GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Please note that Table 1 in our quarterly/forecast report that was sent yesterday with the above title has been corrected to include the right policy and benchmark rate forecasts for 2024, which are now consistent with the text. The original dispatch, as we've just noticed, had an earlier version...

The current account surplus narrows in narrows in November amid lower oil price

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

The Russian Central Bank reported that, according to its flash estimates, the current account surplus narrowed in November to $4.3 bn. In October it was $4.9bn and in 3Q23 - $17.0 bn. The trade surplus also narrowed in November and reached $8.4 bn (in October, it was $9.4 bn). The regulator just ...

Webinar replay - Argentina: What to expect from the Milei administration

ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Dec 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Argentina's new administration so you can gauge how the change in leadership will impact the country’s macro outlook and political agenda.

Lula’s veto of the payroll tax relief was overturned, the ICMS MP should be approved by the end of next week, and next week is the final week of activity before Congress recesses

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2023

President Lula's veto of the bill dealing with payroll tax relief was overturned. The votes, both in the House and the Senate, were significant. After intense negotiations, the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), postponed the analysis of ICMS subsidies provisional measure (MP 1185/23) a...

Putin's live press conference

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

On December 14 he held his annual press conference cum phone-in. In theory, members of the public call in and they are randomly selected to speak to the president live on air. The 2023 edition was not as masterful as those of several years ago. Putin said that the war would go on until Russia ac...

GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s upgraded Oman again, oil touched a six-month low, Saudi budgets rising debt, Putin visited Gulf

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Dec 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil touched $74, the lowest in nearly six months, as demand worries eclipsed OPEC+ cuts. * The UAE tabled a new Gaza ceasefire resolution at the UN, after a rare request from UNSC Guterres. * Gulf states displayed u...

CCA Highlights: Armenia growth still brisk in 3Q, Azerbaijan closes USAID, Georgian Dream boosted by intensifying split in opposition, S&P confirms Uzbekistan at BB-

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Dec 2023

We comment on key macro-related events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Economy grows by a robust 7.4 percent YoY in 3Q23 Armenia: Short-term economic indicator increases by 6.0 percent YoY in Oct Armenia: Hayakve (Armenian vote) initiative to be discussed in Parliament in two mo...

Economics: Data shows strong economic growth even as rising public deficit and debt pose future problems

MEXICO · Report · 04 Dec 2023

As we look back at the indicators released over the course of November, the headline note came from the GDP report for the third quarter. The definitive data showed continuing momentum through an eighth consecutive quarter and prompted many to adopt a brighter outlook. The GDP numbers for the thi...

Turkey’s “Don’t mess with Uncle Sam” moment

TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Dec 2023

Despite being a NATO member and allegedly a candidate for EU membership, Turkey is the subject of an extraordinary number of sanctions threats from US and EU. A new one came from US Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson who visited Turkey the second time in 2023, issuing stern warnings to Turkish ...

A dent in fiscal credibility could postpone loosening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Dec 2023

Geopolitics: Following the return 116 hostages, negotiations broke down in receiving the remaining 136 hostages. Israel renewed its offensive and Hamas fired missiles into Israel. Hezbollah fired as well and Israel retaliated. It is not clear whether this renewed pressure will result in the resum...

Russia expanding military 15%

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2023

On December 1 Putin signed a presidential decree about this saying the expansion was needed due to the threat from Ukraine and NATO's ''aggressive activity'' seeking more members. The decree says there shall be no amendments to the draft system. There was a huge draft in 2022 of men who had alrea...

Self-rated poor families, a rising trend?

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Dec 2023

While the Philippines surpassed the dismal 2nd quarter 4.3% GDP growth with a 5.9% performance in the 3rdquarter, the results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey conducted from September 28-October 1, 2023 suggest the fruits of economic growth may not be spreading around evenly. Se...

GDP grew 8.8% up to June. Our forecasts remain positive but lower for 2023. 2024 will be a quasi-stagnant economy after the closing of the mining operation

PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2023 · 2 responses

The GDP growth rate until June reached 8.8%. For now, without knowing the complete GDP data, which has not been published by the statistical institute, we maintain our annual forecast at 5.5% due to a deceleration in the third quarter and disruptions in agricultural production, tourism, and the C...

Kazakhstan macro: Solving the budgetary puzzle

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 01 Dec 2023

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published a complete set of budgetary statistics for 10M23, which included the republican budget, combined budgets of the regions, the National Fund, and the consolidated budget. The republican budget is the cornerstone of the country’s public finances not only du...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, Gaza ceasefire ends, Bahrain loses positive outlook, UAE launches $30bn climate fund

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Dec 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The market was underwhelmed by extended OPEC+ cuts. * Saudi production in Q1 will be flat, UAE will rise by 1% and Kuwait and Oman will fall by -5%. * The Qatar-mediated ceasefire in Gaza ended today after a week, with Is...