NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - GULF COUNTRIES REGIONAL OUTLOOK...

Private consumption rebounds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Jan 2024

Private consumption has recovered quickly. Credit card purchases increased by 12% m/m in December following 8% in November, wiping out the 16% decline in October. This rebound in domestic consumption is due to the cancelling of limitations on activity and lack of Israelis traveling abroad. This p...

Base rate reduced by 75bps only today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jan 2024

At today's meeting, the Monetary Council decided to reduce the base rate to 10%, by 75 bps, despite a recent indication by the MNB that the monthly pace of rate cuts may be accelerated to 100bps this time. After the meeting, Vice Governor Virág said that the current level and direction of the CPI...

Georgian PM resigns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2024

On January 19 Irakli Garibashvili made his announcement. This was his second term as PM. It is thought that Irakli Kobakhidze will become prime minister. He is chairman of the Georgian Dream Party, to which Garibashvili also belongs. The constitution requires that the new prime minister must subm...

The Central Bank meets to decide the Selic, union representatives will meet with the government to discuss the civil servants' strike, and working groups on Tax Reform will be created
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jan 2024

Today, the Central Bank meets to decide on the basic interest rate (Selic). The Selic is expected to be reduced to 11.25%. Pressure from civil servants for salary hikes remains strong. Employees and representatives of the Central Bank union (Sinal) will meet with the Ministry of Management and In...

Martinelli's political fate and debt sustainability analysis: both with implications for 2024
PANAMA · Report · 30 Jan 2024

Ricardo Martinelli faces the outcome of his appeal in the corruption case against him. Media and analysts are speculating about the date of the Supreme Court decision, likely confirming the guilty verdict. We conducted a debt sustainability analysis aiming to estimate the level of primary bala...

Stability into the election
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Jan 2024

Indonesia's general election is already around the corner—it will be held on February 14, 2024. The incumbent, President Joko Widodo, is ineligible to run for a third time, based on the Indonesian Constitution. The presidential candidates for the current election are former Governor of Metropolit...

The Evergrande court case - what's next?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Jan 2024

The Hong Kong high court ordered one of China’s largest property developers, China Evergrande Group, to liquidate, theoretically ending several years of uncertainty about the future of the developer. The court appointed a Hong Kong restructuring firm, Alvarez and Marsal, to handle the liquidation...

Russian macro 2023: Feels like an ordinary year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Rosstat’s recent revisions of the national accounts for 2021 and 2022 suggest that the Russian economy performed somewhat better in those years than previously estimated. As the quarterly GDP statistics were revised accordingly, it looks as though the current growth trends appear more positive th...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

THE BET ON POLARIZATION Lula has entered 2024 facing a challenging political scenario, to say the least. Despite decent economic growth and lower inflation in 2023, his approval ratings are not comfortable, and the economic outlook for this year is more modest. Besides public money to boost de...

Putin registered as an election candidate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2024

On January 29 the announcement was made by the Central Election Commission (CEC). The Putin campaign successfully submitted the requisite number of signatures for his registration, which is 315,000. A small number were invalidated because of mistakes. The signatures had to come from at least 40 o...

Politics: Violence, elections and political control—Part One
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

In this issue of the Political Outlook we take a look at the interrelated questions of the presence of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the part of such criminal gangs. The bottom line is that the expansion of organized crime...

Maduro tightens the reins
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Maduro's government started off the year with an offensive to consolidate hardline positions in the face of threats it’s facing in this electoral year. It has three strategic objectives: first, strengthen its leadership and bureaucratic and electoral apparatuses; second, promote division and abst...

What to expect from the municipal elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

In the last week of the congressional recess, the government is negotiating solutions to a series of disagreements with Congress. Payroll tax relief and vetoes of congressional funds continue to create tension. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is trying to discuss friction between...

Economics: Data in recent weeks show internal demand leading strong growth, core prices fanning inflation and non-automotive manufacturing falling
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

January delivered further evidence that the Mexican economy performed better in 2023 than had been expected thanks in large part to a resurgence of the construction sector. This sector has benefitted from the combination of massive government outlays for its signature infrastructure projects and ...

The STF decides on the lifetime review of the INSS, Lewandowski takes over as Minister of Justice, and Vale discusses the appointment of a new president
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) is expected to adjudicate an appeal submitted by the Attorney General's Office (AGU) against a decision that recognized the right of retirees to opt for the application of the most beneficial rule in calculating the retirement benefit (lifetime review of the INSS)....