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Ukraine’s "Spiderweb" embarrasses Russia ahead of peace talks, could trigger a ballistic "Oreshnik" response
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2025

Report: Ukraine’s "Spiderweb" embarrasses Russia ahead of peace talks, could trigger a ballistic "Oreshnik" response Ukraine strikes Russian bombers, allegedly causing up to USD 7 bn in damage Russian domestic military commentators criticize security and intelligence failsPeace talks in Istanbul ...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ accelerates taper, TSMC moots UAE gigafab, Qatar and Oman fiscal outturns
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jun 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ announced another 0.4m b/d production hike for July, but Brent rose to $66 on US-China talks. * Leaks of the US proposal to Iran suggested an enrichment compromise, contradicted by Trump. * Trump’s metal tariffs wil...

A mild slowdown in the first quarter of the year
INDONESIA · Report · 06 Jun 2025

The Indonesian economy posted its Q1 2025 GDP growth result at 4.87%, lower than the 5.03% annual growth in Q4 2024. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy contracted by 0.98%, which followed the regular cycle. The fastest sectoral growth in Q1 2025 was in agriculture, forestry ...

Economic growth looks better in April, albeit marginally, prompting more action from the CBR
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2025

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (flash estimate of economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew y-o-y by 2.0% in April and 1.6% in 4M25. Earlier, we quoted Rosstat while mentioning some improvements in the industry last month...

The STF continues adjudication of important cases, Haddad will meet with party leaders over the weekend to discuss the IOF tax, and the STF will hear from defendants in the case regarding the attempted coup
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2025

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) continued yesterday the joint trial of two appeals concerning the civil liability of internet platforms for third-party content and the possibility of removing offensive material at the request of the affected party, without the need for a court order. Today, the j...

Webinar Replay - Latin America: Fiscal Pressures and Political Shifts
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Jun 2025

How are the key Latin American countries of Mexico, Argentina, Chile, and Colombia navigating their economic challenges amidst political changes? How will Mexico's growth outlook fare in the face of Trump’s trade policy uncertainties and the trend of economic slowdowns during the first year of...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—Pashinyan picks a fight he can't win
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Jun 2025

One can't deny that PM Pashinyan has shown remarkable political agility since coming to power in 2018. He faced many adversities during that period, including two lost wars, but he survived those challenges as a genuinely smooth operator. However, the latest fight he has picked—with the Armenian...

Relatively good industry and retail sales data for April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2025

At last, we see a month in which both industrial output and retail sales grew materially, in month-on-month volume terms, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. As for industry, output was up 1.5% mom. Year on year, this still meant a decrease of 2.6%, but even that was way better than the -6% yoy...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2025

The FX market remains strong despite some signs of unfavorable (for Russia) changes in geopolitical rhetoric. Apart from that, the FX market does not pay too much attention to the volatility of the oil market. The globally weakening dollar is another factor that keeps the ruble excessively strong...

A pre-Eid macro recap
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2025

We provide a quick overview of recent macro releases as we enter the Eid al-Adha holiday, which will last from this Friday through Monday. Although we’ve already talked about much of this stuff in our weeklies and briefs, a quick recap would not hurt, we thought. A most notable aspect of first...

NBU holds prime rate at 15.5% as easing delayed pending inflation peak
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Jun 2025

As expected, the NBU’s April signal about possible easing moves in June did not materialize. At today’s meeting, the NBU Board kept the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%. The decision was influenced by unseasonably cold spring weather, which led to rising food prices—particularly for fruits and veget...

The STF resumes analysis of two appeals on the Internet Civil Framework, Lula’s disapproval rating rose by one percentage point, and the PSDB will hold a convention in Brasilia to discuss its union with the Podemos party
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jun 2025

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) today resumes the trial of two Extraordinary Appeals (RE No. 1.037.396 and RE No. 1.057.258) that challenge the constitutionality of Article 19 of the Internet Civil Framework. Article 19 is a provision that exempts platforms from civil liability for hosting third-...

Lula met with government leaders to discuss the IOF increase, disapproval of Lula’s administration has reached the highest levels of his term, and Lula held a press conference yesterday to highlight government achievements
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2025

President Lula met yesterday with Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and the Presidents of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), to discuss alternative measures to the IOF tax increase. PoderData released a new poll yesterday on the public’s eval...

"No" to accountability and justice?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 04 Jun 2025

Even before the Philippines’ House of Representatives impeached Vice President Sara Duterte on February 5, 2025 by a vote of 215 out of 306 members based on a 44-page “verified complaint for impeachment,” President Ferdinand Marcos Jr had on many occasions distanced himself from the whole process...

Agricultural gains prevent total economic stagnation in Q1-2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Jun 2025

Real quarterly GDP increased marginally by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025. This followed an expansion of 0.4% q/q during the fourth quarter of 2024 and a contraction of 0.3% q/q in the third quarter of 2024. The latest GDP print showcases that the South African economy indeed started the year ...

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