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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China’s charm offensive
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Mar 2024

China has been engaging in a full-court “charm offensive” toward Europe and the United States, encouraging diplomatic, military and economic discussions. Some analysts dismiss these efforts as a fig leaf to cover China’s true ambitions. However, there is an economic logic to them: the domestic ec...

The outlook for 2024 is subdued
INDIA · Report · 27 Mar 2024

The economy slowed from the middle of 2022 onward. In this report, we examine three important drivers of demand: exports, investment and credit. Export growth in 2024 is likely to be weak, investment during 2024 is likely to be subdued, and credit growth in 2024 may slow somewhat. Hence, we expec...

Economic activity grew 6.2% y-y in Feb 2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 26 Mar 2024

The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic announced that in Feb 2024 economic activity expanded by 6.2% y-y. Given the growth in Jan 2024 of 4.6% y-y, the accumulated year-on-year growth in Jan-Feb 2024 is 5.4%. The economic activities with the highest year-on-year growth in Feb 2024 were hotels...

The calm before the storm: the good news from 2023 and what lies ahead for the economy and fiscal situation in 2024
PANAMA · Report · 26 Mar 2024

In 2023, real GDP growth reached 7.3%, despite the November social crisis. Growth was driven by traditional sectors such as construction, commerce, transportation, and real estate. Monthly indicators suggested a slowdown in Q3, with a contraction in Q4. Construction activity, supported by public ...

Peru: Congress to approve a new pension fund withdrawal
PERU · In Brief · 26 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Last night, Congress' Economy Commission approved by 17 votes (only 3 against) a bill approving the seventh private pension fund withdrawal. Initially the draft conditioned the 4 Unidades Impositivas Tributarias (UITs, the inflation index units, amounting each to PEN5,150 or US$1392) withdrawals ...

Base rate cut in line with analyst expectations
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2024

The Monetary Council reduced the base rate by 75bps to 8.25% at today's meeting, just as expected by private sector analysts. This means that the 100bps rate cut of late February indeed proved to be a temporary (more accurately a one-time) deviation from the previous four months' standard monthly...

Haddad will meet with governors to discuss state debt, Pacheco should submit a bill to renegotiate state debt, and the House may vote on the Bankruptcy Law bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2024

Today, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, will meet with the governors of the South and Southeast to present a proposal to review the criteria for indexing the states' debt. Minister Haddad has already taken the matter to President Lula (PT). The governors will also meet with the president...

Politics: How voters are assessing the current administration’s performance in specific policy areas
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2024

In the second half of our analysis of the GEA-ISA nationwide quarterly poll of registered voters conducted in early March, we turn attention away from matters of presidential approval and voter support for this year’s presidential candidates and political parties and focus on citizens' perception...

Economics: More signs of decelerating manufacturing as public finances and monetary policy raise concerns
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2024

Economic data published this past month continued to bear out our projection of a slowdown in early 2024. As predicted, manufacturing contracted anew in January, largely in response to slackened demand from US industry. In Mexico, drivers of economic activity remain primarily domestic as the exte...

The Strength of Internal Demand and the Respective Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 25 Mar 2024

We have revised our growth projection for the year upward to 1.8%. Given the low carry-over from last year, this annual figure requires quarter-on-quarter marginal growth greater than the sustainable pace of output expansion, implying an additional decline of unemployment, and thus persistence of...

The goverment agenda begins to see progress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Mar 2024

This will be a shorter week due to the federal holiday on Friday. The House is trying to vote on the new Bankruptcy Law and the bill on persistent debtors. Minister Fernando Haddad discusses the states' debt with the governors. This week's Talking Points: * Tax Reform regulation. ...

Machado names substitute candidate
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Mar 2024

Maria Corina Machado waited till March 22, when the nomination period was already under way, to appoint Corina Yoris as her replacement candidate, stating that she embodies perfect opposition unity. During the press conference, Yoris had support from the parties grouped under the Unitary Platform...

The House may vote on the Bankruptcy Law bill and the persistent debtors bill this week, Haddad will meet with governors to discuss state debt, and French President Macron will visit Brazil this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Mar 2024

The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), scheduled for Tuesday, March 26, the vote on PL nº 3/2024, which provides for changes to the Bankruptcy Law. Another matter that is causing tension in the House and that may be put to a vote is Bill nº 15/2024, which creates a tax compliance progra...

Despite concern about inflation, shekel appreciation may support lowering the interest rate
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Mar 2024

1. The shekel appreciated last week on optimism regarding a possible cease-fire. 2. Supply side disruptions, strong demand for housing rentals (compared to supply) and an accommodative fiscal policy pose inflationary threats 3. Nevertheless, assuming shekel stability, we see a likely rate c...

Analysts expect a 75bps base rate cut tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2024

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council is due tomorrow. Analysts responding to Portfolio.hu's usual poll have a median expectation of a 75bps base rate cut, with seven respondents forecasting this step, two expecting a 100bps rate reduction, and another two predicting on...

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