Country Insights

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Xi promises more openness
CHINA - Report 24 Jul 2019
GDP rose 6.2% y/y in Q2, down 0.2 pps from Q1. Industrial output rose 5.6% y/y, down 0.9 pps, but notably, was up 6.3% y/y in June, obviously higher than in April and May. We judge the unusually high June growth to be a seasonal phenomenon, and unsustainable. Fixed asset investment was up 5.5%...

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​Hotel Transition at Crossroads
TURKEY - In Brief 24 Jul 2019 1 response
Our muses permitting, in a few days, the Global Source Partners Turkey team will issue its flagship Quarterly Report. By its very design the Quarterly is concise and forward-looking. The humble Politics Author felt the need to explain his view of the coming 12 monthsin detail to make sure nothing...

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Lower inflation and incipient recovery improves economic prospects
ARGENTINA - Forecast 23 Jul 2019
Monthly inflation fell from 4.7% in March to 2.7% in June. Early indicators, based on online prices, suggest that monthly inflation may end July at close to 2%. And economic activity indicators, though still in negative territory compared with 2018, show improvements with respect to Q1 2019. This...

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Today's rate-setting meeting was almost a non-event
HUNGARY - In Brief 23 Jul 2019
The Monetary Council made sure that today's monthly rate-setting meeting became genuinely uninteresting, but that was fully in line with everyone's expectation. The Council did not take any action on this occasion, and its statement became slightly more relaxed than a month ago.The statement took...

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COSTA RICA: Lower GDP growth
CENTRAL AMERICA - In Brief 23 Jul 2019
The Central Bank of Costa Rica revised its GDP growth estimates lower for 2019 and 2020, to 2.2% and 2.6% respectively, from 3.2% and 3.0% forecast at the beginning of the year. According to the Bank, a series of external and domestic events affected the growth rate of the economy. Among these ar...

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Tourist arrivals declined in June
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 23 Jul 2019
The Central Bank has just published the official figures for the number of tourist arrivals for the month of June. There is much fear that the negative information that has circulated in the international press about the Dominican Republic as a tourist destination as a result of unfortunate and u...

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High unemployment: don’t blame the Venezuelans
COLOMBIA - Report 23 Jul 2019
What started as a minor concern likely to correct itself has now become one of the greatest sources of concern, for the government and analysts alike. But the government seems to be ignoring the real problems plaguing the labor market, and therefore the solutions it will propose probably won’t be...

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President Medina gave up on re-election
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 22 Jul 2019 1 response
In a speech to the Nation, President Danilo Medina announced that he will not seek re-election. Therefore, there won't be any attempt to amend the Constitution. In our reading, although he did not recognize it, the President surrendered to the circumstances and accepted that he had no chance of a...

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The roads are closing to re-election
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 22 Jul 2019
This is a crucial week in DR politics and the prospects for re-election are looking very bleak. It seems increasingly difficult to achieve it, and Medina is left with few alternatives. These are the facts: 1. The Medina group has not managed, so far, to get the votes it needs to pass a constituti...

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The ball is in the Senate’s court and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 22 Jul 2019
The government announces economic stimulus measures. On Tuesday, it launches a program for the new market for natural gas. The next day, it announces permission for FGTS and PIS/PASEP withdrawals. The publication of a decree that allows for the returning of concessions that are financially in tro...

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Economics: Investor and consumer debt aversions
MEXICO - Report 22 Jul 2019
Over the past year Mexican consumers and investors have grown increasingly cautious when it comes to taking on new debt as they brace for the potential ramifications of risks at home and abroad. The amount of financing entering the Mexican economy appeared to have been essentially flat during the...

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Politics: What Baja’s "Ley Bonilla" may portend
MEXICO - Report 22 Jul 2019
A particularly bizarre series of recent events in the state of Baja California raises many questions about the dynamics of party politics at this early stage of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Fourth Transformation, and the tensions building within his own Morena party. Like many other st...

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What’s on the government’s agenda after the Pension Reform?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 22 Jul 2019
During the first half of the year, all the government’s legislative efforts were focused on the pension reform. The 379 favorable votes in the first floor vote in the Chamber of Deputies did not end the process, but it does mean that a gigantic step has been taken toward final approval. So, what ...

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State of the Nation Address 2019
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 22 Jul 2019
The business community should find President Rodrigo Duterte’s fourth State of the National Address (SONA) to its liking. First off, there was no mention of federalism. Second, he promised to push harder with the reform programs started under his administration, stressing especially ease of doing...

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Sharp decline in inflation will prevent tightening this year
ISRAEL - Report 22 Jul 2019
Highlights: June's CPI (-0.6% m/m, 0.8% y/y) came in way below expectations. * Both fresh produce and rental prices surprised on the downside. * Nevertheless, core inflation remained stable at 1.1% y/y. We expect inflation to reach 1.0% in 2019 and 1.1% NTM. * This foreca...