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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A grim political outlook
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 May 2022

Because the Maduro government has not showed progress in displaying at-home capacity to investigate alleged crimes against human rights in Venezuela, the International Criminal Court is about to launch its own such investigation. So, things look dark for justice in Venezuela. And now recent desig...

The House may vote on the national nursing salary floor, the União Brasil party should decide whether it will remain in the third-way alliance, and former President Lula expected to officially launch his presidential candidacy on Saturday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2022

As an agreement has not been reached on the source of funding for the national nursing salary floor bill, the vote will most likely be postponed. If the matter is put to a vote, it will likely be approved — even without a source of funding. Currently, the trend is for the União Brasil party to le...

Is it game over? (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 May 2022

But for the casting of votes on Monday, May 9, the presidential and vice-presidential elections appear to be over. PulseAsia today released its survey of voter preferences conducted from April 16-21. The results were largely unchanged compared with last month. In the race for the presidency, Mr. ...

Bond issuance will likely continue to decline
ISRAEL · Report · 02 May 2022 · 1 response

1. Government bond issuance declined in May, a trend that is likely to continue in the remainder of the year. 2. Economic indicators have been generally positive, including a tightening labor market, supportive of steady monetary tightening. 3. We expect high inflation in April (0.9% ...

Bond issuance will likely continue to decline
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 May 2022

Positive fiscal numbers have supported lower bond issuance In May, the MoF will issue 3.5bn ILS in tradeable bonds, reduced from 4.5bn in January. This bond reduction is due to surprisingly robust fiscal numbers in Q122, with initial numbers for April pointing to a similar trend. The fiscal defic...

Putin aides indicate escalation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 May 2022

On April 28 Putin said there would be a lightning fast strike against any country that intervened to fight for Ukraine.One of the most powerful men in Russia, Nikolai Patrushev is secretary of the Security Council. He is from St Petersburg, like Putin, and is almost the same age. One April 29 he ...

Kazakhstan stripping Nazarbayev of his title
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2022

The Kazakh Parliament is debating stripping the former president of his title ''Leader of the Nation'', which he was supposed to hold for life. Nazarbayev has been effectively sidelined since the deadly riots in January 2022. As Leader of the Nation he and his family could not be prosecuted. Any ...

Georgian mineral water suspends activity
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2022

On April 29 Borjomi said it would not be producing water for the foreseeable future. It is one of the most popular brands in the former USSR. Borjomi said its problems are due to the Ukraine War. Russia has less money to spend on products and there are difficulties with paying due to sanctions.Bo...

​Another spike in trade
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Apr 2022

The Indonesian economy has been blessed by the spike in commodity prices. The spike in commodity prices has boosted the export value of various commodities, especially coal, CPO and iron and steel. Export performance in Indonesia broke a new record, achieving $26.5 billion in March 2022. At the s...

GULF WEEKLY: Erdogan visits Saudi, Sharjah on Negative outlook, Oman plans privatizations
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Apr 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Moody’s restored stable outlooks to Gulf banking sectors due to improved operating conditions. * Saudi Arabia ordered 50k+ Lucid EVs, and colorful details emerge of its 2018 talks with Tesla. * Erdogan visited Saudi Arabia...

Armenia and Azerbaijan agree on border commission
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

On April 25 the foreign ministers of the two countries agreed on the structure of the commission that will draw their border. Russia has a special envoy shuttling between Yerevan and Baku to mediate the agreement.Azerbaijan wants mutual territorial recognition. Armenia's Prime Minister hinted he ...

A pre-holiday recap
TURKEY · Report · 29 Apr 2022

The Turkish markets will be closed through Wednesday next week, because of the Eid al-Fitr or Ramadan Holiday. In this note, we provide a quick update on the latest state of affairs in politics, and review some of the recent data releases on the econ side. The conviction of Osman Kavala to lif...

Russian macro: initial signs of economic transformation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2022

March was the first full month that the Russian economy began its transformation toward an unknown future, which is likely to be more ascetic, less reliant on imports and less open to the rest of the world – at least in the initial stage. It looks as though the impact of the military activity in ...

Lockdown halts powerful economic recovery
CHINA · Report · 29 Apr 2022

The COVID-19 lockdowns in Shanghai and some other cities since late March have halted the strong economic recovery. In Q1, GDP was up 4.8% y/y, up 0.8 pps from Q4 2021, but 0.2 pps lower than in Q1 2020. Industrial output rose 6.5% in Q1, up 2.6 ppts from Q4, but down 1 pps from January-February....

Webinar Replay - Latin America: Global shocks and local politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Apr 2022

Understand how global shocks and local political landscapes are shaping the outlook for Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Peru. Visit the calendar page to watch the replay of the webinar featuring our analysts discussing how the region will balance the inflation and growth shocks created by war.

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