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Dog days of summer
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

Alert levels are expected to go up again over the Luzon grid as the hot summer months test the grid’s thin reserves. Data[1] show that from the last week of April through the third week of June, the Luzon grid is forecast to be on yellow alert. This means that the gap between supply and demand wi...

Ocampo is leaving. Big challenges ahead for Bonilla
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

President Petro reshuffled his cabinet and sacked 7 ministers (finance, agriculture, interior, health, science, IT & telecoms, transport). The most salient decision was to sack the Finance Minister (a total surprise to everybody, including Ocampo himself), who was acting as a living corset to the...

Sub-Saharan Africa: a region poised for growth
NIGERIA · Report · 26 Apr 2023 · 1 response

With this report we introduce our Sub-Saharan Africa service. Africa is a continent emerging from the shadows in terms of the global economy, with opportunities created by the inevitable expansion of global trade and investment. With a combined GDP of $1.6 trillion in 2021, the continent has 5...

A scary net wages figure was reported for February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023 · 1 response

The net (after-tax) wages of full-time employees rose by 0.8% yoy in nominal terms in February. This implies a 19.6% yoy drop by real net wages. Yes, indeed, real wages fell by one-fifth compared to February 2022. For the first two months of this year, the corresponding figures were 7.9% yoy grow...

The unwritten Law of Governability
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

Typically, at the beginning of a Colombian government, congressmen tell the ministers who still don’t know it, about the way things are handled vis-à-vis Government in that solemn bastion of representative democracy, National Congress. Namely, an iron law that has survived decades, and yet it isn...

Ecopetrol’s CEO first day in office
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

Public policy announcements made by government officials are one thing, and corporate strategy announcements, made by a business group CEO are an entirely different matter. If someone in government thinks, rightly or wrongly, that Colombia must eventually abandon oil and gas, that's up to them. T...

Presidential cabinet crisis
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

In the evening of April 25 president Petro twitted: “1. Our invitation to a social pact for change has been rejected. Those who have made fortunes with public moneys don’t realize that society at large asks for their rights to be respected; and that that implies dialogue and agreements. “2. The p...

The request for the installation of a CMPI on the January 8 attacks should be read today, the report on MP 1147/22 was approved in the House yesterday, and the House approved the urgent status request for the Fake News bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2023

Today, the president of Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) will read the request for the creation of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) to investigate the January 8 attacks. Deputy Andre Fufuca (PP-MA) is being considered for the presidency of the CPMI. Yesterday, the government had an imp...

Moscow feeling threatened by Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

On April 25 it was announced that Red Square will be closed to the public for 2 weeks before the May 9 Victory Day Parade for security reasons. It is usually shut for 4 days before the parade. The May 9 parade commemorates World War II. Usually ordinary citizens are allowed to parade through the ...

O/N repo rate down to 20.5% at today's rate-setting meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Apr 2023

The Monetary Council reduced the O/N repo rate, the ceiling of the MNB's interest rate corridor, from 25% to 20.5% today, maintaining some scope for a potential upward adjustment of the 18% sterilisation rate, in case of a necessity to do so. This fell quite close to analyst expectation, which wa...

Roberto Campos Neto will participate in a hearing in the Senate today, Deputy Orlando Silva may present his report on the Fake News PL, and the request for the installation of a CMPI on the January 8 attacks should be read on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Apr 2023

The president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, will participate in a public hearing at the Senate Economic Affairs Committee today starting this morning. The main topic of discussion will be the interest rate (Selic), currently at 13.75% per year. Deputy Orlando Silva may present his rep...

Economics: Latest industrial data points to weakening of manufacturing with mining picking up the slack and construction enjoying a slight recovery
MEXICO · Report · 25 Apr 2023

Industrial activity figures for February contain decidedly mixed results. Manufacturing, which had previously served as a major driver of the recovery, extended the gradual deceleration trend it has been locked into since a major rebound in activity in the third quarter of last year. But despite ...

Politics: In the final leg of AMLO’s government, presidential confrontational style stokes mounting political and social risks
MEXICO · Report · 24 Apr 2023

With presidential elections a little more than 14 months away, President López Obrador is stepping up efforts to try and make good on the promises he made throughout his governing project despite a record in which his policy approaches and style of governing have produced results counter to his s...

A pre-election Q&A
TURKEY · Report · 24 Apr 2023 · 1 response

We tried to address some key questions in our as well as our readers’ minds, in a Q&A format. With less than three weeks left to the critical ballot date, polls are largely static. As it stands, Kemal Kilicdaroglu will likely become the next president of Turkey, as his Nation Alliance will hav...

The Fiscal Framework Proposal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Apr 2023

The fiscal framework bill sent to Congress confirms what we already knew: the only guarantee is higher spending in real terms, growing within an interval of 0.6% to 2.5% a year. The text does not contain any punishments for failing to meet the primary surplus targets, which are mere indications. ...

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