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Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 24, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Oct 2025

The past week marked the near completion of the first phase of the Trump peace plan, including a fragile ceasefire, the return of all surviving hostages and the bodies of about 15 of the 28 killed, large-scale humanitarian aid to Gaza, and a partial Israeli withdrawal to the “yellow line.” U.S. a...

Lula will meet with Trump on Sunday, the government should submit revenue-boosting bills to Congress, and the deadline for Bolsonaro to file a motion for clarification expires on Monday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2025

President Lula will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday in Malaysia. The Brazilian government hopes to make progress in negotiations over the sanctions imposed on Brazil. In the coming days, the government will send Congress a bill to tax betting companies, fintechs, and interest on e...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is Uzbekistan poised to close the chapter on fiscal profligacy?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Oct 2025

Wading through the 138 pages of Uzbekistan’s 2026–2028 Fiscal Strategy is a test of endurance, and of language skills, since the document exists only in Uzbek. However, it is very much worth the effort as it provides a glimpse into government's thinking about the fiscal envelope in the next coupl...

NBU holds rate at 15.5% amid concerns over depreciation pressures
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Oct 2025

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% for the fifth time in a row, to the dissatisfaction of the financial sector, which had expected the regulator to begin an easing cycle in Q4 2025, as outlined in its September communication. According to the press release, the NBU is concerned ...

The STF published the ruling that convicted Bolsonaro, the House approved a PEC that grants lawmakers oversight authority over autonomous agencies, and the Senate will hold a public hearing on income tax reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2025

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) yesterday published the ruling of its First Panel, which convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants of attempting a coup d’état. This opens a five-day window for filing motions for clarification, which seek to address specific points in th...

Kazakhstan macro: recent economic and financial data suggest a coming slowdown in growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Oct 2025 · 1 response

Our previous report highlighted that despite strong economic growth, several paradoxes have surfaced in the Kazakh economy, suggesting a potential slowdown amid inevitable economic policy changes. One such shift involves an evolving fiscal policy and a seemingly more cautious use of public funds....

MPC does the expected, says disinflation slowed, risks more pronounced
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2025 · 1 response

The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by 100 bps to 39.5% today, in line with (median) expectations, which we had posited as a compromise move of sorts in our Sunday post, so we were not surprised. The key change in today’s statement pertains to the paragraph on inflation developments and outlo...

2026 National Budget: the challenges of governance and fiscal consolidation
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Oct 2025

The Philippines' 2026 P6.8-trillion national budget reflects the government’s effort to sustain social spending but exposes persistent weaknesses in fiscal governance. Despite reallocations from flood control to education, health, and food security, unprogrammed appropriations worth P250 billion...

Industry posts increasingly unimpressive performance
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2025

Rosstat reported that industrial output grew by 0.7% y-o-y in 9M25. In 3Q25 and September alone, it increased by 0.5% and 0.3% y-o-y, respectively. However, seasonally adjusted figures show the industry contracted by 1.0% m-o-m last month. The mining sector seems to be stabilizing, though still i...

Unmasking corruption and irregularities in public works: disasters, governance and growth
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Oct 2025

The Philippines again tops the 2025 World Risk Index as the world’s most disaster-prone nation—an outcome shaped as much by geography as by weak governance. Typhoons, floods, and earthquakes expose not only natural hazards but also institutional failures: substandard infrastructure, unfinished pr...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2025

Despite considerable geopolitical turbulence, the FX market remains surprisingly calm, showing only moderate ruble volatility. The money market situation, however, appears mixed. RUONIA is trading well below the key rate (16.4% vs 17%), yet banks’ net liquidity position with the CBR hovers near z...

Dominican Republic issues USD 1.6 bn 10-year bond at 5.875%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Oct 2025 · 1 response

With today's issuance of a USD 1.6 billion sovereign bond, the Dominican Government covers its financing needs for 2025. The bond carries a 10-year maturity and an annual interest rate of 5.875%. Investor demand for the placement reached USD 5.0 billion. The Ministry of Economy and Finance stated...

China’s rare-earth strategy may be a high-risk move
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Oct 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Beijing’s export controls on rare earths may be part of a very high-risk strategy to manage China’s position in the global trade conflict. Because deficit countries are usually in a much stronger position in a trade conflict over the medium term, ...

The government should submit two bills to increase revenue, urgent status was approved for the bill prohibiting airlines from charging for carry-on luggage, and Lula is expected to announce the next STF justice after his trip
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2025

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) said the government will send two new bills to Congress restoring key points from Provisional Measure (MP) 1,303/25, which was struck down by the Lower House. According to him, one bill will address spending cuts, while the other will cover taxation of fintec...

Slide presentation and webinar replay: Chile election briefing - Going into the first round
CHILE · Presentation · 22 Oct 2025 · 1 response

What is the current state of play ahead of Chile's first round of elections? Who is favored to advance and win the presidency? What trends will shape the likely composition of Congress? View the slide presentation or watch the replay from our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Chile Anal...

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