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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian macro: in search of a new normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Apr 2023

After a yearly break, the Central Bank of Russia published monthly foreign trade statistics, albeit not as detailed as previously. After February 2022, the CBR stopped publishing monthly data on exports and imports, though recently it provided the aggregate foreign trade data without any breakdow...

Alleged leak of US documents on the Ukraine War
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2023

On April 9 scores of what are supposedly classified US document about the war were published on the internet without authorization. These included charts, maps and photos. Some of these were top secret. The documents details the weaknesses of both sides. Some documents date back to early March 20...

Russia will digitize its military draft system
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2023

On April 11 Russia's parliament voted to streamline the system of calling men up for the military. This bill adds to the rumors that Russia is planning a new wave of conscription. Russian males usually do a year of military training at the age of 18. Wartime conscription is mostly about calling b...

The submission of the new fiscal framework was postponed to April 17, deputies are upset that the government issued a decree on the sanitation framework bypassing Congressional input, and Campos Neto should go the CAE on April 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2023

Once again, the submission of the new fiscal framework was postponed. According to the president of the Joint Budget Committee (CMO), Senator Daniella Ribeiro (PSD-PB), the bill is now expected to be submitted next Monday, April 17, after the return of Finance Minister Haddad from his trip to Chi...

CPI-inflation for March out: further 'patience' from the MNB will be required
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Apr 2023

Well, the CPI-inflation data for March, reported this morning, was just awful. For sure, the headline rate fell a little further, to 25.2% yoy, from 25.4% yoy in February, making March the second consecutive month with a decrease, from the peak 25.7% yoy in January. It is also true that in its la...

Parliamentary Elections: Advantage, Nation Alliance
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2023

Do you believe in fate? Personally, I’m on the fence about her, because I feel my life has been more of a “random walk” then guided by a divine power. Yet, if such a force were to exist, I’d say it is carrying Kemal Kilicdaroglu (KK) and the Nation Alliance (NA) to power. With no major changes in...

Maduro’s tolling agreement proposal: a non-event
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2023

On March 30, 2022, the Maduro government announced it suspended the statute of limitations on bonds issued by the sovereign and Pdvsa for five years or until the US government lifts economic sanctions that prevent a debt restructuring, whatever happens first. This initiative stems from the “perpl...

Lula and Haddad travel to China today, the fiscal framework should be submitted to Congress along with the LDO this week, and Justice Ricardo Lewandowski retires today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2023

Haddad had a meeting with Chief of Staff Rui Costa yesterday to review the micro details of the LDO and the new fiscal framework. Yesterday, Lula praised the proposed fiscal framework and said he was certain the text would be approved by Congress. Fernando Haddad is traveling to China with Lula. ...

Polls show the country remains polarized and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2023

Today, April 10, the government reviews President Lula's first 100 days in office and announces new measures in a ceremony at the Planalto Palace. The new fiscal framework will be submitted to Congress, as well as measures aimed at increasing revenue and the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). Lula trav...

A Framework That Falls Short of Resolving the Fiscal Problem
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Apr 2023

Given the need to reduce the public debt, the only fiscal framework that makes sense is one that assures reaching of sufficiently high primary surpluses to achieve that goal. Unfortunately, the government’s proposal fails in this task. The arithmetic of the new framework seems impeccable. After a...

Today is Lula’s 100th day as president, the government should submit the new fiscal framework to Congress this week, and Lula travels to China tomorrow morning
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2023

Today, April 10, the government reviews Lula's first 100 days as president and announces new measures in a ceremony at the Planalto Palace. This week, the government will submit to Congress the complementary bill that deals with the new fiscal framework. The matter will be accompanied by a set of...

The federal budget surplus narrows in 3M23 as revenues exceed expenditures in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Apr 2023

The Finance Ministry reported that in 3M23, the federal budget deficit narrowed compared to 2M22 and accounted for R2.4trln (versus R2.6trln a month ago). It means the budget was in surplus of about R200bn in March alone. Tax collection improved last month as the government collected R688bn of th...

Policy mistakes and a severe draught worsen economic projections
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Apr 2023

The trends of the main indicators of the economy for 2023 and the projections under a best-case scenario in 2024 and 2025 continue to be those described in our January 10, 2023 forecast. However, as we expected, the government has made no progress in reducing fiscal imbalances or relative price d...

China’s softer tech regulation
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Apr 2023

Noises have been coming out of Beijing suggesting a softer tone toward the technology industry three years after the crackdown that caused share prices to plummet and companies to lose revenue. I would argue that things have changed around the margins but the underlying dynamics of Party power re...

A fateful day in politics
TURKEY · Report · 09 Apr 2023

This week’s political essays are rather brief, because the main event of the week, the negotiations over merging candidate lists were yet to be completed, as we finalized these lines (as of 5 pm, Istanbul time). While all three political alliances have submitted their preliminary lists, these can...

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