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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Israel cuts bond issuance in August, suggesting fiscal pressures remain contained
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Jul 2025

The Israeli Ministry of Finance plans to raise only NIS 5 billion in tradable bonds in August, through just two weekly auctions. This reduced issuance pace - partly due to summer seasonality -suggests the government does not expect a significant fiscal deterioration beyond its current deficit tar...

Hanging tight
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jul 2025

Costa Rica’s economy is entering period of underperformance, masked by currency appreciation and near-zero inflation. GDP growth is slowing more sharply than expected, driven by weakening domestic demand, restrictive monetary policy and global trade tensions, particularly due to new tariffs impo...

Governors issued a joint letter to the president of Camex and VP Alckmin, big tech companies met with VP Alckmin to discuss Trump’s tariffs, and the Central Bank is expected to announce the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jul 2025

Governors from the states of Minas Gerais, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and São Paulo issued a joint letter to the president of Brazil’s Foreign Trade Chamber (Camex) and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, requesting a postponement of the decision regarding tariff reduc...

Q2 GDP data met expectations, exceptionally
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jul 2025

As we reported yesterday, all forecasters expected GDP growth to be slightly positive in Q2, after being similarly negative in Q1. And they have proven to be right. In fact, real GDP growth reached +0.4% qoq, +0.2% yoy, the former after a revised -0.1% qoq in the first quarter. This also means th...

Temporary contraction in economic activity in June due to the war; slowdown unlikely to affect monetary policy
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2025

Summary of key findings The Bank of Israel’s composite index fell by 0.67% in June, due to the war with Iran. The decline reflects a temporary slowdown in economic activity, especially in private consumption and employment. Despite the recent slowdown, we expect the interest rate to remain unchan...

Selic, default, and consumption: what to expect?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jul 2025

Consumption shows signs of slowing down in the second quarter, indicating that contractionary monetary policy is possibly already taking effect. The increase in the interest rate occurs in a scenario of high household indebtedness, which should exert additional pressure on default rates. Our ...

The government continues to negotiate countermeasures to Trump’s tariffs, Brazilian senators will meet with U.S. lawmakers today, and the Central Bank’s Copom meets today to discuss the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jul 2025

A contingency plan prepared by the Ministries of Finance, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), and Foreign Affairs was presented yesterday to President Lula in an effort to mitigate the impact of the sweeping U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports, scheduled to take effect on Friday. Sources within th...

Tariffs, secondary tariffs and Q2 GDP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jul 2025

The preliminary Q2 GDP data is due tomorrow. Following -0.2% qoq, -0.4% yoy in Q1, Portfolio.hu's analyst poll shows a median forecast of 0.2% qoq, 0% yoy for Q2, with 0.7% average growth for this year and 2.7% growth for 2026. A short while ago, our quarterly forecast update included a slightly ...

Intel to close Costa Rica assembly plant: a wake-up call for a high-value investment strategy
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 28 Jul 2025

Last week, semiconductor giant Intel announced it will shut down its assembly and testing operations in Costa Rica, relocating them in Malaysia and Vietnam. The move represents a significant setback for the country, given Intel’s outsized role in boosting service export figures. Prior to the comp...

A New Era?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jul 2025

The events of July 18, 2025 mark an important milestone in U.S.–Venezuela relations. Maximum pressure has given way to pragmatic understanding. The events of that day demonstrate that communication channels between the two governments are working, such that a complex and delicate negotiation ...

Politics: Violence and homicides—how are they measured and how much progress has been made?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2025

Public security is the number one issue for most Mexicans, and addressing, improving and resolving this issue is of key importance for the current presidential administration. In fact, it is the policy question in which President Sheinbaum has most clearly—although not explicitly—differentiated h...

Brazil vs. the US and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2025

On Friday, August 1, a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the United States is scheduled to take effect. There is widespread anticipation regarding the measures the Brazilian government will announce in response. The Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Services will hold daily press briefings throug...

Economics: The data released in July shows the economy remains stagnant
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2025

The IGAE for May showed a 0.4% yoy uptick but on average, from January to May 2025, the Mexican economy showed no growth. The public finance report for that same month shows some apparent strength thanks to robust income tax and VAT collections alongside spending and debt reductions. However, the...

Trump’s tariffs are set to take effect this Friday, the government is preparing a series of countermeasures in response, and the Central Bank will meet this week to decide on the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2025

A 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the United States is scheduled to take effect on Friday, August 1. Negotiations between the two countries have been tense and have shown little progress. Brazil’s Ministries of Finance, Industry and Trade, and Foreign Affairs are preparing a set of countermeas...

The CBR cut the key rate by 200 bps as inflation subsides
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2025

On July 25, the CBR’s Board of Directors cut the key rate by 200 bps to 18% and announced it expects the policy rate to average 18.8-19.6% this year. Therefore, the regulator hinted at another 200 bps cut, most likely in September, as August will likely be deflationary. The CBR sees inflationary ...

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