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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The legitimacy of electronic voting remains on the agenda, former President Lula explicity stated that he is a presidential candidate for the first time, and the House will analyze the national nursing salary floor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2022

Arthur Lira (PP-AL) said on social media yesterday that the Brazilian electoral system is “renowned” and that “thinking differently casts doubt on the legitimacy of all elected officials”. Rodrigo Pacheco said that he has no "place" to question the legitimacy of the electoral process in the count...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2022

* The Ukraine conflict continues, although Russia has changed its focus from Kyiv to Donbas. On April 22, a Russian general was quoted stating Russia's war aim in this conflict. General Minnikaev clarified what has long been suspected: that one of the main goals is to establish a land corridor t...

A turning point of the war: Ramstein meeting and Lend-lease act
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

The second week of the "big battle" over Donbas is coming to its end. From all sides we have reports that fighting is very tough across the board. The Russians keep throwing all their forces in frontal attacks on Ukrainian positions. In some sections of the front they are making progress (see map...

UN Secretary General in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

On April Antonio Guterres was in the Ukrainian capital. He denounced the war. While he was there Russia launched missiles at the city. They killed 3 civilians.President Biden asked Congress for a USD 33 billion aid package for Ukraine. USD 20 billion of this is a military aid. It is likely that t...

Chinese payment system not working in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

UnionPay is not cooperating with Russia's main bank: Sberbank. UnionPay has stopped talks with other banks because it is worried about sanctions. The Russian news website RBC reported this on April 21.Russian banks wished to issue UnionPay cards because Visa and Mastercard do not work in Russia s...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

April 14Bureau of National Statistics: Kazakhstan's industrial output moved up by 5.8% in annual terms in the first three months of 2022Ministry of Finance: Kazakhstan's economy may lose about KZT300 bln ($666.4 mln) in 2022 from anti-Russian sanctions as well as the situation in Ukraine in gener...

El Salvador: Growth and international friendship flag
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Apr 2022

El Salvador’s robust 2021 post-pandemic economic growth is expected to fade in 2022, returning to a potential growth rate a little lower than before COVID-19. As the optimistic view of the world economy moderates due to new and old negative events, our previous estimates move in the same directio...

The sterilisation rate went up by 30 bps today, meeting expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2022

At today's tender, the MNB raised its fixed interest rate for 1-week deposits by 30 bps, to 6.45%. This was exactly the same as private sector analysts' median expectation, following the 100 bps increase in the base rate, to 5.4%, at Tuesday's Council meeting.These latest decisions were also an e...

The House approved the Auxílio Brasil provisional measure, the Senate will analyze presidential vetoes today, and there was yet another setback for Operation Car Wash
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2022

The House approved the Auxílio Brasil payments of R$ 400. The rapporteur, João Roma, former Minister of Citizenship, accepted an edit to make this value permanent. Today, the National Congress will analyze presidential vetoes. To overturn a veto, an absolute majority of votes is required — at lea...

A promising start to South Africa’s economy in 2022 following a robust recovery in 2021, but risks have intensified
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 28 Apr 2022

• South African growth: South Africa’s economy underwent a robust recovery of 4.9% in real GDP during 2021 from 2020’s deep contraction of 6.4%. On top of growth coming from a low base as well as the recovering global economy acting as a tailwind, South Africa’s growth was also propelled by the s...

Inflation Report: ​Inflation forecast is up, but still sanguine
TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2022 · 1 response

The second Inflation Report of the year has been released today, where the Bank, as expected, raised its yearend inflation forecast for 2022 markedly higher to 42.8% (midpoint of a range between 38.7% and 46.6%) from 23.1% in the January report. The 2023 forecast was also raised by 4.7 pps to 12....

Stagflation risk
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Apr 2022

Even as the IMF warned of stagflation risk for Asia, economic managers are happily taking note of the multilateral agency’s rosier outlook for the Philippines. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF nudged up its GDP forecast for country this year from 6.3% to 6.5%.Although the adjustment ...

Reasons to be pessimistic
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Apr 2022

Colombia’s Fuel Price Stabilization Fund deficit is projected to reach nearly 3% of GDP in 2021-2022, with a peak annualized deficit of COP 26.1 trillion this year. The Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule published an analysis that is both timely and courageous: it warns that structural solut...

Peru: Referendum on a Constitutional Assembly
PERU · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022

On Monday and with the approval of the Cabinet, President Pedro Castillo and Prime Minister, Mr. Anibal Torres, submitted to Congress a draft proposal calling for a referendum on a Constitutional Assembly due on October 2nd, and at the time of mid-term State and Municipalities elections. The draf...

Fidesz won easily and faces all the economic and foreign policy mess currently developing
HUNGARY · Forecast · 27 Apr 2022

The governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance won the parliamentary election by a surprisingly large margin early this month. Their victory was no surprise at all, but the continuation and even a slight increase of their constitutional majority was entirely unexpected. Fidesz’s win has removed a great deal ...

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