Country Insights

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Zelenskiy removes the Head of Secret Service and Chief Prosecutor
UKRAINE - In Brief 18 Jul 2022

Yesterday, late in the night President Volodymyr Zelenskiy informed that he removed the Head of Secret Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) Ivan Bakanov and the Chief Prosecutor Iryna Venediktova. In the case of Bakanov, the formal reasoning for his displacement were the failures defending the South from ...

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Inflation in line with expectations as rental prices accelerate
ISRAEL - In Brief 17 Jul 2022

Inflation: June’s CPI was in line with consensus

 * Inflation increased by 0.4% and by 4.4% y/y (up from 4.1% in May).

 * Core inflation accelerated to 4.1% from 3.65%, as housing rental prices (OER) increased by 4.1% y/y from 3.4%.

 * Inflation is more b...

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Long holiday, short update
TURKEY - Report 17 Jul 2022 1 response
Having covered much of the recent developments in our Monthly (of July 8, 2022), we provide a brief update in this post-Eid Weekly Tracker. On the politics side, the two most important developments, which may sound obscure and trite to our readership -- and, in that order -- are the accelerati...

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Western countries mulling more sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Jul 2022

On July 16 the US Treasury Secretary said her meeting with 19 other finance ministers were productive. They discussed putting a cap on the price they will pay for Russian oil. However, not all 20 countries agree on a solution. No formal communique has been issued by the G20: the Indonesians is...

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Russian missile strikes on Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Jul 2022

On July 14 a Russian missile hit Vinnytsia and killed 23 people. Ukraine says they were civilians. Russia says it attacked that building because it was hosting a military meeting. Zelensky said the attack was ''terrorism''. On July 15 missiles struck a university in Mykolaiv.

The Russi...

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Russian Macro: Adjusting to a new reality
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 15 Jul 2022
As time goes by, trade relations between Russia and the EU that used to be Russia's major trade partner are shrinking. Sanctions on Russia gradually kept evolving into something which Iran had experienced for decades, keeping its economy alive, albeit in a rather peculiar fashion. At this stage, ...

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Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 15 Jul 2022

Despite the ongoing easing of capital controls, USD and EUR remain toxic in the eyes of domestic investors and corporates. As a result, despite decreased oil prices and verbal interventions by the authorities aimed at weakening the Russian currency, the ruble remains strong. The government has...

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Webinar Replay: Argentina's economic outlook after Guzmán's resignation
ARGENTINA - Report 15 Jul 2022
What impact will Silvina Batakis have on the IMF agreement? Is Argentina veering towards a new debt restructuring? What are the fundamentals of President Fernández's "growth crisis"? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Esteban Fernández Medrano discussing the imp...

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GULF WEEKLY: Saudi opens airspace to Israel, oil touches post-Ukraine low, Libyan oil blockade may end
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 15 Jul 2022 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly fell to $94 on Thursday, its lowest since the invasion of Ukraine, amidst recession fears. * OPEC sees 2023 demand rising to 103m b/d (and 105.4m in Q4), well ahead of the IEA forecast. * Libya’s oil blockade ...

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The PEC on Fuels was enacted, Congress reviewed presidential vetoes, Congress will enter recess today, and the party convention period begins next week
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 15 Jul 2022
President Jair Bolsonaro participated in the session that enacted the PEC. In a direct message to women, Bolsonaro stressed that 2/3 of Auxílio Brasil payments are going toward women. The government expects the benefits to begin in August. One of the presidential vetoes that was reviewed provided...

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Inflation acceleration supports front loading rate tightening
ISRAEL - In Brief 15 Jul 2022

June’s CPI in line with market expectations

Inflation in June increased by 0.4% m/m (4.4% y/y, up from 4.1% last month), in line with market expectations, while we were expecting a slightly higher print of 0.5%. Inflation in June was impacted by an 8.6% hike in petrol ...

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Xi Jinping’s Visit to Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 14 Jul 2022
Xi Jinping’s chose Hong Kong as his first trip out of the mainland in two years as a symbol of global power and an expression of support for the incoming Chief Executive. His comments, along with other recent events, provide some clues to how China intends to govern Hong Kong. We can conclude tha...

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The House approved the PEC on Fuels, Congress will now focus on reviewing presidential vetoes, and the Ministry of Economy will publish a new set of macroeconomic parameters
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 14 Jul 2022
Enactment should take place between today and tomorrow and the benefits should start being paid in August. The measures, in particular the increase in Auxílio Brasil payments and the gas voucher, are expected to have a positive impact on President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity. Rodrigo Pacheco said...

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Slide Presentation: Argentina's economic outlook after Guzmán's resignation
ARGENTINA - Report 14 Jul 2022
Access the slide presentation from the GlobalSource Partners webinar, "Argentina's economic outlook after Guzmán's resignation", which featured Esteban Fernández Medrano discussing the implications of Guzmán's sudden resignation for President Fernández's political future and Argentina's econom...

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Surprise interest rate hike
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 14 Jul 2022

After telling reporters some weeks ago that he preferred to do interest rate hikes 25bp at a time, Governor Felipe Medalla announced today that the Monetary Board decided to raise policy rates by a hefty 75bp in an off cycle move. This followed two separate 25bp increase in the last two month...