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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Mexico Macro Monitor: In February the fiscal deficit dropped sharply, however it is unlikely the annual target will be met
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Apr 2025

By February 2025, public finances strengthened. Total revenues rose by 4.8% in real annual terms (driven by a 10.1% increase in tax revenues), while spending saw an exceptional decline of 17%. This sharply reduced the fiscal deficit, measured by the broad Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (PSB...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Banxico prioritizes support for economic slowdown vs. controlling inflation
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Apr 2025

Banxico (Mexico's Central Bank) decided to lower its target interest rate to 9%. This confirms that the central concern of the Governing Board is that the ex-ante real interest rate remains too high, and it appears to prioritize economic recovery over inflation control—the latter being its primar...

Lula intensifies political negotiations and prepares a cabinet reshuffle, the Lower House debates the amnesty bill amid political polarization, and the Senate advances tax reform and a trade reciprocity agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2025

President Lula returned last weekend from a trip to Japan. He traveled with several members of Congress, including Speaker of the House Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP). Lula pledged to improve relations with Congress by holding more meetings with poli...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2025

- Trump threatens with 25-50 per cent oil tariffs on Moscow if a ceasefire agreement is not reached. - Moscow shows signs of rapprochement to new HTS authorities in Damascus. - Trump wants right of first offer regarding projects to develop Ukraine’s resources. - Russia forc...

Sanctions tighten rapidly
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Apr 2025

Over the last few days, news regarding the Trump administration's sanctions on Venezuelan oil has pointed to an unprecedented tightening of the sanctions framework, which will substantially impact the country's oil revenues. The revocation of licenses and comfort letters, the March 24 Executiv...

Politics: Mexico’s police forces are ill-equipped to deal with heightened public insecurity
MEXICO · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Public insecurity is on the rise in Mexico. The latest national victimization survey indicates a 17% increase in crimes in 2023. The three most frequent crimes are fraud, robbery and assaults on public transportation or on the street, and extortion. The vast majority of these crimes, about 90%, g...

Israeli geopolitics: Trump, Tehran, and turmoil at home—Israel faces regional threats and political unrest
ISRAEL · Report · 31 Mar 2025 · 1 response

Key takeaways from this report: - A potential end to the Ukraine war under Trump’s mediation might allow Russia to redirect its focus back to the Middle East, causing destabilization from Israel’s perspective. - American-Iranian negotiations may ease direct confrontation but might agi...

Another minister with an impossible job
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Mar 2025 · 1 response

The first impression one gets from the latest economic activity results is that Colombia did not take advantage of an enormous opportunity offered by international markets and economic conditions. Oil and coal prices were high over the last two years, as was demand, and 2024 economic growth in th...

Slide Presentation - Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead
ECUADOR · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Get insight into the Ecuadorian presidential debate and its implications for Ecuador with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead". 

Economics: Amid shifting tariff threats, and cautious investors and consumers, indicators confirm a weakening cycle
MEXICO · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Indicators released in March confirmed that Mexico’s economy continues to stall. GDP decelerated to half a percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2024 under the weight of a sharp drop in investment and a further slowing of private consumption, as consumers grow more cautious and pessimistic ab...

Mixed prospects
CENTRAL AMERICA · Presentation · 31 Mar 2025

Guatemala posted solid economic growth in 2024, with GDP rising 3.7%, supported by strong remittances, resilient domestic demand and improving investor confidence under the new administration. Inflation fell to 1.7%, reserves hit a record high and the fiscal deficit narrowed to 1% of GDP. While m...

Why Bolsonaro is not yet defeated and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Lower House Speaker Hugo Motta is meeting with party leaders to discuss the amnesty bill for those involved in the anti-democratic acts of January 8. Motta may also announce the rapporteur for the bill on income tax reform. Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM) may present a timetable for PLP 108/24, wh...

Yellow lights flashing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2025

The inflationary scenario remains challenging despite some signs of economic slowdown. The economy is expected to continue operating at full employment, maintaining inflationary pressure, as revealed by its underlying indicators. In the labor market in particular, the slow adjustment of the un...

Lower inflation means rate cuts, but pushback is building from inflation and stability concerns
PHILIPPINES · Report · 31 Mar 2025

We believe that benign inflation readings and forecasts should allow the BSP to sustain its easing cycle at least twice this year and in baby steps. Modest easing is critical when uncertainties abound, particularly regarding the prospects for growth and financial stability. With a potentially wea...

Still a plateau? MPC arguments continue to weaken
POLAND · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025

Today’s flash release of inflation for March 2025 by Statistics Poland shows the same 4.9% year-on-year (y/y) for the third consecutive month. Our estimate of the core inflation in March stands at 3.5% y/y (net of food, energy and fuel prices). As far as the components of inflation are concerned,...

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