Country Insights

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Some in the MDB are trying to postpone the party’s convention, Jair Bolsonaro’s meeting with ambassadors is still causing repercussions, and Petrobras announced a drop in fuel prices
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 20 Jul 2022
The MDB party convention is scheduled for July 27 and will be held virtually. The pro-Lula wing has claimed that support for the PT’s candidacy would be a way to avoid institutional conflict given President Jair Bolsonaro’s criticism of the electronic voting machines. The goal is to postpone it t...

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Still no improvement in China’s economic performance
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 20 Jul 2022
Special points to highlight in this issue: * GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 came in well below already-low expectations. GDP was up in real terms by just 0.4 percent relative to GDP in the second quarter of 2021, and it was down 2.6 percent relative to GDP in the first quarter of 20...

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The end of the Jamaica bid (for now)
JAMAICA AND THE BAHAMAS - Report 19 Jul 2022
The recent collapse of the near 22-year-old support for the Jamaican yield curve from Jamaican buyers, or the so called "Jamaica bid", is worthy of a detailed overview on its own. The timeline really begins with the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) beginning its interest rate tightening cycle in the second ...

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New Russian pipeline to cross Mongolia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 19 Jul 2022

On July 19 the Prime Minister of Mongolia said that the natural gas pipeline will go to China. It is the Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline. Russian gas that used to be sold to the EU is being redirected to China. The pipeline is projected to be completed in 2030. It is doubtful that it will be compl...

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Kazakhstan seeks to attract businesses that have left Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 19 Jul 2022 1 response

On July 14 the President of Kazakhstan said his country wishes to welcome hundreds of Western businesses that have left Russia to set up in his country. Moscow will not like this.

Kazakhstan is in the CSTO and the Eurasian Union, which are both Russian led. The country has refused to r...

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Bolsonaro criticized electronic voting machines at a meeting with ambassadors, the Novo party filed a lawsuit against the Social Benefits Constitutional Amendment, and Senator Simone Tebet suffered yet another setback
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 19 Jul 2022
Bolsonaro brought known arguments against the machines and said Ministers Edson Fachin, Alexandre de Moraes and Luis Roberto Barroso lack neutrality. Minister Fachin, as well as candidates for the presidency criticized President Jair Bolsonaro’s statements. The STF is in recess, and a date for a ...

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Kazakhstan macro: Driving smart over a bumpy road
KAZAKHSTAN - Report 19 Jul 2022
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 1H22, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for GDP, which incorporates activity in industry, transport, agriculture, construction, trade, and communications) was up by 4.5% y-o-y. Overall, the figure doesn't look too bad amid the still stron...

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Economics: Weakening of development banks poses risks for public finance and the banking system
MEXICO - Report 19 Jul 2022
Mexico’s development banks are of particular interest in what is unquestionably a highly complicated economic and financial panorama. At the end of 2021, total development bank loan portfolios totaled 1.05 trillion pesos, in real terms, 12.5% below levels of December 2018. Between 2018 and 2021 ...

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Fiscal Fragility and Concern Over the Road Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Jul 2022
In the past 30 days, the Real has weakened from R$5.10/US$ to R$5.40/US$, once again placing it among the currencies that have depreciated the most in relation to the dollar. At the same time, the 10 year Brazilian CDS quotes – a traditional risk measure – have surpassed 400 points. Since the cou...

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Politics: AMLO´s visit to Washington has little to show
MEXICO - Report 18 Jul 2022
When President López Obrador announced plans for an official work trip to Washington after he shunned President Biden’s Summit of the Americas, it wasn’t immediately clear exactly what officials in both countries expected to accomplish. No specific agenda was ever announced, and a US official was...

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Why Lula wants to avoid a second round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Jul 2022
On Monday, Bolsonaro has a meeting with foreign ambassadors to discuss electronic voting machines. On Wednesday, July 20, the party convention period begins. The PDT, PT and PL conventions will be held on July 20, 21 and 24, respectively. Two polls on the presidential election (PoderData and Exam...

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Zelensky fires two top officials as Russia targets HIMARS
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Jul 2022

On July 18 Zelensky fired his security chief and prosecutor general. He said 650 people are suspected of treason and 60 officials in the Russian occupied zone are working for Russia. The firings are indicative of disarray in the Ukrainian government. How do they see their future in view of the...

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Putin says Russia suffers colossal tech problems due to sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Jul 2022

On July 18 Putin said that Russia would surmount the problems caused by sanctions. He said the situation was, ''hugely challenging''. This will please the West. ''We cannot develop in isolation'' added Putin.

Apple, Microsoft, Intel and other tech companies ended operations in Russia i...

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Still growing, amid inflation-fighting and great uncertainty
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 18 Jul 2022 1 response
The Dominican economy continues to grow, although at a slower monthly rate. In January-May 2022, the economy grew 5.6%, compared to the same period of 2021. But projections indicate that 2022 growth will end up at 5%, or possibly even less, at closer to 4.3%. For H2 2022, a significant growth slo...

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Bolsonaro will meet with ambassadors to discuss the electronic voting machines, Lula is trying to gain support from the agribusiness and business sectors, and party conventions begin on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Jul 2022
President Jair Bolsonaro's idea is to present data that he believes shows the fragility of the electronic voting machines in the country. The presidents of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will not participate. Afterward, Bolsonaro will hold an event for his ...