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Country Insights

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Turkey troop deployment in Libya irks Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Jan 2020
On January 2 the Turkish Parliament voted to send troops to Libya to bolster the government there. This annoys Russia which is supporting the Libyan National Army under Khalifa Haftar. Turkey and Russia have co-operated fruitfully in Syria.

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​Outlook for the Gulf in 2020 (and review of 2019)
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 03 Jan 2020
This report provides a summary of the key trends and events in the Gulf in 2019, including a review of some of our calls during the year, and outlines some of the key developments to watch for in 2020.

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December inflation: stickiness continues
TURKEY - In Brief 03 Jan 2020
Consumer prices rose by 0.7%, m/m, in December, slightly higher than the consensus of 0.5%, with the 12-month rate hence ending the year at 11.8%, up from 10.6% in November and 8.6% in October. Producer prices increased also by 0.7% in the month, m/m, with the 12-month PPI inflation thus rising t...

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What to expect in China 2020
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 03 Jan 2020
The obvious question for 2020 is – can China maintain growth without causing a bank failure, widespread defaults, or massive unrest as a result of unemployment? So far, Beijing has done a pretty good job, although my working assumption is that there is significant unemployment in more remote reg...

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OFZ: Retail flows to support the market
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 02 Jan 2020
The deceleration of inflation in Russia pushed down interest rates across the economy, including those of banking deposits. This trend has already fueled the demand of private individuals for financial markets, as they have already opened more than 3 mln accounts at the Moscow Exchange. We see hi...

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Reconciling the incompatible
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Forecast 02 Jan 2020
The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced mixed impressions, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling and are not immune from mutual contradictions. The ...

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Robust budget execution signals GDP growth is steady
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 02 Jan 2020
Rosstat recently revealed that after a weak start to the year, y-o-y GDP growth accelerated to 1.7% in 3Q19 from 0.5% and 0.9% in 1Q19 and 2Q19. The Russian Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget balance turned negative in October amid stable revenue flow as spending started to catch u...

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Strong profit tax collection hints at better growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 02 Jan 2020
Rosstat reported that w-o-w inflation remained at 0.1% for another week, consumer prices increased by a mere 0.2% from December 1 to 16, and inflation in 2019 as a whole is likely to stay around 3.1% or even lower, to fall well below 3.0% next month (say, to around 2.5%) and to stay around this ...

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The EU penalty: negative corrections appeared on the BOP and fiscal accounts
HUNGARY - In Brief 01 Jan 2020
We wish a happy new year to all of our readers!A EUR1423 million (cca. HUF460 billion) negative correction appeared on net transfers from the EU between the preliminary and the final versions of the Q3 2019 BOP, cutting the January-September net inflow number from 3.2% of GDP to just 1.8% of GDP....

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Gas transit contract signed: no transit rate increase
UKRAINE - In Brief 01 Jan 2020
On December 30 Naftogaz and Gazprom signed a 5-year gas transit contract. A 65 bcm of natural gas will go through Ukrainian pipeline in 2020 and 40 bcm per year through 2021-2024. According to President Zelenskiy Facebook page Ukraine will receive $7 billion for pumping the agreed volume of natur...

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Russia and Ukraine sign energy deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 01 Jan 2020
On December 31 Ukraine and Russia agreed a 5 year contract for gas transit via Ukraine. Gazprom is the Russian state gas company that signed the deal. This is a gain for both countries and another sign for optimism regarding the conflict. The deal was clinched at the 11th hour. Russia was keen to...

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Russia will not send oil to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 01 Jan 2020
On December 21 several oil sources confirmed that Russian oil companies will not dispatch oil to Belarus because a deal has not been agreed. Oil transit via Belarus was important for both countries. Russia has tried to negotiate reunification with Belarus. This was agreed in principle 20 years ag...

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Eurasian Economic Union: FTAs to revitalize a stagnated project?
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 31 Dec 2019
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU or EEU) is the latest and most comprehensive of decades-long attempts to use economic interdependence in the Eurasian continent, to keep former Soviet Republics under the sphere of influence of Moscow. Today, the EEU is a limited Customs Union with a Common Exter...

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Ending the year with optimism
INDONESIA - Report 30 Dec 2019
In his speech during the Annual Bankers' Dinner recently hosted by Bank Indonesia, President Jokowi appeared confident that the Indonesian economy will remain resilient in the face of the slowdown of the global economy. At the same time, he emphasized the need to look for new resources to keep th...

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Economy in 2019, in pictures
TURKEY - Report 30 Dec 2019
Executive Summary: • The recession of 2018 was short and shallow, thanks to looser global monetary policies, Trump’s leniency toward Turkey that kept political risks in check, and huge amount of domestic stimulus... • Growth should now finish the year in moderately positive territory, in cont...