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Kazakhstan macro: 2024 Budget risks arising from strong tenge, low 2023 tax revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 02 Feb 2024

According to the Ministry of Finance's recently published 2023 annual budgetary statistics, it appeared that the republican budget deficit didn’t deviate much from the target even though tax revenues lagged well behind the plan. The government lacked tax revenues due to an overvalued tenge. The l...

Lula participates in Marta Suplicy’s accession to the PT, Congress resumes activity next week, and the government may launch the Voa Brasil program
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2024

Today, President Lula participates in Marta Suplicy’s accession ceremony to the PT. Marta left the MDB and returned to the PT to run as vice mayor alongside Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) for mayor of São Paulo. Next week, the National Congress will resume activity. Some issues will be prioritized with ...

Turkey's banks shutter accounts of Russian corporations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Feb 2024

On February 1 the Russian business newspaper Vedomosti reported the news and cited sources such as business owners. Ankara has caved in to pressure from the US. Affluent Russians often have citizenship of other countries such as Israel or Cyprus, which makes it easy to get around sanctions. Middl...

Webinar replay - Philippines: Outlook, risks and challenges for Marcos 2.0
PHILIPPINES · Report · 02 Feb 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch replay of our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Philippines Analyst Diwa Guinigundo discussing the Philippines' macro and political outlook in 2024.

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan sees large improvement in CA in 3Q23, thus allaying fears related to ability to repay debt
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Questions about fast-declining FX reserves in Tajikistan over the course of 2023 led us to investigate in more detail the reasons behind this development back in Nov. We concluded then that the precipitous decrease in FX reserves was almost exclusively driven by the steep deterioration of the cur...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2024

* Russia and Ukraine are bombarding cities with increasing ferocity. * Russia's presidential election looms in March, but no change is expected. * Ukraine’s ammunition and recruitment situations are becoming critical. * The Kazakh oil workers’ strike continued for a month but is still sma...

Hungarian veto on the EU's €50bn aid package to Ukraine has been withdrawn with unexpected ease today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

Quite unexpectedly, but very positively from investors' point of view, today's extraordinary EU summit ended with a deal accepted by all member states, that means also by Hungary, in just a few hours after its start. Effectively, member states approved the original December proposal to provide Uk...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

The FX market has not been not too active in recent weeks. The government keeps discussing an extension of the mandatory sale of FX revenues for exporters (currently, this regime finishes at the end of April), while the Central bank opposes the idea. From the fundamental point of view, current re...

EU passes EUR 50 billion aid package for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

On February 1 all 27 EU member states agreed to the package. The row over this has lasted for 6 weeks. Hungary had vetoed the package until now. The President of the European Council hailed the news. There had been talk of stripping Hungary of its voting rights if Hungary did not agree. Hungary h...

No changes in the monetary policy rate in February 2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

Yesterday, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic decided to maintain in the month of February 2024 the same level of the monetary policy rate in force since last December 2023, equivalent to 7% annually. Also, the interest rate on the permanent liquidity facility and the rate on paid deposit...

A possible budget cut is driving debates behind the scenes, the STF will adjudicate the lifetime ICMS review, and Lewandowski becomes the new Minister of Justice
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2024

A possible Budget cut is driving the fiscal debate in Brasília. The deputy leader of the government in the House, Deputy Pedro Paulo (PSD-RJ), announced that he intends to present a complementary bill or an amendment to a matter that is already being analyzed in the House to formalize the governm...

“They won’t let us govern”
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jan 2024

In reaction to the Procuraduría General’s three-month suspension of Foreign Minister Alvaro Leyva, President Gustavo Petro paranoically pointed to a conspiracy against his government. But events may suggest other conclusions: a mishandled bidding process that led to a probably successful suit by ...

War abroad, elections at home
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2024

With two months left to critical municipal elections, CHP incumbents lead in the key battlefront cities of Ankara and Istanbul. Yet, CHP’s allies turned against the party, while the Erdogan-Bahceli alliance is ironclad – and Erdogan has already opened the fiscal floodgates to win. The politics au...

Growth and advantages ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jan 2024

El Salvador will hold presidential elections on February 4th, with president-on-leave Nayib Bukele a leading contender. Despite strong arguments about the unconstitutionality of his running for another term, Bukele’s candidacy is now a certainty. New members of Congress will also be elected and,...

The Central Bank will announce the new Selic today, Lewandowski will become the new Minister of Justice tomorrow, and the Minister of Labor meets with Parliamentary Fronts to discuss work on Sundays and holidays
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2024

Today, the Central Bank will announce its decision on the basic interest rate (Selic), which is currently at 11.75% per year. The rate is expected to be reduced to 11.25%. Tomorrow, February 1, President Lula will inaugurate Ricardo Lewandowski at the Ministry of Justice and Public Security. Lewa...