legislation. This means, Erdogan must either take up Ozel on his offer or scramble to find 360 votes in the Grand Assembly to send a new constituti...

Pace of government debt issuance remains steady, tax revenues remain strong in June
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jun 2024

Geopolitics: Israel continues to operate in Gaza targeting specific areas. The missile barrage from Lebanon has decreased somewhat compared to the previous week. There is a vague renewed initiative for a cease-fire with Hamas, according to the US. Although the Supreme Court ruled that the ultra-o...

Ukraine signs defense pacts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jun 2024

On June 27 President Zelensky was in Brussels where he signed defense pacts with the EU, Lithuania and Estonia. The agreements deal with 9 areas of security and defense policy.  The EU's statement affirmed its unflagging support for Ukraine for as long as it takes. This is presumably designed to ...

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