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Finland joins NATO and Russia threatens a response
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Apr 2023

On April 4 Moscow said that Finland's accession will cause a buildup of Russian forces on the Finnish border. Putin's spokesman said that there would be countermeasures because what has happened is escalatory. Russia warned NATO not to place attack weapons in Finland. Finland has a 1,300 km borde...

Haddad spoke about the government’s remedial measures yesterday, the STJ will adjudicate a matter on ICMS tax incentives this month, and the TSE reviews a case against Bolsonaro’s ticket in the last election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2023

Haddad said that the country has R$ 400 billion in incentives and tax benefits. He said he only needs an increase in revenue between R$ 110.0 billion and R$ 150 billion for the fiscal framework. According to Haddad's calculations, taxation on gambling should generate R$ 12 billion in revenue. The...

Politics: AMLO, 4T and the economy score high in poll, despite discontent over security
MEXICO · Report · 04 Apr 2023

President López Obrador’s approval rating jumped to its highest since late 2020, perceptions of whether the country is on the right track were at their strongest since 2019, and support for prolonging AMLO’s governing project into the next presidential administration approached 50%, as did suppor...

Economics: Another month of mixed economic indicators alongside easing inflation
MEXICO · Report · 04 Apr 2023

Economic activity data for January and February delivered mixed results in the case of manufacturing and construction as have consumer and business confidence indicators, readings that reflect the extent of continuing momentum in some areas of the economy. At the same time, the country is faced w...

The politics of debt after the NPC
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2023

China is struggling with high debt. The weakest portion is concentrated in the local investment companies, Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs), with an estimated 50 to 60 trillion yuan. They emerged from the 2009 financial crisis and have since become the principal support for the propert...

Massa prepares new measures amidst conditions set by the IMF Executive Board during the fourth review approval
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 03 Apr 2023

During the weekend the IMF Executive Board approved the fourth revision of the EFF, allowing an immediate disbursement of SDR 4bn (approximately USD 5.4bn). According to the IMF press release, “All quantitative performance criteria through end-December 2022 were met with some margin, supported by...

The OPEC+ April surprise
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2023 · 1 response

* Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Oman are cutting production by -4.8% from May. * Four other OPEC+ members made similar commitments, and Russia extended its existing voluntary cut. * Overall, the actual cuts committed to are more than those announced in October. * Prices have rallied by about 6...

Russian general fired by Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2023

On April 3 several media source said that Rustam Muradov was dismissed because of failed attacks in Ukraine in Vuhledar in early 2023. The attacks resulted in considerable losses for Russia. In one battle at least 36 tanks and 67 other pieces of equipment such as artillery were destroyed because ...

The fiscal anchor in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2023

The government may submit a bill to Congress that deals with the new fiscal framework. The government also promises fiscal measures that could reach R$ 150 billion. The Easter holiday will reduce activities in Congress. Minister Simone Tebet participates in a public hearing on Tax Reform in the H...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Apr 2023

Below we examine the political contradictions of the government and some details and implications of the new fiscal framework. A feeling of perplexity has crystallized about the behavior of President Lula and the paralysis of his government during its first three months, the “honeymoon” period...

Russian macro: moderate growth in 2023 driven by domestic demand
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 03 Apr 2023

Assuming no new major external shocks in 2023, the economy may grow by over 1% this year. The current account will shrink while still remaining in surplus, and the budget balance will remain in deficit. Inflation may decelerate to below 5% this year, which will enable the Central Bank to cut the...

Base effects continue, so does stickiness
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2023

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 2.3% in March (vs. 2.7-2.8% consensus), with the 12-month rate thus easing further to 50.5%, from 55.2% in February, and a peak of 85.5% in October last year. Domestic producer prices rose very modestly by 0.4%, m/m, in the month, which led to a furth...

The Governor sends a stern warning
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Apr 2023

Rates up with a stern warning Today’s rate hike of 0.25% to 4.5% was widely expected due to broad and sticky inflation, growth in line with the long-term trend, and a tight labor market. The Bank of Israel Research Dept. macro forecast attracted much more attention. For the first time since Covid...

Pdvsa struck by earthquake
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Apr 2023

After months of rumors as to the collapse of the government's stabilization program caused by an apparently unforeseen drought in oil revenues, an earthquake has struck Pdvsa. Aftershocks continue to be felt. It all started last January when Colonel Pedro Tellechea was named president of Pdvs...

The government may submit the new fiscal framework to Congress this week, the conflict in Congress regarding the analysis of provisional measures continues, and Bolsonaro to testify to the Federal Police about the jewelry he brought into the country
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2023

The government may submit a supplementary bill dealing with the new fiscal framework to Congress. As a supplementary bill, it will need 257 votes in the House and 41 in the Senate to be approved. The conflict between the House and the Senate regarding the analysis of provisional measures (MPs) co...

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