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Markets will be following fiscal policy closely
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Jan 2023

1. S&P has expressed concern regarding the political, geopolitical and fiscal policy of the new government. 2. Business sentiment remains strong, with some softening of future expectations. 3. Rapid wage growth in the business sector reflects a tight labor market; public sector wage increas...

Markets will be following fiscal policy closely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Jan 2023

9.1.23 The Bond market: The S&P analyst in charge of Israel, Maxim Rybnikov, in an interview for Calcalist, expressed concern regarding the functioning of the new government and possible weakening of the judicial system. Political, geo-political and fiscal developments will be followed closely in...

Entering 2023, all buttons punched
TURKEY · Report · 08 Jan 2023 · 2 responses

President Erdogan kicked off the year with the mother of all pork-barreling drives to win elections. While his magnanimity is certain to stimulate the standings in the polls of him and his AKP-MHP alliance, the surge is very unlikely to last until the elections or alter the current equilibrium in...

Turkmen President on a state visit to China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2023

On January 5 he arrived in Beijing for a 2-day visit. The Turkmen government revealed little about the trip. The president met his Chinese counterpart.  President Berdymukhamedov only took over from his father in 2022. Relations with China are top priority, especially as Russia is distracted by U...

Is inflation still accelerating? Well, it depends...
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jan 2023

Looking at CPI data, the answer is a clear YES. But looking at producer prices, the answer must be much more like a clear NO. Given sharply weakening consumer demand and the close to spectacularly strengthening currency, the latter seems to be more logical. But there is still a good amount of pen...

Zelensky hails arms package
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2023

On January 7 the Ukrainian President applauded Western countries for unprecedented arms shipments. The US is going to send Bradley armored fighting vehicles that destroy tanks as well as anti-aircraft missiles, drones, rockets, howitzers and high precision weapons. On January 6 the US announced t...

Russia political/pandemic update: Russia-West conflict to deepen in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jan 2023 · 1 response

As time goes by and the conflict in Ukraine produces increasingly higher casualties, politicians of all sorts care less and less about those who have become victims of political stubbornness. Indeed, if we assume that the amount of compassion and regret politicians offer to ordinary people is a c...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai lifts alcohol tax, FAB mooted buying StanChart, Oman’s detailed budget
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped below $80 this week on global recession fears. * The GCC had 5/10 most active SWFs in 2022, boosting investments in major deals by 88% y/y. * The UAE called a UN meeting over a controversial holy site visit by ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Jan 2023

Dec 27 Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development: Kazakhstan intends to attract $874 mln from international financial organizations for the construction of treatment facilities Dec 28 Parliament: Kazakhstan introduces digital mining licensing Samruk-Kazyna: Rosatom has several advantage...

Essential CIS Politics: January 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Jan 2023

* Russia bombards Ukraine’s infrastructure but suffers its biggest single military loss in the Makiivka strike. * Fighting remains intense around Bakhmut, something of a center of the war in Ukraine. * Zelensky took a trip to the US and was told Ukraine will receive Patriots....

Putin willing to talk peace in return for land
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2023

On January 5 the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the president is open to negotiations with Ukraine if Ukraine cedes the regions that Russia has seized. The statement came as part of the record of what Putin said in a phone call with his Turkish equivalent. Turkey wants a ceasefire and this wi...

Putin orders 36-hour ceasefire
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2023

On January 5 the Russian President said the ceasefire will be from January 6-7 over Orthodox Christmas. The Patriarch of the Orthodox Church called for a ceasefire, as did the President of Turkey. President Erdogan spoke to Putin on January 5 and suggested that there should be full negotiations. ...

Inflation continues to rise
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jan 2023 · 1 response

The headline inflation rate inched up from 8% in November to 8.1% in December, below the median analysts’ forecast of 8.3%. Month-on-month (mom) inflation rose 0.3%, weaker than the 0.9% mom increase in the prior two months. The better-than-expected outturn may be traced mainly to the decline in ...

Russia sends hypersonic missiles to the Atlantic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

On January 4 it was announced on Russian TV that Russian frigates armed with Zircon missiles have been dispatched to the Atlantic. The frigate is the Admiral Gorshkov. Putin is presumably acting tough to deter the West from arming Ukraine and also to distract the Russian public from the recent se...

Record warm weather in Europe, gas reserves slightly up, gas price massively down
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

It seems that for now at least, Mother Nature is refusing to play to the hands of Vladimir Vladimirovich (Mr. Putin), whose not-so-secret objectives include making Europe truly feel the winter cold, as gas supplies are proving insufficient. In these days, most of Europe, including Hungary, is exp...