GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

1. The October Business Sentiment Survey reflects an expected sharp decline in economic activity. 2. The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 4% GDP in 2023 and 6% GDP in 2024 as a result of the conflict. 3. We expect a CPI print of 0.5% m/m in October, impacted by seasonality and higher fre...

Russia evacuates its citizens from Gaza

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2023

On November 13 an announcement was made that Russian officials from the Emergency Situations Ministry and diplomats are bringing Russian citizens out of Gaza. There are over 600 Russians in Gaza. So far Israel has only allowed 80 Russians out of Gaza. 60 Russians have gone from Gaza to Egypt. Rus...

Western sources say Ukraine blew up Nord Stream Pipeline.

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2023

On November 11 The Washington Post and a German magazine cited Western and Ukrainian intelligence sources as saying that Ukraine was behind the explosion in 2022. Ukraine has accused Russia of blowing up the gas pipeline. Russia said that Ukraine did it. The pipeline in the Baltic Sea carried gas...

Business sentiment falls sharply as hostilities persist

ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Gaza, although at a decreasing pace. The Israeli army is consolidating its control on northern Gaza and is proceeded slowly to deal with the massive tunnel network especially in Gaza city (inc...

Latvia's former interior ministry convicted of spying for Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2023

On November 10 the court found that Janis Adamsons has worked for the Russian Federal Security Service and gathered intelligence for decades. He was awarded 8 years in jail. A Russian citizen was his accomplice, and a former KGB officer was given 7 years. Adamsons was interior minister in the mi...

Russian missile hits merchant ship in Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023

On November 10 Ukraine claimed that a Russian missile struck the Liberian flagged-cargo ship in Odesa and 1 sailor was killed. Russia has neither confirmed nor denied this. The ship was hit with an anti-radar missile, so the strike might be accidental. Kyiv claimed the ship was due to take iron o...

Justice Barroso modified his vote in the FGTS correction case, the Tax Reform proposal still has not been submitted to the House, and there will be a federal holiday on Wednesday next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2023

Yesterday, November 9, during the trial of the case on the FGTS correction index in the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Luís Barroso, rapporteur of the case, modified his vote postponing the change in the TR correction for savings to 2025. This was a government request. Also yesterday, the r...

Webinar replay: Venezuela - What's Next?

VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023

With the US easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, what is ahead for the country and where are the opportunities? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses what's next for Venezuela.

Spending plan 2024 approved with 20.6% GDP deficit

UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023

On November 9th, the Verkhovna Rada approved the 2024 spending plan, which saw only modest changes from the initial budget proposed in September. The central budget's revenues are set at UAH 1.77 trillion, with expenditures at UAH 3.36 trillion, leading to a deficit of UAH 1.57 trillion, or 20.6%...

Slide Presentation: Venezuela - What's Next

VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023

With the US's easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, get insight into what's ahead for the country with the slide presentation from our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy, "Venezuela: What's Next".

Surprise, surprise: CPI-inflation down to a single-digit level already in October

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023

The October figures for the headline inflation rate were -0.1% mom, 9.9% yoy, the latter falling from 12.2% yoy in September. This surprised analysts, who had a median expectation of 10.3% yoy, our own forecast figure being 10.2% yoy. Crucially, food prices fell by 0.1% mom, a very much non-seaso...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

The FX market remained relatively calm at the beginning of November. The widened current account surplus, accompanied by some measures of capital controls, caused the ruble to appreciate. It strengthened to R/$92 as of November 8. The new sanctions package, announced in early November, may negati...

The Tax Reform proposal was approved in the Senate, Haddad met with party leaders to discuss the ICMS subsidy, and the STF resumes analysis of the ADI on the FGTS correction

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Nov 2023

The government had an important victory in the Senate by guaranteeing the approval of the Tax Reform proposal in two rounds. The score was tight, with just 4 votes more than the minimum required, at 53 votes in favor and 24 against. Yesterday, November 8, Haddad met with Lira and party leaders fr...

Both business expectations and consumer confidence decline sharply

ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

October’s Business Sentiment Survey points to a sharp deterioration in expectations for growth next month (November), with this component declining to -23 points from +0.4 in September. The employment expectation component also turned net negative to -14.65 from 1.16. The construction sector is e...

Federal budget surplus narrows as revenues climb

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget surplus narrowed to R1.235 trln in 10M23. The original officially approved 2023 budget targeted a deficit of R2.925 trln. The deficit was widest in 4M23 (R3.049 trln) as the government spent money ahead of schedule in the early year to fina...