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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Despite the low CPI print, a 0.5% hike in July is likely
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Jun 2022

1. May’s CPI surprised on the downside, although core inflation continued to push higher. 2. We see inflation y/y accelerating steadily this year, supportive of fairly aggressive tightening. 3. Although the CA surplus remains shekel supportive, in the short run, equity market volatility will be...

Early elections: here we go again
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Jun 2022

Israel goes to elections for the fourth time in five years, following the announcement by PM Bennett Monday evening. Lapid (who was scheduled to rotate with Bennett) will become acting PM until a new coalition is formed following elections, most likely on October 25th. The present coalition had b...

The government to amend the 2022 budget and start drafting the budget for 2023 and beyond
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2022

The Russian media reported that the government started reconsidering the budget plan for 2022 and drafting the federal budget for the years beyond. The final figures may be slightly different from what is being discussed now but generally, the medium-term budgetary outlook is reasonable, albeit q...

Oil is vital in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2022

China is purchasing more Russian oil than ever. Oil sales between January and May 2022 were up 40%. Russia is selling it at a discount. Russia recently completed a bridge across the Amur River to China. Russia's relationship with China is more vital than ever. Russia is reducing gas sales to the ...

Tight labor market and low housing inventory support inflationary pressure
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Jun 2022

Strong job growth in May supports tightening Unemployment in May increased to 3.5% from 3.1% in April due to a positive development: labor participation improved sharply to 63.2% from 62.2% (more job seekers). The more important statistic is the employment ratio (number of employed divided by tho...

Russian national airline rescued by government
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2022

On June 8, Aeroflot announced it was seeking USD 3 billion with a new share issuance. Shareholders voted for the emergency issuance. USD 1.74 billion is coming from the National Wealth Fund. The government is determined to save the airline as it is the flag carrier and has been going for almost 1...

Despite low CPI print, 0.5% hike in July likely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Jun 2022

May’s CPI came in at the low end of expectation  * Inflation increased to 4.1% y/y from 4.0% in April. Core inflation rose to 3.65% y/y from 3.4%.  * The main inflation surprise came from a lower-than-expected increase in clothing prices. Surprisingly, clothing prices are down 18% during the past...

Dull-ish politics, weird-ish economics
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jun 2022 · 1 response

With the onset of schools’ summer vacation and the approach of Muslims’ greatest holiday, Eid al Adha, domestic politics is expected to enter a short lull, from which it will awaken in August. We don’t expect any major developments on election timing or the nomination of a presidential candidate ...

Russian bans 121 Australians from entering the country
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2022

On June 18 Moscow announced the list of politicians, journalists and military officers. They have been prohibited from entering Russia until further notice. That is because they are accused of disseminating a Russophobic agenda. Russia said that sanctions by Australia had contributed to the decis...

Is Cross Death rapidly approaching?
ECUADOR · In Brief · 18 Jun 2022

Facing the threat of Leonidas Iza, Head of Conaie, to march to Quito and the increasing violence of the protests, last night, President Lasso issued a decree to install the state of exception in three provinces, Pichincha, Imbabura and Cotopaxi. At the same time, he announced economic measures th...

British PM in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2022

On June 17 Boris Johnson visited Ukraine. He seems to be Zelensky's favorite foreign leader. When Johnson survived a vote of confidence on June 6, Zelensky said he was elated. Johnson has reaffirmed the United Kingdom's fulsome support for Ukraine. The UK shall train 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers eve...

A gradual tightening
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Jun 2022

Following the US Fed’s large 75bp policy rate hike on Wednesday, BSP watchers are once more speculating whether the Monetary Board (MB), the policy-making body of the BSP, would take a more aggressive approach to raising its set of policy rates. Earlier, incoming BSP Governor Felipe Medalla, who ...

Arthur Lira harshly criticized Petrobras on Twitter, the discussion on whom Bolsonaro will choose as his VP continues, and only one poll is scheduled to be published next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2022

The president of the House, Arthur Lira, harshly criticized Petrobras on Twitter yesterday, saying that the Brazilian state-owned company has a social role in the country and has been acting as a friend to billionaires’ profits and an enemy of Brazil. Today, the strongest name to be Bolsonaro’s V...

EU Commission recommends candidate membership for Ukraine and Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2022

On June 17 the President of the Commission made the announcement. She said that Ukrainians ''are ready to die for the European dream''. Italy, France, Germany and Romania all added their approval. Zelensky welcomed the news. The EU has never never made such a rapid recommendation for candidate st...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain cabinet reshuffle, rates hiked by 25-75bp, Total invests in Qatar LNG, reactions to Biden visit
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jun 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The oil market remains tight, including due to an oil port blockade in Libya. * Iran is facing a wave of social unrest, and the US tightened sanctions as nuclear talks remain stalled. * Gulf states mainly followed the Fed...

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