GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

1. Rates remained stable last week due to elevated uncertainty, both geo-political and fiscal. 2. Private consumption has rebounded since the initial impact of the war and is currently above pre-war levels. 3. The shekel continued to appreciate in expectation of an imminent cease-fire, se...

When the music's over

CHILE · Report · 04 Mar 2024 · 1 response

The Central Bank took a significant step in January, by reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) by 100bp and adjusting its baseline scenario to a more accelerated convergence towards the neutral level. The new timeline for the TPM's convergence to its neutral level is set for the second half of 2...

Cha-Cha as an economic risk

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2024

In our previous report dated February 12, 2024, we raised the brewing issue of a possible break up in the UniTeam of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Vice-President Sara Duterte. The cracks were beginning to be more apparent first in the International Criminal Court (ICC) involving the Vice-Pres...

Monetary caution due to elevated uncertainty

ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Mar 2024

The BoI preferred to err on the side of caution: The rate hold decision last week was not a major surprise as expectations were split. We think the major factors contributing to this decision were: the postponement of fiscal approval, shekel volatility following the Moody’s downgrade, and the pos...

Bulgaria ends Russian oil imports

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2024

On March 1 Bulgaria made the announcement that it has finally brought itself fully into line with EU sanctions on Russia. The sanctions on Russian oil adopted in 2022 granted exemptions to Hungary and Bulgaria because they were heavily reliant on Russian oil. Bulgaria's exemption was due to be ph...

Netherlands signs security guarantee with Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Mar 2024

On March 1 the Dutch Prime Minister signed the agreement in Kharkiv, Ukraine. It is surprising that Mark Rutte traveled to the city, which is so close to the front line. The Netherlands pledged EUR 2 billion in military aid and more assistance until 2034. The Dutch reaffirmed that they want Ukrai...

Russian macro: Early 2024 economic trends remain generally unchanged but hint at deceleration

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

Rosstat recently published the economic statistics for January, and the numbers confirmed that trends remain unchanged in general. For instance, the aggregate output in the basic sectors of the economy (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade) grew by 5.4% y-o-y last month, whi...

Essential CIS Politics: March 2024

CIS POLITICS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

* Russia took Avdiivka: Russia’s greatest victory for almost a year. * Russian anti-corruption campaigner Alexey Navalny died suddenly in jail. * President of Azerbaijan re-elected in an election that was described by some as unfair. * Ukraine is to receive another EUR 50 billion from the ...

The IBGE published the GDP at 2.9% for 2023, city halls will hold a demonstration in Brasilia next week in support of the payroll tax exemption, and the Senate discusses changes to electoral legislation

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

Today’s highlight is the publication of the GDP result, which was reported by the IBGE at 2.9% for 2023. The result strengthens Minister Fernando Haddad in the government and increases his prestige within the National Congress. The National Confederation of Municipalities is organizing a demonstr...

Growing at a comfortable rate

INDONESIA · Report · 29 Feb 2024

The Indonesian economy posted another encouraging growth result, with Q4 2023 GDP at 5.04%, above the 4.94% annual growth for Q3 2023. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy expanded by 0.45%, following the regular cycle. With the rate of growth for Q4 slightly higher than 5%, o...

Lula signed a provisional measure that revokes the resumption of the payroll tax, the House approved the urgent status for the bill on crypto, and the STF will adjudicate the INSS lifetime review today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Feb 2024

Yesterday, Lula signed a provisional measure that revokes the resumption of the payroll tax, but it has not yet been published in the Federal Official Gazette. The measure was negotiated with the National Congress. Also yesterday, the House approved the urgent status for the bill dealing with cry...

Belarus parliamentary elections held

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2024

On February 26 all the results were announced. Turnout was 74%. Only pro-Lukashenko parties were allowed to run. These included the Communist Party and the Liberal Democrats. Several opposition parties were refused registration for the elections. Some people claim the government pressured them to...

SHARJAH: Sustainable bond goes to market, but questions remain about fiscal performance

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 27 Feb 2024

Sharjah is in the market for a 12-year sustainable bond. It held investor meetings today (Tuesday 27th February) and the bond is likely to price on Wednesday. This is its second “sustainable” issuance, which is allocated to a broad range of both green and social spending (the investor's presentat...

Prospects looking up

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Feb 2024

Understanding Costa Rica’s unexpectedly good 2023 economic performance requires evaluating the main exogenous elements that departed from our basic assumptions for the country’s short-term economic outlook. This is important, primarily to rehearse a suitable forecast scenario. Those elements rela...

MNB rate-cutting accelerated, but only temporarily

HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Feb 2024

The Monetary Council reduced the base rate by 100 ps, to 9%, today, accelerating the monthly pace of rate cuts from the previously standard 75 bps. However, shortly after the meeting, vice governor Virág said that this acceleration was only temporary, and the MNB's expectation regarding the mid-2...