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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The request for the installation of a CMPI on the January 8 attacks should be read today, the report on MP 1147/22 was approved in the House yesterday, and the House approved the urgent status request for the Fake News bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2023

Today, the president of Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) will read the request for the creation of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) to investigate the January 8 attacks. Deputy Andre Fufuca (PP-MA) is being considered for the presidency of the CPMI. Yesterday, the government had an imp...

Moscow feeling threatened by Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

On April 25 it was announced that Red Square will be closed to the public for 2 weeks before the May 9 Victory Day Parade for security reasons. It is usually shut for 4 days before the parade. The May 9 parade commemorates World War II. Usually ordinary citizens are allowed to parade through the ...

O/N repo rate down to 20.5% at today's rate-setting meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Apr 2023

The Monetary Council reduced the O/N repo rate, the ceiling of the MNB's interest rate corridor, from 25% to 20.5% today, maintaining some scope for a potential upward adjustment of the 18% sterilisation rate, in case of a necessity to do so. This fell quite close to analyst expectation, which wa...

Roberto Campos Neto will participate in a hearing in the Senate today, Deputy Orlando Silva may present his report on the Fake News PL, and the request for the installation of a CMPI on the January 8 attacks should be read on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Apr 2023

The president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, will participate in a public hearing at the Senate Economic Affairs Committee today starting this morning. The main topic of discussion will be the interest rate (Selic), currently at 13.75% per year. Deputy Orlando Silva may present his rep...

Economics: Latest industrial data points to weakening of manufacturing with mining picking up the slack and construction enjoying a slight recovery
MEXICO · Report · 25 Apr 2023

Industrial activity figures for February contain decidedly mixed results. Manufacturing, which had previously served as a major driver of the recovery, extended the gradual deceleration trend it has been locked into since a major rebound in activity in the third quarter of last year. But despite ...

Politics: In the final leg of AMLO’s government, presidential confrontational style stokes mounting political and social risks
MEXICO · Report · 24 Apr 2023

With presidential elections a little more than 14 months away, President López Obrador is stepping up efforts to try and make good on the promises he made throughout his governing project despite a record in which his policy approaches and style of governing have produced results counter to his s...

A pre-election Q&A
TURKEY · Report · 24 Apr 2023 · 1 response

We tried to address some key questions in our as well as our readers’ minds, in a Q&A format. With less than three weeks left to the critical ballot date, polls are largely static. As it stands, Kemal Kilicdaroglu will likely become the next president of Turkey, as his Nation Alliance will hav...

The Fiscal Framework Proposal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Apr 2023

The fiscal framework bill sent to Congress confirms what we already knew: the only guarantee is higher spending in real terms, growing within an interval of 0.6% to 2.5% a year. The text does not contain any punishments for failing to meet the primary surplus targets, which are mere indications. ...

Analysts expect the MNB repo rate to be cut to 20% tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Apr 2023

Tomorrow's monthly rate-setting meeting will be formally a regular one, as to its place in the Monetary Council's preset meeting calendar, but it will be an extraordinary one in terms of importance. The latter is because it has been promised to give away some information regarding the much-awaite...

The government will be put to the test and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2023

The request for the creation of a Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) into the January 8 attacks will be read on Wednesday. An intense negotiation is underway for the selection of its rapporteur and chair. The fiscal framework begins analysis in the House. In the Senate, the president ...

The rapporteur of the fiscal framework bill is expected to announce a work schedule, the STF will resume the adjudication of the FGTS case, and the STJ will adjudicate the ICMS case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2023

The complementary bill that deals with the fiscal framework (PLP nº 93/23) was submitted to the House last week. The rapporteur, Deputy Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA), is expected to announce a work schedule. On Wednesday, April 26, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will resume its judgment on the increase...

President Alberto Fernandez declines to run again amidst devaluation pressures
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Apr 2023

Last week, the adverse inflation result, added to the BCRA's worrying reserve and debt levels and concerns about the likely dollarization process before a presidential election triggered a flight to quality away from the peso, resulting in a significant depreciation of the informal and the Blue-C...

Kazakhstan macro: The transformation of foreign trade flows will gradually reshape the economy
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Apr 2023

The Kazakh economy continued to expand in 1Q23 as the short-term indicator grew 1Q23 by 5.1% y-o-y. Most domestically oriented manufacturing segments expanded rapidly in 1Q23, while export-oriented ones struggled to grow fast. Domestic demand continued to recover steadily as retail sales and inve...

The early evidence on benefits from China+1
INDIA · Report · 24 Apr 2023

Have the possibilities for India improved greatly, when many global firms view India as the “+1” in a China+1 sourcing strategy? We pull together the early evidence on 1) the share of India vs. China in US imports; 2) FDI into India; and 3) exports from India. There is low evidence in favor of a ...

Insecurity and violence overshadows Lasso’s impeachment in the news
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Apr 2023

The unceasing news of acts of violence and even massacres, both inside jails and outside them, have displaced news of Lasso’s impeachment, which should be the most important development for Ecuadorians at this time. However, there is evidence that Ecuadorians, who have been undergoing threats fro...

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